Daryl Carter's Tips: Goodwood race will fall right in his lap 7/5

• Back Murphy's class act to land Welsh Champion Hurdle

• Haggas' Kathab is unexposed on testing ground

• A strong pace will see Kathab finish strongest at Goodwood

15:20 Ffos Las - Back Strong Leader @ BSP 1pt

While he would be a far more confident selection if the ground continues to dry and the going description was described as good to soft at the off, Strong Leader - currently 11/53.20 on the Betfair Sportsbook - is worth chancing on seasonal return.

He had a productive Novice campaign last year and did remarkably well at Aintree on officially good to soft ground, but that was immediately changed after the race to soft. He came from well off a steady pace and put in a tremendous finishing effort behind Supreme Novice Hurdle fourth Inthepocket. The clock backs up that performance when recording excellent closing sectionals.

The bare form of that race, with the useful Luccia in third and the handicapper reacting with an 11 lb rise for the fourth, Hansard, looks at least useful.

Interestingly, the handicapper only gave Strong Leader a three-pound rise in the weights, which puts him in this mix on this handicap debut.

He failed to handle the downhill run at Cheltenham when running well out of his depth in the Supreme Novice Hurdle at the Festival, and he probably doesn't have stacks in hand of the handicapper off of 143. Still, he is rated to be very competitive.

A move up in distance this season will surely be on the cards, and quicker ground is his optimum underfoot conditions. Still, Olly Murphy operates at an excellent strike rate in October every year, which tends to be one of his better months. Winning opportunities for Strong Leader may be few and far between in the deep winter ground, so perhaps he will be straight for this valuable early season prize.

Nemean Lion's target is the Greatwood - he may need this to knock the stuffing out of him. He improved as the season went on last year, and he looks fairly treated, so he is feared most ahead of County Hurdle winner Faivoir, who will appreciate any further rain.

Back the selection at the BSP, as he is probably at his basement price now.

16:45 Goodwood - Back Kathab @ 7/52.40 1pt

Despite being by Kingman Kathab - 7/52.40 on the Betfair Sportsbook - has a pronounced knee action, his Dam a winner on heavy ground, and he won convincingly earlier this year on good to soft ground at Haydock.

He recently stayed on very strongly on his all-weather debut at Kempton last time when tackling some older course specialists. His effort from well off the pace at Kempton caught the eye, and he may be ready to deliver on his earlier promise.

Goodwood rarely sets up for one coming from off the pace, but this race sees Thunder Ball, Grey's Monument, Mostawaa, Sanitiser and Sierra Blanca all likely to hold pace duties. At the same time, even Darkness has forced the issue this season (Golden Mile).

There's a bigger performance in the well-bred Kathab, and he could take some beating off a fair rating with this race likely to set up perfectly and 11/82.38 or bigger appeals.