Daryl Carter's Tips: 10/1 for Saturday's Irish Champion Stakes is far too big

• Praying the ground is dry enough for NAP material 14/115.00 Albasheer

• Jan Brueghel can land the Leger

• 10/111.00 Underestimated Ghostwriter can land the Champion Stakes at Leopardstown

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Illinois Superboost

The Aidan O'Brien-trained Illinois is the favourite to win today's feature race at Doncaster, the St Leger at 15:40. He is the highest-rated horse in the race and has never finished out of the frame in all seven of his career starts, including finishing first or second in all of his last four races.

Today the Betfair Sportsbook have super-boosted the price of Illinois to finish in the top two from 8/131.61 to 1/12.00. To take advantage of this superboost just click on the odds in the below bet banner to go directly to the pre-loaded betslip.

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13:50 Doncaster - Back Wolf Of Badenoch @ 4/15.00 1pt

The favourite Chancellor is very respected and could be anything. He has two impressive victories here at Doncaster, and there is every reason to enlist him as the favourite for this despite his latest being the slowest of three seven furlong contests on the card. I want two stabs at this.

Wolf Of Badenoch - 4/15.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - was impressive on debut in a Maiden here before being thrown into the deep end in Group 2 company at Goodwood in the Vintage Stakes. He gave away too much ground at the off and was too inexperienced to handle the speed test around the Sussex venue. However, he shaped well, coming from well off the gallop and widest of all, to finish a staying on second, and the sectionals point to a significant upgrade, suggesting that he was tactically at a disadvantage.

The return to Doncaster and the more conventional stiffer stamina test will suit. At the same time, I expect him to race set up for a last burst. 4/15.00 or bigger is acceptable.

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13:50 Doncaster - Back Aftermath @ 16/117.00 1pt

I was at Newbury the day Aftermath - 16/117.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - went off favourite on his debut for Aidan O'Brien, but he raced on the wrong part of the track, and that effort is worth marking up. He was very green early on and clueless through the mid-part of the race, but he clocked the fastest final furlong in the contest won by Mukaber, who is no slouch (he was in my tracker) and raced on the favoured side of the track.

Aftermath did the best of those racing on the near side, and it looked as though the penny had dropped inside the final furlong once the race was over. It would be folly to think the son of Justify couldn't learn a good deal from that, particularly as he finished off his race like a fresh horse, and it's no surprise that he is the choice of Wayne Lordon.

O'Brien's runners have come on leaps and bounds this season for their first run - he could prove an entirely different proposition today. It might prove significant that O'Brien throws him in here on just his second start - something the trainer has not done with any runner in the last ten years in this contest.

This is a wide-open renewal unless the favourite is a weapon for which the numbers don't suggest. It makes no sense that a well-bred colt like Aftermath, who holds Group 1 entries (all the yards two-year-olds do), is the outsider of this field, and if Ryan Moore were here, he would be closer to second favourite. The market has made too much of Ryan Moore's absence, and I can't let him go off a double-figure price as I expect him to go off half that and be the chief threat to Wolf Of Badenoch, so I am happy to play the pair.

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14:25 Doncaster - Already Advised Albasheer @ 14/115.00 1pt win

I already advised Albasheer @ 14/115.00 ante-post in Wednesday's column, which you can read here. I am happy with our position, and there is no need to go in again at half the price. I'd suggest keeping a close eye on the ground for those who have not backed him. He holds excellent claims in the hope that it has dried out enough and is NAP material should it ride quicker than Thursday, and 7/18.00 or bigger is acceptable to join the ride.

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14:40 Chester - Back Vera Verto @ 11/26.50 1pt

Vera Verto - 11/26.50 on the Betfair Sportsbook - holds sound claims for Gavin Cromwell in this valuable race, having proven her wellbeing at Killarney last time when chasing home a solid yardstick in Prydwen.

That was an excellent prep run for this race, and she indicated that a return to form is imminent. Her bouncing back to form last time mirrors what she did last year, suggesting the back end of the season is likely the time to catch her. She is now well handicapped, having ended last term as high as 95, and her excellent Listed second at Bath is brilliant form in the context of this handicap.

