Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Runner-By-Runner Guide: 16 declared and confidence remains in both tips

• 16 stand their ground, as do I, with both tips

• Al Riffa must hold an excellent chance at 11/112.00

• Continuous will be ready to fire

• Sunway is not without a chance at 40/141.00

• Place £10 bet on any sport on the Betfair Exchange to start your Free Bet Streak

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Listen to Racing Only Bettor's Arc tips...

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It's an important day in the French racing calendar. This Sunday, Longchamp will host the latest renewal of Europe's biggest flat race, the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.

There's a typically strong home challenge with two French horses dominating the head of the market. But the Brits and the Irish cross the Channel in search of a seventh victory in the last 11 years. Or could this finally be the year for Japan? Here is all the info for the big race.

Where: Paris, Longchamp
When: 15:00, Sunday 6 October
Winner: £2,484,348
Weight For Age: 3yo from 4yo+ 6lb

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Sosie 7/24.50

Andre Fabre's representative, Sosie, will try to emulate Rail Link, which completed the Grand Prix de Paris/Niel/Arc treble in 2006. The home team has a solid contender in Sosie, who has improved with each outing this term. In his prep run for this, he took care of Delius, Look De Vega, and Ambiente Friendly, landing the Prix Niel over course and distance to remain unbeaten at 12 furlongs and improving his record to 3-3 at Longchamp.

He leads the market ahead of recent rival Look De Vega, but the form of Sosie's latest win can be questioned. Look De Vega had his measure at Chantilly in June and was likely undercooked for his first run since.

Sosie's overall form, which includes beating Illinois two lengths in the Grand Prix de Paris on his penultimate start, looks okay, but punters shouldn't be scared of this favourite. The Grand Prix de Paris form ties in with Los Angeles, who ran a solid race in defeat in the Irish Champion Stakes over a trip too short, and that suggests this race is wide open.

Sosie's Prix Niel victory was the slowest of the three trials run at Longchamp on 15 September. The other winners included Bluestocking, who clocked the fastest time by a distance of all three. However, all races were still steadily run, allowing little to get involved from off the pace.

Whether Sosie is good enough to land a race of this quality is still up for debate. Odds of 7/24.50 make little appeal, with the form and time figures suggesting improvement is certainly needed, particularly if copping a poor draw.

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Look De Vega 7/24.50

He lost his place at the head of this ante-post market following a defeat to Sosie in the Prix Niel when only managing a laboured third, but given that came following a three-month break, he is entitled to come on for the run. However, there is no conclusive evidence that he will stay this 1m4f following three previous runs over 1m2f.

He looked good when landing the Prix du Jockey Club in June, but the runner-up has been put in his place multiple times since then, and the fourth Ghostwriter has been similarly at Sandown, York, and Leopardstown. The Prix du Jockey Club form ties in with the Champion Stakes and gives several of these in this race a chance.

Look De Vega was reported to have done an "excellent" piece of work on the lead-up to this race and, after just four runs, could have plenty of improvement to come, particularly as the French like to build their horses up for a target. Still, stamina has to be a question for now, and he needs to bounce back to land this. Respected.

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Los Angeles 4/15.00

He was caught further back than ideal in the Irish Champion Stakes at a track favouring those ridden prominently and was running over a trip too short. There are good reasons to think he performs more significantly under optimal conditions today.

Still, his previous neck victory at York over Illinois and Kings Gambit under a brilliant Betfair ambassador Ryan Moore ride, or his narrow victory in the Irish Derby, is not good enough to win this. Perhaps he only does enough, but today will be his most challenging assignment yet, and he will need to improve.

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Shin Emperor 6/17.00

The Japanese raider showed his quality, proving that he was worthy of his place in this contest, when running an excellent third to Economics in the Irish Champion Stakes. That performance caught many eyes, suggesting it was the form line to take into the Arc. However, he had failed to win in four attempts in Japan before that, and he is unproven on ground slower than good. He rates a risky proposition, and backers hope he can take a step forward. Possible.

