Daryl Carter Tips

Cheltenham Festival Focus: Back this 25/1 Supreme Novice hope, and prepare for an Xmas cracker

  • Daryl Carter
  • Published on
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  • 5:00 min read
Daryl Carter.
Daryl Carter chances a 25/1 Supreme Novice Hurdle bet.

Daryl Carter's Cheltenham Festival Focus returns with another edition, and this week he looks ahead to the Christmas period to prepare followers for ante-post Festival moves and adds a 25/126.00 Supreme hope...


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In week nine of the Cheltenham Focus column, Daryl Carter rounds up the notable action relevant to the Cheltenham Festival from a quiet seven days. He dives into the Christmas action to keep followers ahead of ante-post moves and adds a further selection to his ante-post list.


Grade 1 Stayers Hurdle picture still up in the air despite Crambo's Longwalk Hurdle win

On Monday, Lecky Watson won a very slowly run Beginners Chase at Naas, beating 2024 Supreme Novice winner Slade Steel. The fact that the winner could score on yielding ground over a trip short of his best doesn't reflect well on the runner-up, Slade Steel, who looks to have gone off the boil and can't be considered for the festival in this form. The victor has a good attitude but lacks the class of a potential Brown Advisory winner and may be more of an Ultima Handicap type.

On Friday at Ascot, Johnnywho was a bitterly disappointing Grade 2 Howden Noel Novices' Chase favourite. That should have been a very winnable opportunity. A bad blunder at the ditch didn't help, but one suspects he is likely to be lined up for a handicap at the festival, and the National Hunt Chase but not be far from the mark, considering two of his siblings ran over 3m5f plus. One should keep an eye on when betting comes alive.

At Ascot on Saturday, Crambo won back-to-back Grade 1 Longwalk Hurdles and was cut from 66/167.00 into 16/117.00 for the Stayers Hurdle - the shortest-priced runner behind Teahupoo 7/42.75. However, the 148-rated Beauport, whose proximity in third was less than two lengths, brings the form down a touch. Strong Leader finished a 75-length tenth, and the unexposed runners, The Wallpark and Shoot First, didn't produce the goods, although the former may get closer in March in a more vigorous run affair. This was Crambo's Gold Cup, and while he is open to further improvement, I'm yet to be convinced Cheltenham is his track, and he wouldn't be a short price to confirm form with the runner-up either.

The Stayer's Hurdle division looks wide open, and nothing in this race made me concerned for our Langer Dan bet. The horse to take from the race was, The Wallpark, who may suit some headgear.


Market Movers from the last week!

Daryls movers - 23 Dec.png


What's On This Week - Prepare for a Christmas cracker!

The Christmas action will be very informative for Cheltenham Festival ante-post bettors, and in this section, I highlight potential market moves before they happen.

We start at Kempton on Boxing Day, where the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices' Chase is one of the weakest renewals for some time. The betting is headed by Albert Bartlett, runner-up The Jukebox Man. He is currently 12/113.00 for the Brown Advisory, but even victory here will not see his price shorten too much.

One of the big movers in the ante-post Sportsbook markets could be Constitution Hill - currently 11/43.75 on the Betfair Sportsbook for the Champion Hurdle. Should he return to his best and beat the current Champion Hurdle favourite Lossiemouth, he will surely be more like 5/61.84, especially as his stablemate Sir Gino will head over fences the following day. It's decision time for those who want to be with Constitution Hill, but his frailty still means he is not an ideal ante-post holding.

The King George could have a bearing on the Cheltenham Gold Cup meeting. Grey Dawning is 16/117.00 and Spillane's Tower 10/111.00 for the Gold Cup. They are the most likely movers from the race.

The 2m Juvenile Grade 2 features on the Leopardstown card, and Willy De Houelle looks to reverse the form with Naturally Nimble from 25 days ago. A victory here will send the Mullins runner back to the top of the Triumph Hurdle market - currently 12/113.00. This is the same race connections won with Lossiemouth two years ago.

