Daryl Carter's Tips: 4/1 Venetia and Deutsch can dance into Huntingdon's winner's enclosure

• One Thursday selection

• Unexposed and expected to improve

• Well-handicapped Williams horse can deliver

End Of Year Review

Playing at Betfair-only prices has been a big challenge in 2024 as they are the brightest traders in the game who rarely miss a trick. However, I have enjoyed this exceptionally tough year-long duel, but they should be warned that improvement is forthcoming! Playing against the best traders in the business and making a profit is rewarding. For a tipster playing against a single bookmaker, there's no sneak a stand-out 33/134.00 when the average price is 16/117.00, as some may, no best odds guaranteed, and certainly no chance - win or lose - this column will throw it's toys out the pram and scrap a P/L to try and hide from the shortcomings!

I am highly critical of myself, as I want this column to continue to improve year after year--hence, the in-depth P/L review every month. One criticism I have of myself is that I've not been as consistent as I have in previous years--no excuses, but perhaps some personal circumstances have affected that. On the positive side, I have learnt more this year than any other to propel us forward into 2025.

2024 Ended + 58.93pts with a 5.03% ROI, and + 8.7pts 0.74% ROI to BSP.

Much of this column's demographic is Saturday players, and playing this day alone during 2024 would have yielded a profit of +152.98pts with a 45.94% ROI to advised prices and +162.9pts and 48.91% ROI to BSP.

Since January 2022, if you had followed on a Saturday, you would have made a 31.22% ROI.

Over the last three years, the column has had a healthy ROI with higher staked points, meaning confidence has been well placed.

1.5pts = 24.97% ROI
2pts = 7.05% ROI
2.5pts = 34.20% ROI
3pts = 82.63% ROI
4pts = 39.69% ROI
5pts = 175.00% ROI

During the National Hunt season, the most profitable races for followers to back have been chase races with a 17% ROI since 2022.

2025 Season

I made a few changes during the 2024 season that I will keep for this year. One was deciding to make >90% of our bets in class 3 and above races. That will stay unless my hand is forced like today, but bets below this class 3 will be at a minimum. Another is keeping anything priced below 2/13.00 out of this column for most of the year (Cheltenham and exceptional value-priced horses are the exceptions).

Midweek is the time I have found the toughest to find winners, mainly due to low-class racing. Weekdays may see a reduction of selections and provide more insight rather than advised bets. Secondly, I want to eliminate 0.5pt win bets because, if confidence is that low, they shouldn't be on the column, and they have an ROI of -4.57% over the last three years and -22% in 2024. Thirdly, E/W bets were something I was tempted to see gone, but 0.5pt e/w bets have been profitable along with 2pt e/w bets. They will stay but be used with extra place races on the Sportsbook in the main.

Overall, I hope the above will help us elevate the ROI over the year. Further information is available on request, but Happy New Year, and let's have a cracking 2025.

13:25 Huntingdon - Back Fire Dancer @ 4/15.00 1pt

3

Fire Dancer (Fr)

• J: Charlie Deutsch
• T: Venetia Williams
• F:

A chance is given to Fire Dancer - 4/15.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who I once, maybe stupidly thought, could have graded ambitions following his debut for Venetia Williams at Ludlow in January 2023. Things haven't quite gone according to plan since then, but he was sent off a 9/25.50 chance for the Timeform Novices Handicap Chase at Cheltenham on his second outing under market confidence.

It's been a bumpy road since then, but he is on a favourable mark of 108. He shaped encouragingly at Leicester on his seasonal debut in an Amateur riders race under Lucy Turner, having done too much too soon. He looked like he would improve for that outing, and today, Charlie Deutsch takes over in the saddle in this very winnable race.

A repeat of his two runner-up efforts in the Spring of last year will see him go close in a race where most have something to prove. He is entirely unexposed at this trip, which is a rarity at this level.

He looks worth chancing, and the right-handed flat, fast track and this 2m4f are the ideal combinations to see him at his best. Play at 4/15.00 or bigger.

Abingworth looked like a return to form was imminent last time, but his jumping out to the left will do him no favours on this right-handed course.

Now Read: More Horse Racing Tips Here.