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Two bets for Chelmsford on Tuesday
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Headgear stats are strong for first pick
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11/82.38 favourite worth taking on at 20:20
Chelmsford - 19:50 - Back Wild Hurricane
You know your luck is out when a well backed favourite meets trouble against four rivals. Arkenstaar's horror effort at Beverley yesterday would go down in a Danny Baker "Own Goals And Gaffs" video - and the ride certainly would be a nomination for one of the worst of the season.
On with Tuesday's double.
The first-time headgear angle for trainer Saeed bin Suroor is one that I often like to explore and include in the column due to the SBS's record with a new acoutrement.
At Chelmsford, Wild Hurricane runs in cheekpieces in place of the first-time hood from his latest run, and with the paint-rollers he is 27% and 46%.
Bin Suroor also has an excellent overall record at the Essex track with a 27% win rate and a placed one of 50% which is pretty good going.
In terms of the overall profile of the selection, the 5yo Wild Hurricane has only had four starts and was given too much to do at Kempton last time behind Graignes. The winner had such an easy time of things in front under William Buick who slipped away from the field at the right moment, while Wild Hurricane stayed on while if looking at ill at ease with his wandering around.
I put the waywardness down to inexperience but he should be well treated from a mark of 75.
The negatives are the draw in 13 but this is not a strong race.
Chelmsford - 20:20 - Back Arctic Mountain
If Bin Suroor has a good evening at Chelmsford, I will too as I am going for his newcomer Arctic Mountain in the 20:20 - one of the more interesting races on the card.
Alexandretta for Sir Mark Prescott heads the betting at 11/82.38, but she is only rated 79 after three runs and doesn't set an unattainable standard. She's been beaten twice at short odds although soft ground could well have been the issue last time on her return at Salisbury.
Arctic Mountain is a son of Nathaniel, so the 1m trip tonight will be the bare minimum and he has a fair record with his runners at the track at 14% win over 1m.
Indeed the surface could be key here, as Arctic Mountain's dam is by Street Cry - an excellent All-Weather sire and the dam Lura was trainer by bin Suroor, and all four of her winners have scored.
Motriff is a similar sort of price and for once I am opposing a Sea The Stars there, and it's a case of newcomer versus experience.
You can read Daryl Carter's selections for Tuesday with tips at Wolverhampton and Musselburgh