Daryl Carter Tips

Daryl Carter's Tips: Back Lowton at Leicester to love conditions

Daryl Carter.
Daryl Carter has three bets on Tuesday.

Daryl Carter looks to continue his fine form and starts a fresh week on Tuesday with three selections...

  • Lowton is handicapped to have a big say at Leicester

  • Two-pronged attack at Newcastle

  • Take advantage of the extra place races on the Sportsbook

16:55 Newcastle - Back Haunted Dream @ 11/26.50 1pt e/w

It's good to see Military March back on the race track after three years off, but he has plenty to prove in a handicap saddling 10st 4lb off of a rating of 107 on his first start on the all-weather, so he must be taken on. Even if he is A1 and 100% fit, this mark is not easy to defy.

One of two that look overpriced is Ed Dunlop's Haunted Dream - 11/26.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who has held his form exceptionally well this season in some tip-top handicap contest and arrives having only been beaten three lengths in the Cambridgeshire at Newmarket when finishing off his race strongly.

His form is rock-solid, with an excellent 2nd of 15 at the Glorious Goodwood Festival to subsequent USA Group 3 winner among a handful of excellent runs this term, and he has left the impression that he is a winner in waiting given the right opportunity.

He now returns to the AW scene for the first time since his seasonal return in April, where he was a cosy winner, and he is 4-6 in this sphere with a further second and third placing.

He goes back up in a trip for which he was a big eye-catcher in the Old Rowley Cup at Newmarket last October when coming from a very unpromising position to chase home two useful Godolphin horses (one now rated 113). He has only had one subsequent try at this trip when beaten five lengths in the Duke Of Edinburgh at Royal Ascot.

He has bags of stamina and was an eased-down winner over this trip earlier in his career at Lingfield. Today's race outside of the returning favourite rates an ease in grade, and this looks like a good opportunity for him to be rewarded for his consistency this term.

Back him each-way but no shorter than his current 11/26.50.


16:55 Newcastle - Back Haunted Dream e/w @ 11/26.50

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16:55 Newcastle - Back Sir Chauvelin @ 14/115.00 0.5pt e/w

Sir Chauvelin's - 14/115.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - AW record reads 16110041648303133333. At the same time, four of those victories have come here at Newcastle, and when looking at this record over today's distance of 1m4f, the form figures read far more appealing of 311131.

He may now be long in the tooth about to turn 12. However, he proved the fire still burns bright when a winner in the Racing League over 2m recently, and that was only his second start on the AW this season (the other was a four-length defeat in the Northumberland Plate ahead of some of these).

He is on an almost career-low rating and is weighted to still have a say in matters.

The old boy has been in the first three in 12 of his 20 AW starts, and at a big price, he is worth a small each-way play, with the Betfair Sportsbook paying four places in this race.

16:55 Newcastle - Back Sir Chauvelin e/w @ 14/115.00

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17:10 Leicester - Back Lowton @ BSP 1pt (NAP)

There's plenty of pace on in this race, with the likes of Able Kane, Marshal Dan and Outrun The Storm all likely to be forcing the issue.

Able Kane makes the most appeal of that trio with the switch from the blinkers to the visor, for which his record in that headgear reads 1102216232, and the return to this venue is another positive, given he has scored on his last three visits. Rod Milman's charge is more than capable on his day, and returning to a Class 3 contest can see him go well.

Still, with just the seven runners, the each-way opportunity is off the table, and soft ground over this seven-furlong distance might stretch the 2021 winners' stamina.

Marshal Dan will need the cheek-pieces to spark a revival - although he was better at Salisbury last time - but is not the force of old. Soar Above hasn't won on turf for two years and is another, perhaps on the downgrade, and Outrun The Storm's profile would suggest that soft ground is against him.

Hodler is surprisingly the second favourite for this at the time of writing but arrives on the back of his worst performance of the season.

The percentage call is to side with Lowton - 15/82.88 on the Betfair Sportsbook - for who it could be argued is a generous price, having finished off his race well at York and despite suffering defeat in that hot seven-furlong handicap he improved on any previous efforts in the first-time blinkers.

His victory at this venue - although clocking a slow time in a weak race - was dominant, and his debut form when closing to the line behind two now rated in the 90s suggests he has more to offer off of a workable mark of 87.

Soft ground and seven furlongs are undoubtedly his optimum conditions, so it would be folly to think there wasn't more to come from the unexposed three-year-old - an age group with a good record in this contest.

In the hope that Callum Rodriguez is wise to the strong early pace, he should have this set up for him and is the day's best punt at 15/82.88 or bigger, but I firmly expect support for one or two others so his BSP is likely to be better than his current morning odds.

17:10 Leicester - Back Lowton @ BSP

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Since Jan 1st 2023 - Updated Monthly - Next update November 1st

Advised Stakes = +69.5pts ROI 6.75%

BSP = +76.4pts ROI +7.4%


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