Horse Racing Tips: Bailey to score with Gwen in Thursday 14/1 double

• Trainer with a good record at Newcastle

• Bailey also 24% at Market Rasen

• Alan Dudman won with Oakley at a BSP 12.65 yesterday

Newcastle - 12:05: Back Blue Baloo

A very early start at Newcastle for today's opening selection with Blue Baloo in the 12:05 2m4f Maiden Hurdle, and she looked a fair price at 11/26.50 judged on her bumper form of last term, but I wasn't the only one who fancied her chances as she had been cut to 4/15.00 on the Sportsbook just before 9am.

In three starts she landed a bumper at Newcastle in soft conditions and showed a good attitude against a Don McCain smooth travelling type and the time was a reasonable one. Handling the soft ground then at a stiff track bodes well.

She also competed in a decent Kelso bumper and was well in contention when going well before being hampered.

Today's trip of 2m4f should suit her, as will the testing going, and her trainer Sandy Thomson holds a decent record at Newcastle in the last five seasons with a strike-rate of a tick over 17% and a profit to level stakes of +16.50.

Saunton Surf heads the market at 15/82.88 for trainer Warren Greatrex judged on her Ludlow second, but I tend to find Greatrex's horses can go off too short, and Blue Baloo has achieved as much as the favourite, if not more.

Market Rasen - 12:30: Back Lady Gwen

Another early race with Lady Gwen participating in the 12:30 at Rasen, and this looks a good piece of placing from her trainer Kim Bailey as she remains unchanged from her mark after winning last time.

She might have found the Taunton 2m quite a sharp test recently under Kai Lenihan, and appeared to be under pressure, or not going as all as some of her rivals in that race. In the process she hit 65.064/1 in-running, but her stamina got her home.

This sort of trip on good to soft ground suits her it seems, as does a sharp-ish track as she also won a race for Bailey at Stratford.

Bailey trained the horse's dam and he has a decent record at Market Rasen with a strike-rate of 26% in the last five seasons.

*Click here for Daryl Carter's Thursday tips