Daryl Carter Tips

Daryl Carter's Tips: Four for Friday with a 10/3 Ascot NAP

Daryl Carter.
Daryl Carter likes Subsequent at Ascot.

On Friday, Daryl Carter has four selections for Betfair Racing followers and heads to Ascot for his NAP at 10/34.33...

  • King William to reign at Fontwell

  • Classy Rhapsody can return with a win

  • Subsequent will relish Ascot conditions


14:35 Fontwell - Back King William Rufus @ 7/24.50 1pt

This market is propped up by Reach For The Moon, who had shown little over hurdles in three outings before scoring at Worcester 71 days ago. That race was handed to him on a plate and had no depth. His ex-flat exploits are likely why the market favours him, with the potential for more to come on that front. However, the form is poor, and the time was laughable.

Similar comments apply to Hell Hound's victory at Southwell on hurdling debut - a race that failed to clock a top-speed figure. He holds more promise than Reach For The Moon on his Point to Point second behind Jalon D'oudairies, but he has been off for 122 days, and he is more of a chasing type and one for much further than this 2m down the line.

Everything here points to King William Rufus - 7/24.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - making a winning return to action. He ended last season with a striking Plumpton victory in good time and followed up with a solid second to a progressive type in Yalla Habibi at Kempton.

He is the only horse in this field that has run to 110 plus over hurdles; a repeat of that will be enough to land this. He saddles a winner's penalty, five of which are negotiated by Freddie Gordon's claim, and thanks to him, he receives weight from his main market rivals, which should be enough to fend these off and gain a second career victory. Back the selection at 5/23.50 or bigger.


15:57 Ascot - Back Subsequent @ 10/34.33 1pt (NAP)

Table Talk was a good winner of the Melrose and is very much respected in his bid to back that up. However, he did get a good run-through on the favoured rail there, and today, there are entirely contrasting ground conditions.

For that reason, Subsequent - 10/34.33 on the Betfair Sportsbook - may be the answer, having run well 21 days ago at Doncaster when needing a stiffer stamina test, and today's extreme tough going will prove right up his street.

He was a ready winner at Newmarket on soft ground on his penultimate start. He was only narrowly held on his previous try at Salisbury behind Master Builder - a form line that ties in more closely with Tabletalk than the market suggests. He is one of the only horses in this field with ideal conditions, and the stiff 1m6f at Ascot will likely see him to the best effect.

He arrives on an upward curve with progressive RPR ratings, and Oisin Murphy is a positive in the saddle, having proven to get on well with him. The negatives are devilishly difficult to find, and if he takes another step forward like he has done the last two times, he must be in the mix at the finish.

Go Daddy is also respected on this ease in grade and may prove popular, but his stamina seemed to ebb away in Dortmund last time when he tried a 1m6f for the first time, and you will likely need to stay 2m under today's ground conditions.

Subsequent ticks plenty of boxes and looks the correct bet at 5/23.50 or bigger despite having eight pounds to find on official ratings. However, neither of the top two in the betting has recorded their 104 or 105 official ratings under today's conditions, and I make it more likely than the market that Subsequent can reach that level today.


16:40 Hexham - Back Cracking Rhapsody @ 3/14.00 1pt

It's worth taking a chance that Ewan Whillans has Cracking Rhapsody - 3/14.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - tuned up for his seasonal return as he looks on a fair mark returning to action on the balance of his two runs at the back end of last season.

The five-year-old improved significantly through the season, landing the competitive Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso before running an excellent third in the Scottish Champion Hurdle, and with only six hurdle starts under his belt, there must be more to come.

He returns to action, dropped into a Class 3, and returns to the scene of his Novice Hurdle debut win in November, and this is far less competitive than his last two assignments. Much of this race will undoubtedly depend on the selection's fitness level. Still, he ticks plenty of boxes outside of that concern, including drying ground for which his hurdle record reads a victory and a half-length defeat.

Coastguard Station almost certainly looks to be prepping for his chase campaign, while Salsada and Flordia Dreams were well behind the selection at Ayr. Got Grey has been picking up poor races this term and was quickly found out at Market Rasen six days ago, and this turnaround screams they are trying to squeeze as much juice out of him before the season proper starts.

However, they have bumped into a genuine Class 2 horse in Cracking Rhapsody, so I expect the selection to get the job done.


17:05 Ascot - Back Thunder Roar @ 14/115.00 1pt

There's a bigger performance in Thunder Roar - 14/115.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who returns to a straight track today for the first time since running an excellent second at Doncaster in the Spring Mile.

He is only three pounds higher today and down in grade compared to that race, and he has held his form well this season. His latest effort was a more encouraging one, which coincided with a return to a deep surface, taking his record on soft or worse to 2321131.

His penultimate outing on a slower surface came at Leicester behind Miss Cantik and Al Mubhir in a race that saw him reverse the form with the Doncaster Spring Mile winner. The runner-up is since a Listed winner and has been placed in a Group 3. That is strong form, and today's return to 1m looks like a good move. He is one of only a handful in this race, proven under today's deep ground.

It's challenging to suggest that many others in this field will thrive, but the straight mile, soft ground, and the drop in class are big positives to think Thunder Roar can finally gain a deserved victory.
Back the selection at 7/18.00 or bigger.


Now Read: Daryl Carter's Arc Runner-by-Runner Guide Here.


Recommended bets

DARYL'S P/L

2024 P/L = Next update (monthly) NOV 1st

2024 P/L = +91.48 ROI 10.30%

BSP P/L = +51.5 ROI 5.79%

2024 P/L Ante-post = +5.33

DARYL'S P/L HISTORY

2021 P/L = +187pts 12% ROI

2022 P/L = + 137.1pts ROI 8.72% +22.7pts BSP 1.44% ROI

2023 P/L = +112.63pts ROI 8.86% +99.4pts BSP 7.84% ROI

2023 P/L (Incl ante) Total = +146.63 ROI 11.5%

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