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Three Saturday bets
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Star Anthem is well overpriced at any double-figure odds
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Mostabshir can land the Ayr Gold Cup
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Back Movie Maker to prove a group horse in a handicap at Newbury
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Ryan Moore Superboost
Betfair Ambassador Ryan Moore rides the progressive sprinter No Half Measures in the opening race at Newbury this afternoon, and if you fancy her chances of running well then you can back her at the super-boosted price of 1/12.00, from 4/61.67, to finish in the top five
She's won two of her last three races and was beaten less than a length on her last start in similar company, so to take advantage of today's Superboost just click on the odds in the below bet banner to go directly to the pre-loaded betslip.
Back No Half Measures to Finish Top 5 in 13:30 Newbury
Listen to this week's Racing Only Bettor for more tips...
It's a quiet betting day for me. The Ayr Gold, Silver, and Bronze cups are typically races you throw money away at, and unless I like a single horse, I rarely play myself. As for the other ITV action, honestly, I found it too tricky to find a bet. With the ground change at Newbury and the big field action, I felt wise to just play slow. Best of luck, whatever you're betting today.
This is wide open, and the ground getting softer is another reason to be wary of the Maiden winner, Powerful Glory, who faces an entirely different test today than the one he faced on his debut at Pontefract.
I mentioned Shadow Of Light on the podcast because I thought he would handle the ground better than most. Honestly, it was hard to make any selection with the weather unknown. Still, since then, Shadow Of Light has contracted in price, and this is wide open to considering something else.
Star Anthem--18/119.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook-- must be overpriced based on his previous effort 95 days ago when beaten two lengths in the Coventry Stakes. As Shadow Of Light did at York, he finished narrowly behind Cool Hoof Luke but came from miles off the pace with a strong finishing effort.
The form of his neck second over the minimum trip here to Hawaiian looks good and has worked out well enough for him not to be a back number in this company. He has already proven to handle cut in the ground when scoring at Bath over what I expect to be an excellent rival in Red Sand.
Providing all is well, he has plenty in his favour to think he can be involved, and any double-figure price is off to me. Perhaps he will need this outing, but he has far less to find than the market suggests and is a cracking bet at the prices.
15:15 Newbury - Back Star Anthem
This is devilishly tricky, but I have long thought that six furlongs were the ideal trip for Mostabshir - 11/112.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - and coupled with a high draw (which I find favourable), he is a must for this column following a good effort in the Stewards Cup.
Granted, he was on the favoured side of the track at Goodwood, but he had little room to make his challenge and simply followed the winner's path home. The only race he won came at York in a Novice when he displayed an outstanding turn of foot to win a slowly run race, and since then, he has been tried over trips too far. He also made a promising move in the Buckingham Palace before his effort petered out, and much has pointed to the move back to six furlongs being a good one.
This is obviously wide open, so confidence is limited, but he is unexposed at this trip, and he should be well suited to a big field and strong pace scenario, so he looks worth chasing.
15:35 Ayr - Back Mostabshir
Suppose there is a group horse in this competitive handicap. In that case, it may well be the unexposed three-year-old Movie Maker who returns to action following a 260-day absence but is selected as an overpriced improver.
Saeed bin Suroor has an outstanding record with horses that have been to Meydan, had a gelding operation, and returned to Britain. It was an angle I followed blindly for years to good effect, and the reason I think he sends his horses to Meydan before entering handicaps is to make it difficult for the UK handicapper to get a grip on them.
Suroor also has an excellent record of turning a horse out for the first time following an absence, and the presence of Oisin Murphy, who has ridden the yards for two recent winners, is an obvious sign that they expect him to be straight today.
Now that all that housekeeping is out of the way, the angle with him is the obvious potential, having had just three outings. He was an eye-catcher on his debut last August behind Elmonjed, and he then bolted up here at Newbury on heavy ground in the style of a potential group horse. On the figures, he was the best horse to win that Newbury contest in the last ten years, and the distant runner-up is now rated 87, the fourth 92, and the eighth 90.
Today's conditions will differ from what most have faced this season, but Movie Maker should relish the testing ground, and he has untapped potential at this seven-furlong trip. He was thought highly enough to be entered in the Jumeirah Guineas Trial in January at Meydan. Suroor has an excellent strike rate at this Newbury venue, and it may be no surprise, given Dubai sponsors the course. However, that won't make the selection run faster, but his figure here last September was excellent.
The market has not missed him, and his draw might not be optimal, but he could be a class above this lot, and at 4140/1 or bigger; I am happy to find out (he has a Balmoral entry). However, I will take BSP in such a big field.
City Of York won this race in good style last term and is back for another crack and rates the chief threat.
17:00 Newbury - Back Movie Maker
PODCAST SELECTIONS
For transparency purposes and for those who may have missed the podcast, I will list the Podcast selections at the bottom of this Saturday column each week. While in an ideal world, the podcast and column would be identical, the podcast only covers the ITV races, and as a column, I have the entire racing on Saturday to look through. The advised selections for the column (which must make a profit over the year) are listed with point stakes.
13:15 Ayr - Obliex
13:30 Newbury - Significantly / Relief Rally
13:50 Ayr - Sir Busker
14:04 Newbury - Waxing Gibbons / Grand Alliance
14:25 Ayr - No Bet
14:40 Newbury - Involvement
15:00 Ayr - Sky Majesty
15:15 Newbury - Shadow Of Light (now changed)
15:35 Ayr - Mostabshir
Now Read: More Horse Racing Tips Here.