Another race impacting the Brown Advisory market is the Long Distance Novice Chase at Leopardstown. Stellar Story, Croke Park, and Better Days Ahead all have entries but no Impaire Et Passe.

At Aintree on Boxing Day, the Grade 1 Formby Novices Hurdle is headed by Potters Charm, currently 14/115.00 for the Turners Novices Hurdle. He drops back to 2m here, which is a strange move but this is a poor excuse for a Grade 1.

On the 27th at Chepstow, French Juvenile Nietzsche Has holds a surprising Grade 2 entry, considering he was due to go to stud. He is not currently in the Sportsbook betting for the Triumph Hurdle.

At Leopardstown on the 27th, It's For Me has an entry over 2m in the Beginners Chase, which Marine Nationale won last year. He is still available at 20/121.00 for the Arkle and could be a big mover.

Keeping with Leopardstown, Gaelic Warrior will make his seasonal debut in the Grade 1 Rewards Club Chase. He is currently 7/24.50 for the Champion Chase.

No Supreme Novice Hurdle favourite Salvator Mundi in the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice!

At Kempton on the 27th, Ballyburn and Sir Gino have entries in the Wayward Lad Novices Chase Grade 2. The current price for Sir Gino at 5/16.00 is getting tight for an ante-post column, but he is exciting, and the Constitution Hill and Sir Gino double might appeal at 22/123.00. The Willie Mullins runner's speed will be tested at 2m around Kempton! This will be a big week for the Arkle market.

At Leopardstown on the 28th, Chapeau De Soleil could make his chasing debut. Willie Mullins described him as "right toward the top of our novice chasers" and is currently 25/126.00 for the Brown Advisory.

The Grade 1 Savills Hurdle at Leopardstown on the 28th sees Home By The Lee, Bob Olinger, and Hewick offer Stayers Hurdle credentials.

Last but by no means least, the Savills Chase could see Galopin Des Champs take on Fact To File and Gerri Colombe in a contest that will send ripples through the Gold Cup picture.


Back Kopek Des Bordes to win the Supreme Novices Hurdle @ 25/126.00 1pt

It's time to take a bit of a swing in the Novice Hurdle contests, and the horse that stands out and is in the "could be anything category" is Willie Mullins' Kopek Des Bordes, who held two entries over Christmas over 2m and 2m4f. He was touted as a "staying novice hurdler" by Patrick Mullins in his five to follow but described by Willie Mullins as having plenty of speed to go down the 2m route. That leaves us guessing again.

However, considering his declaration on Boxing Day over 2m, I am happy to chance this son of No Risk At All for the Supreme Novice Hurdle. He holds a bit of class, and while we have only seen him on the racecourse once, he was devilishly impressive.

The four-year-old won a 100k Fairyhouse bumper and recorded the highest RPR of the race since 2015 winner Castello Sforza (Willie Mullins). He effortlessly pulled 13 lengths clear of the runner-up Clap Of Thunder (rated 120), having tanked through the race in midfield. It was reported that he didn't have a clear preparation for that contest, so that effort can be marked up. He is an impressive physical specimen and a half-brother to French Grade 1 winning chaser Utopie Des Bordes, who ran fifth in the 2013 Albert Bartlett for Nicky Henderson (weakened at last). The Willie Mullins runner looks a little too classy for an Albert Bartlett, and he should relish a strongly run affair in the Supreme Novice with abundant stamina.

We are yet to see any standout novice hurdlers, and he has the potential to move right to the top of this market with a strong performance, so I am happy to chance at big odds while knowing that he could go blow out or even head to the middle distance Turners race. However, I take solace in the fact that he runs in the same contest Mullins used for Klassical Dream, Bunk Off Early and Alvisio Ville, who are Wille Mullins' three winners of this race in the last ten years, and all went to the Supreme Novice Hurdle.

The fact that he could hold the ability to run in either the Supreme Novice or the Turners and is available at 25/126.00 means he is the correct play before his debut hurdle and no Salvator Mundi in the Grade 1 Future Champions could see him head to the 2m4f Lawlors Of Naas.


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