Daryl Carter's Tips: Georgie 5/1 can blow away Clonmel rivals

• An informative Novice Chase at Carlisle to watch

• Hurricane Georgie can gain a well-deserved win

• Trip versatile and will enjoy the stamina test on deep ground

15:55 Carlisle - No Bet

I thought it was worth throwing my two-pence in on this Novice Chase race as this could prove informative throughout the season. The market is headed by the "talking horse" Giovinco @ 1/12.00, which is a ludicrously short price, having not jumped a fence under rules and only that surely on the fact that he has been spoken highly of rather than the depth of his form.

Lucinda Russell's unbeaten hurdler has looked very good in three starts under rules, cantering to victory in a poor three-runner Novice Hurdle at Ayr, winning eased down at Carlisle over horses rated 100, 99, 93 and 74 before an impressive Listed victory at the back end of last season in April at Perth.

He looked good in winning at Perth, but it's unwise to get carried away with that end-of-season form. He now tries his hand at chasing, for which he was beaten in two of his three Point To Points, and his victory was a narrow one over Gordon Elliott's Quantum Storm, who subsequently chased home Ballyburn (absolutely no match for him) in a bumper at Punchestown. The four-length third is also with Gordon Elliott but was well beaten next time along with the fourth (Point to Point).

This could prove a good starting point for Giovinco, though, with Good Risk At All a little clumsy over hurdles and the smart Hometown Boy returning from 929 days off the track, but the favourite was not as clean-cut at his hurdles last season as one would like and he has a mistake in him.

The fact that Giovinco will be held up means he will have to be faultless when making his ground up in the deepest race he has contested for some time. I have already seen one tipster put this horse up for Cheltenham's Brown Advisory without him even jumping a fence! To me this is utter madness.

Giovinco, to win a Brown Advisory, will need to improve in the region of 20 lbs for the switch to fences on his hurdle rating. That's entirely possible, and it has been done before, while the Albert Bartlett last year had no standout, so the division could be weak on the ground. Still, do you want to be backing a horse seven months out that has never jumped a fence and needs to improve 20 lbs at 16/117.00? It's just unwise.

That's not to say he won't win today, of course, given the state of his rivals.

Good Risk At All is a danger to him, having won here the first time out last season, and Sam Thomas has had his string ready to fire on their first outings, but I can see him making a mistake or six, and he wouldn't be one on my radar as of yet for anything significant over fences.

Hometown Boy is very interesting outside of the favourite and was progressive when last seen 929 days ago, while he has missed two engagements already this month, meaning he is probably fit as can be and has won off of a 350-day break. He is likely to make the running and was a Point To Point winner himself, albeit that form looks very poor (runner-up rated 72, third 92, and fourth 104) - he will surely need this outing, and this is only worth 10k while winning would hike his rating into the mid-140's (nothing outside the winner can be raised in the handicap) which would leave options few and far between.

I'd say he is here for the spin and then will look at one of the season's big handicaps - Novices tend to have a good record.

Alaphilippe was last seen finishing second in the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham, and that's easily the strongest handicap hurdle form in the race. He is not the biggest but should take to fences, having had plenty of experience in Point To Points, and he has won fresh. Still, the 588 days absence is not ideal, and no Paddy Brennan in the saddle (at Ludlow) suggests he might need this outing.

I've droned on a bit here for a race with no bet, but it's worth keeping a close eye on this contest.

I expect, as does the market and everyone else, to see Giovinco win this, but it's paramount that followers remember the shape his rivals are in today, so when the form gets "boosted", it's worth taking with a pinch of salt with half the field unlikely to be ready to put their best foot forward.

You can tell I am warming up for the Cheltenham Festival Focus column, can't you? That's coming back very soon!

16:20 Clonmel - Back Hurricane Georgie @ 5/16.00 1pt

The sole bet of the day comes in the form of Hurricane Georgie - 5/16.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who ran a race full of promise at Punchestown chasing home Minella Indo and might be able to get back to winning ways in calmer waters.

Today represents a significant drop back in distance, but she has shown to be extremely versatile regarding trips, and her form reads very strongly. She relentlessly chased home Jeremys Flame at Limerick in May last year when Minx Tiara was well held and ran with extreme credit in the Grade 2 Champion Chase at Gowran in October 2022 behind Easy Game, Kemboy and Battleoverdoyen when beaten seven lengths (jumped the last on terms).

This race rates her easiest assignment for some time, and repeating any of the runs mentioned above will be enough to get over the line today.

The testing ground will favour her and may give her a stamina edge over the returning Limerick Lace, who has her fitness to prove.

She rates a bet at 11/43.75 or bigger.