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Bluestocking 9/110.00

Bluestocking has excelled this year at the top level but fallen short against the boys. She finished down the field in the Juddmonte International and was easily brushed aside by Goliath in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth. Her only win in open company was on her debut at Salisbury over Tony Montana. There's little doubt she is high class, but she will need more.

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Delius 10/111.00

The J-C Rouget runner has been crying out for a strongly run race and acquitted himself well in two starts behind Sosie this term when unfavoured by the pace. He is another member of the home contingent who could have plenty of improvement after just a handful of starts, and he will have no trouble with soft ground, given his action.

Perhaps his Achilles heal is his lack of a change of gear if caught in a pocket, and the draw may prove crucial to his chances. However, it would be disappointing should he not be in the thick of things. As for the winner, perhaps there are more classier types here.

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Al Riffa 10/111.00

Joseph O'Brien has clarified that this race has been the seasonal target for Al Riffa from a long way out. He arrives following a career-best in Hoppegarten, a prep race won by previous Arc winners Alpinista and Torquator Tasso in recent years.

Al Riffa's win in Germany was the first time he had tried 1m4f in his short and turbulent career. He is entirely unexposed at this trip, and his previous efforts in fine company hinted multiple times that this distance would offer improvement.

The first port of call for many will be to ignore the form of the Berlin race. However, he won that effortlessly over a subsequent Group 3 winner back in third, and the three-year-old runner-up wasn't disgraced next time behind Fantastic Moon and Dubai Honour in Baden-Baden.

Al Riffa is the only horse this season who has looked like beating City Of Troy when a narrow second in the Sandown Eclipse, and that form has worked out well with Sea The Fire in fourth, narrowly denied in a Group 1 at Goodwood before scoring effortlessly over the boys at York. He was pulling away from Ghostwriter at the finish at Sandown despite being unfavourably positioned, which ties in with the Irish Champion Stakes form.

The son of Wootton Bassett shaped promisingly in last year's Prix Guillaume d'Ornano behind the subsequent 2023 Arc winner Ace Impact, and he looks ready to put in a career-best. There is lots to like, including the double-figure price.

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Aventure 16/117.00

She has run to a high level in her last three starts but was behind Bluestocking last time in her trial for this and must find further improvement. That's not out of the question, but she looks vulnerable against the boys.

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Mqse De Sevigne 20/121.00

She has won her last four starts and has not been outside the first two once since May 2022. She holds an excellent record at this venue. She clung on at heavy odds-on in the Sumbe Prix Jean Romanet last time from American Sonja, and that form will need significant improvement to land this. However, her ceiling may not be reached, and she is a fascinating candidate with some exceptional form at 10furlongs. Her downfall may be stamina on this first attempt beyond 1m2f.

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Fantastic Moon 22/123.00

He is top-class on his day, but that comes when the ground is riding fast, and drying weather will enhance his chances. Watch and wait.

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Continuous 28/129.00

A 2023 Doncaster St Leger winner before a creditable fifth in this race last year, beaten three lengths behind Ace Impact when caught in a pocket against the rail. He may have finished closer but for a blocked passage as he picked up strongly in the closing stages to catch the eye.

This season's roads have led to this race, so it's unwise to judge him too harshly on his latest defeat against Iresine when dictating his own steady pace. He will almost certainly prove a different proposition this time with a strong gallop to aim at, and the market has overreacted to his preparation by pushing him out to as big as 25/126.00 and 33/134.00 in a place.

He is almost certainly a top-class horse and must be taken seriously. Big, big player.

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Zarakem 33/134.00

On his Prince Of Wales's Stakes narrow second to Auguste Rodin at Royal Ascot in June, the four-year-old is not without a chance. Well down the field in the Juddmonte International since then, but he weakened quickly as though something was a miss there. One of the more interesting outsiders at a price.

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Sunway 40/141.00

David Menuisier's runner has been highly tried this year and never better than a narrow second to Los Angeles in the Irish Derby. Well behind Bluestocking at Ascot in July and ran only creditably when third in the Doncaster St Leger. It's tough to know what trip he is best at, but his profile suggests he wants slow ground, and he would be of interest if the ground came up heavy. Not without a small each-way chance at massive odds with a race highly likely to be run to suit him.