She has shown a liking for a slow surface, with form figures of 2213 on the flat in the last three years. At Killarney, she left the impression that she could relish this trip. She pulled well clear at Bath in that aforementioned Listed race, and that was the last time she tackled soft ground. That was over 1m6f; she was clear on level weights with the now 104-rated One Evening.

Today's rating in the 80's should prove no trouble, and she is likely to be ridden forward by the excellent Adam Farragher. 5/16.00 or bigger appeals.

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15:00 Doncaster - Back Kinross @ BSP 2.5pt

I mentioned mid-week that I felt Kinross was too short at 13/82.63, and part of me was still frustrated from having a good punt on him at Goodwood. However, ego aside and analysis-driven, he looks like an attractive proposition at the final declaration stage. However, with as big as 9/43.25 on the broader marketplace, it's best to hold off for his BSP, which I expect to be around the 5/23.50 mark.

The case is simple. Today is the first time Kinross has had optimum conditions since running second in the Group 1 Foret in October last year.

He is a horse that has always been productive in the autumn, and he gave a firm indication in this column that he was ready to strike at Goodwood last time. Goodwood was his first race of the season over his optimum trip, and it was a mess of a race. He was caught too far out of his ground but still came off exceptionally well on the sectional figures and must be granted an upgrade for that effort.

Today, he returns to a race he won two years ago, and this time, he has no penalty. While we know all there is to know about him, the bare facts are that he still sets an incredibly high standard for these rivals to aim at.

Lake Forest is likely to be well supported in this market, but despite shaping as seven furlongs will suit, he still must prove it. He and Poet Master are the two on-the-speed figures that have gotten close to Kinross, but they are still far off even on Kinross's most recent run at Goodwood.

Others are likely to be supported in the market, so he could go off a favourable price but take no less than 13/82.63.

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15:25 Leopardstown - Back Ghostwriter @ 10/111.00 1pt

A chance is taken with Ghostwriter - 10/111.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook - who has been underestimated on his outstanding third in what can only be described as the most fantastic race for a generation - The Juddmonte International. There was no disgrace in finishing behind two horses in Cadalagan and City Of Troy, who would and will likely sweep all before them this season.

Therefore, Ghostwriter must be the form horse in the race, and he has improved with every outing this term. Furthermore, will likely be well positioned under Richard Kingscote from a good draw in stall two.

Ghostwriter offers good each-way value to those inclined, but I will take a win-only stab at him in the hope he has further progression to come. On a straight-form line through Bluestocking (well behind the selection in fourth at York), there is no way he should be a double-figure price compared to Auguste Rodin, who has been fortunate to win this season.

Economics could be anything, and he has looked excellent in three outings this season. However, this is more of a speed test than a stamina-sapping one, and he needed every yard in Deauville last time while coming from off the pace here is not easy.

Only Auguste Rodin knows which Auguste Rodin will turn up, and Los Angeles is not quick enough for this ten-furlong test. Luxembourg is perhaps the most exciting betting proposition from the Ballydoyle team, but Ghostwriter has his optimal conditions and has only raced once (Juddmonte) this season on fast ground.

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15:40 Doncaster - Already advised Jan Brueghel @ 10/34.33 1pt

I am happy with our position on Jan Brueghel. He was advised mid-week at 10/34.33, which you can read here, and the confidence remains. I would not put anyone off backing him at 11/43.75 or bigger.

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PODCAST SELECTIONS

For transparency purposes and for those who may have missed the podcast, I will list the Podcast selections at the bottom of this Saturday column each week. While in an ideal world, the podcast and column would be identical, the podcast only covers the ITV races, and as a column, I have the entire racing on Saturday to look through. The advised selections for the column (which must make a profit over the year) are listed with point stakes.

13:50 Doncaster - Back Wolf Of Badenoch and good mention for Aftermath

14:05 Chester - Al Quareem

14:25 Doncaster - Albasheer

14:40 Chester - Vera Verto

15:00 Doncaster - Kinross

15:40 Doncaster - Jan Brueghel

16:15 Doncaster - No Bet

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Now Read: More Horse Racing Tips Here.

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