Daryl Carter's Tips: 4/1 Varian's Dragon can finally fire at Lingfield

• Back the Grey to relish Lingfield return

• NAP Dragon Icon will repay followers' faith at Lingfield

• Hermino can see a door finally open at Newbury

• We're now NRMB on all 28 Cheltenham Festival races

• Free Racing Multiple Every Weekend Until Cheltenham

14:02 Lingfield - Back Aramis Grey @ 5/16.00 1pt

Aramis Grey - 5/16.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - looks to have found a fine opportunity to score and is expected to return to the winner's enclosure at a venue where she has a fine record.

The seven-year-old boasts form figures of 13112 here at Lingfield and is unexposed at seven furlongs with a career record of 7212422267212, and amongst those, some narrow defeats when better than the bare result.

She took the scalp of the very useful Vadream on her last visit here, which came over course and distance when unfavoured by the weights, maintaining a perfect 2-2 over course and distance record.

She sits on a very workable rating and consistently posts RPR ratings in the 100s. Today is the day she can put it all together with absolutely optimal conditions, returning from a mid-season break, having proven to go well fresh.

Shades Of Summer looks a tad vulnerable at this seven-furlong distance, and the selection can reverse Wolverhampton form. The Jane Chapple-Hyam runner was slightly flattered at Newcastle last time when getting the first run on Nine Tenths in a steady run affair, so she may be overbet here.

Cloud Cover looked useful at Kempton, but it could have been a better race, and the time was pedestrian. She could be vulnerable off a career-high rating now of 90, having gone up seven pounds.

Aramis Grey appeals at 4/15.00 or bigger.

16:22 Lingfield - Back Dragon Icon @ 4/15.00 3pt

Dragon Icon - 4/15.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - was costly for this column the last couple of times I backed him, but having caught the eye at Kempton when steaming home from off the pace to be beaten just half a length last time frustratingly, he now looks ready to strike.

The four-year-old looked in desperate need of his first outing here in January when fitted with a first-time hood, and it was a significant step forward at Kempton last time when connections removed that headgear.

On both occasions, he was notably weak in the market, but I firmly expect him to be stronger today.

Cameron Noble should be able to drop in from stall 12 in a race with stacks of pace, and he ticks plenty of boxes. The progressive youngster goes off the same mark as at Kempton last month, which is well within reach, and today's track, for which he was a striking winner last May, lends itself to strong finishers.

The step up to 1m2f is positive, and I am unequivocally convinced that he will leave this rating of 93 well behind him. The selection is the only horse in this field that has the potential to make up into a pattern performer, and with a bit of luck in running, he rates a confident bet at 11/43.75 or bigger.

16:45 Newbury - Back Hermino AA @ 13/27.50 1pt

It's only a matter of time before Hermino AA - 13/27.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - gets off the mark this season, and he arrives on the back of a career-best at Sandown last time when bumping into an unexposed rival who will end up proving to be miles ahead of the handicapper in due course.

He went down fighting at Sandown and is in a far lesser race, and today, under the pilotship of useful five-pound claimer Freddie Mitchell, he looks fairly treated on the latest evidence.

The return to a softer surface for the selection is another positive, with a career record on deep ground over hurdles now reading 312, and today's combination of 3m and soft ground looks right up his street.

Both G A Henty and Young Butler have ground concerns regarding their chances on Friday. Still, they are respected, particularly the former, who I am keen on when tackling a more suitable surface.

Back Hermino AA at 11/43.75 or bigger.

16:57 Lingfield - Back McLean House @ 3/14.00 1pt

There seems to be little reason to abandon our last time out winning selection McLean House - 3/14.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who has won snugly the last twice and is unexposed at this 1m distance and now 2-2 at Lingfield.

The four-year-old gets on tremendously well with Oisin Murphy, and he indeed has more to offer, having been value for much more than the short winning distances last month. He is bred to excel over 1m and further, so it would be folly to think there isn't more to come after just one outing over this 1m trip.

He gets chunks of weight from the big two in the market, and with a good pace set-up, he could easily be the answer and rack up the hat trick despite being 1lb out of the handicap.

This race was mentioned immediately after winning here last month, and from a fair draw in stall three for his running style, there look to be few negatives to his chances of coping with this step-up in grade.

Any 3/14.00 or bigger is acceptable.

P/L Update

February

Advised Stakes = -20.52 ROI -33.37%
To BSP = -31.8 ROI -51.73%

February has been a bit of a blood bath, but I take solace in the previous data. In 2022, we had a good January and a poor February; in 2023, we had a poor January and a good February, and this year seems to have shown the same patterns.

Jan =
Advised Stakes = +29.38 ROI 33.59%
BSP = +9.5 ROI 10.89%

Feb =
Advised Stakes = -20.52 ROI -33.37%
BSP = -22.3 ROI -51.73%

Current yearly total 2024 =
Advised Stakes = +8.86 ROI 5.95%
BSP = -22.3 ROI -14.96%

BY CODE

AW

ADVISED = -0.4 ROI -1.36%
BSP = -11 ROI -31.44%

CHASE

ADVISED = -21.7 ROI -40.56%
BSP -29.3 ROI -54.75%

HURDLE

ADVISED = 31.03 ROI 51.30%
BSP = +18 ROI 29.76%

BY DAY

BY TRACK

Cheltenham Podcast Tips: 33/1 County Hurdle bet for Martin Dixon