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Break to work the oracle for Heathen
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Newmarket form puts Charlton runner in with a big chance
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Alan Dudman's Tuesday multiple pays 26/127.00 on the Sportsbook
Southwell stages the most interesting racing on Tuesday and the 19:00 6f 0-88 Handicap draws together a few three-year-olds and some capable of more progression.
Harry Charlton's Completely Random is certainly one, and while prominent in the market at 9/25.50 last night, he hasn't been drawn kindly out in 13. He is not quite locked up in a Faraday Cage but he will have to be street smart with that draw.
However, he's been in three good quality handicaps on the turf at Newmarket this season and finished second to Woodhay Wonder back in May.
That run at HQ is the one to focus on as Woodhay Wonder certainly was in a better position on the pace, where as Completely Random had to come from further back - and if you do that at Newmarket you are on a hiding to nothing.
Completely Random clocked a sub 11-second sectional at 10.91 at furlong five, and he was in front in a duel with Woodhay Wonder which he ultimately lost. The winner was rated 93, the class was stronger than tonight's and the pair were over 4L clear to third. So all in all, that's a fine piece of form.
Trying the Southwell surface on the sire stats encourages me too. Havana Grey is 16% win and 38% placed from his runners at the track. He's also a previous All-Weather winner at Wolverhampton.
Off a break of 143 days, he is a massive player in a good race.
I've got a bit of history with Heathen and the visual impression of him winning by four lengths at Southwell still burns bright in my mind. That's a surprise, as I can barely remember what I had for breakfast yesterday, but Heathen looked a horse of potential for some decent All-Weather races. He travelled so well for that victory.
After that striking Southwell win, he was turned out fairly quickly to finish second in a 0-105 again at Southwell, but the form nose-dived after that.
I don't have to call on my prolixity powers to explain his effort when last seen in March - a stonking defeat when last of 16.
However, I've often thought he needs some time in between in his races. He's got that after a break since the spring and the drop in class down to 0-85 company is so attractive I cannot let him go on Tuesday. His price was fairly warm too on the Sportsbook on Monday evening as he'd been backed into 4/15.00 from 6/17.00.
Heathen has tried 2m on a couple of occasions but has failed to convince he stays. I don't see an issue with 1m6f this evening, for all of his best form has been at 1m4f, and he has winning form around the stiff Newcastle.
He's on a good mark and he'll travel better than 78 if he is on song, but the big angle for me is catching him fresh after his 228-day absence.
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