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Sevenna's Knight 50/151.00

He has proven to be a better four-year-old than at three, but that improvement has come at 1m7f, culminating in a career-best score when scoring here in the Group 2 Prix Vicomtesse Vigier. He may lack the gears for this trip, as seen when he was 14 lengths behind Dubai Honour, sixth of seven in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud in June. Stayers don't tend to win this race.

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Survie 50/151.00

Has plenty to find on all known form lines.

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Haya Zark 66/167.00

He was well-beaten in this race last year (finished 14/15) but has been steadily improving in recent outings, although his best efforts have come in smaller fields and at 10 furlongs. Hard to fancy.

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Daryl Carter's Arc Verdict

This is a wide-open renewal. The Irish Champion form line will be trendy among pundits and those looking for the winner of this race, but that form line ties in with lots of these runners through various races.

There's no getting away from the fact that Economics is a brilliant horse, but he did plenty wrong at Leopardstown, and simply following the horses that finished behind him may not be wise. The Japanese raider, Shin Emperor, is interesting, but it doesn't sit well with me that he struggled to win in his previous four races and he held a favourable position in the Irish Champion Stakes.

I am not keen on Los Angeles either. He may have been overshadowed by his stablemate City Of Troy this season, but beating a rallying Illinois and a poorly positioned King's Gambit at York is not outstanding form. At the same time, Lost Angeles was fortunate to win the Irish Derby from Sunway, who is a 40/141.00 chance for this race, and Roger Varian's Matsuri, who was denied a clear run and hasn't been seen since.

Sosie may have taken advantage of Look De Vega's lack of fitness last time in the Prix Niel, and although they are closely matched, it's the latter that I expect to come out on top just like he did in the Prix du Jockey Club. The Prix du Jockey Club is an interesting form line when looking through the fourth Ghostwriter and tying that into the Irish Champion, but that form is not so good and that view is taken with the winner being well positioned in a slowly run race.

The above takes out the top of the market, and I have turned to two horses. Al Riffa - 11/112.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - looks good value at double-figure odds. This season, he was the only horse who looked as though he might peg back City Of Troy when second in the Eclipse at Sandown, giving away lumps of weight. City Of Troy was well positioned in a race narrowly quicker than the handicap winner Blake.

For that reason, it was well worth upgrading Al Riffa's effort. He allowed the winner to get the jump on him, having sat at the rear of the field, and was forced to make up lots of ground. That effort has been missed in this market.

His price is overshadowed by people underestimating his form in Germany on his latest start. Still, the Eclipse form gives him every chance in this race, and the Berlin performance confirms he has the stamina required to be involved. He is not ground-dependent and gave the firm impression in previous starts - including the Eclipse -that 1m4f will see him unlock further improvement.

He reappeared in the Prix Ganay in April, and his trainer said the Arc was the long-term plan there, so from an ante-post view, there is no problem backing him now. He makes an appeal at 10/111.00 or bigger.

I will double up in this race as I have no interest in anything at single-figure prices. Al Riffa would be the strongest fancy in this race, but I will have something on Continuous 16/117.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook. However, I must say that there are as big as 25/126.00 and 33/134.00 out there. I always felt this season was about returning to this race for him, and he is overpriced.

I'd ignore any of his prep runs, as connections will have him bang on for this as they do a French-style preparation, and it feels like they have been building him up. He was eye-catching in this race last year, and this renewal is nowhere near as strong. Snatch it up if you can get 20/121.00 or bigger! He was 36.035/1 in the first round of Betfair Exchange betting. I will play win-only, but seeing him out of the frame is tough, so I wouldn't put you off an each-way bet.

Sunway makes it into my first three. If the ground is on the slower side, then I expect him to make his presence felt. He should be well-suited to being covered up in a fast-run race, and if he can be positioned correctly and delivered late, he could be running into the frame. However, I suspect he may prove a "value loser". By that, I mean go off at half his current price but not be up to winning the race.

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1. Al Riffa
2. Continuous
3. Sunway

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