Kevin Blake's Day One Cheltenham Tips: A Powerful play in the Supreme Novices'

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This is it. After endless build-up, relentless hype and no end of debate about likely targets, the Cheltenham Festival is finally here. The meeting that trumps all else kicks off with the Supreme Novices' Hurdle and that seems the right place to kick off this week's series of Big-Race Verdicts.

Pace mapping for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle isn't the same as pace mapping for normal races. Whatever the pace map reads, the result is so often the same. With excitement levels at fever pitch, horses fired up and the crowd gearing up for the roar, it is a rare Supreme Novices' Hurdle that isn't well run.

Regardless of this, we'll go through the motions so we can get a feel for how it might pan out.

Supreme Novices' Hurdle pace map

Tullyhill has made all to win his last two starts over hurdles, but hasn't looked the world's most natural jumper and might not be asked to be as forward here. Tellherthename has made all when gaining his two wins over hurdles. Mistergif made all to win a maiden hurdle last time and wears a hood for the first time over hurdles since joining Mullins. Firefox made all to win his last start in a bumper and his hurdling debut prior to being ridden a bit more quietly last time. Asian Master has been racing prominently and has an inexperienced rider. Slade Steel has been racing prominently and stays further than this. Jeriko Du Reponet has been racing prominently.

Pressure could expose Tullyhill's jumping

It is the anticipation of a strong pace that tempers my enthusiasm for the Willie Mullins-trained Tullyhill. The six-year-old was a very promising performer in bumpers, but he didn't look at all natural over a hurdle when well beaten on his hurdling debut at Punchestown back in November.

He has jumped better when winning his two starts since over two miles, but he has had a freebie in front on both occasions and was completely unpressured at any stage. There were still hints of untidiness in his jumping last time and the fear is that a much more competitive and well-run race will expose holes in his jumping technique.

Distance against Slade Steel

Slade Steel is another that I'm not too sure about. He looked to find the drop back to two miles to be against him when beaten by Ballyburn at the Dublin Racing Festival last time, but his connections have decided that avoiding that rival was the priority, so they are once again running over the minimum trip in this contest rather than rematching Ballyburn over the mid-range trip of the Gallagher Novices' Hurdle.

It might well work out fine, but I strongly suspect that a longer trip will suit him best and that makes me inclined to look past him.

The one I have come down on after much deliberation is the Willie Mullins-trained Mystical Power.

The five-year-old has been the subject of major attention from the outset of his life being the first foal out of the legendary Annie Power and by Galileo. However, it seems that his homework has never quite matched up to his pedigree, as he began his career in a bumper at Ballinrobe last May and made his hurdling debut when winning at the Galway Festival the following July.

He had to overcome a bit of bother to win at Galway, as he got shuffled back in the middle part of the race and had to bump his way into the clear to launch his challenge, but he ultimately ran out the impressive winner.

Given a break after that, he returned to the track in January for the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle at Punchestown to test his credentials in deeper company. Much like on his hurdling debut, his jumping was fine and no better than that, but again he really came alive when asked for effort and made very strong headway to challenge before the final flight, quickening away from his rivals in taking style to win very well.

It is interesting that a first-time hood is applied for this step up in class and one can see why they are thinking that way as he has initially taken a fair grip in his two races over hurdles. The combination of the hood and the likely much stronger pace in front of him should make him a more efficient conveyance in the early stages. Soft ground isn't an issue for him either.

While Mystical Power might not shine in his homework, he might well be just to graduate with first-class honours on the biggest stage of all.

Apologies!

14:50 - Ultima - Back The Goffer

Away from that contest, there are a couple of others that I am keen on. Those that have read my Five Best Bets of the Cheltenham Festival on this site will know that I am also keen on The Goffer in the Ultima Handicap Chase. He ran really well in a red-hot renewal of this race last year and looks to have been laid out for a repeat bid.

He has had a lovely preparation for this and with a quieter ride likely to be the order of the day, the hope is that he'll appear late on the scene with a very bold bid.

17:30 - National Hunt Chase - back Salvador Ziggy

The other race I have a particular interest in is the concluding Maureen Mullins National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices' Chase.

The market is being dominated by Corbett's Cross and Embassy Gardens, but I very much worry about the jumping of the former and the ability of the latter to settle well enough over this longer trip.

I believe there is an attractive alternative to both of them in the shape of the Gordon Elliott-trained Salvador Ziggy. The eight-year-old finished second in the Pertemps Final over hurdles at this meeting last year and has made up into a high-class novice chaser this season.

His second-place finish in the Kerry National back in September reads well and he is likely to have been primed for this target. He might well outjump and outstay his two main rivals.

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