Cheltenham Tips for Tuesday: Four big-price bets for Tony Calvin on Day 1

• Two bets up to 48.047/1 in the Ultima

• Two big-price recommendations in the Boodles

• Bet safely at the Cheltenham Festival - read more here

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Rachael Blackmore Superboost

Rachael has a good chance on Quilixios in the Arkle Chase at 14:10 today, and if you fancy the horse to run well you can back it at the super-boosted price of 6/42.50 (from 4/61.67) to finish in the top top four.

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13:30 - Supreme Novices' Hurdle: No Bet

I don't pay too much attention to the past or historical trends when it comes to tipping on horse racing - and don't get me started on those who reference the record of favourites in certain races, as if it is of any relevance whatsoever - but someone sparked a mild interest in me when pointing out on social media on Friday that there are no Grade 1 winners in the Supreme at 13:30 after the ante-post favourite Ballyburn came out.

I couldn't be bothered to research when the last time this happened, as it doesn't really add anything to my train of thought, which is that the absence of a top-flight victory among the 12 confirmed (Willie Mullins has six) merely underlines what an open race it is this year.

Oh, I forgot to kick off with my usual ground housekeeping and weather watch.

Hang on, I'll just have to undo a few buttons on my shirt, start doing the nose-to-head hokey-cokey with my glasses and work on my Irish accent...

The going is currently soft for Tuesday after 7mm overnight into Sunday morning (the live gauge on the Turftrax site said only 5.8mm, and that hasn't tallied with course/BHA updates for a while now, so bear that in mind this week), with the forecast of maybe a further 4mm-5mm to come throughout the day. Monday may see another millimetre or two.

Back to the Supreme then.

Regular readers will know that I have largely stayed away from tipping on Cheltenham ante-post, preferring to wait for the day, and hopefully better prices and each way terms - I didn't write a single column on it this season, and advised only two bets on Weighed In's Footsteps To The Festival section - and to that end patience has been rewarded.

The fields for Tuesday held up remarkably well, and the races are deeper and more competitive than expected.

Lately, I have been coming round to Jeriko Du Reponet in the opener.

In a normal year, you'd struggle to give him the time of day at his current odds, as his form (he is rated just 136) is a little way detached from even an average Supreme winner but, as stated above, this isn't a top-flight renewal, going into the race, anyway.

I like the way he is improving race-on-race and he gives the impression he can rise to the occasion as he steps up in class - Timeform actually don't have him with that much to find, as he is only 5lb off their top-rated Slade Steel - with the soft ground probably a bonus for a horse who looks like he will stay a good bit further.

But you have to be worried about the stable form (apparently those very close to the yard, which hasn't had had a runner since March 2nd and whose Crazierthandaisy was withdrawn on vet's advice on Saturday, are very concerned by it) and the more you look at the race, the more I am pulled one way then the other.

If this race wasn't at Cheltenham, then I would have little hesitation in giving it a swerve - it really is ridiculously open, with precious little to go on with certain horses - so that is how I am going to play it.

Or not, as the case may be.

Personally, I may have a small, reduced win-only bet on Jeriko Du Reponet at 7/18.00 with the Sportsbook (actually, he is currently 9.617/2 on the exchange as this goes live, so head there if you fancy him) - he was cut into 7s from 8s early on Sunday - but it isn't a strong enough stance for a tipping recommendation.

By the way, I mentioned the Mullins' sextet, and I will pass on a whisper for his 14/115.00 chance Mistergif. But, as I said above, that one really is a total guess-up after winning just a Limerick maiden hurdle, albeit by a wide margin.

The Sportsbook are paying four places here, by the way.

14:10 - Arkle Chase: No Bet

If the Supreme is a puzzle, then the Arkle at 14:10 isn't that much easier to unlock.

Again, my recent lean has been Hunters Yarn, one of a very strong Mullins trio in this. He blew out when an 11/26.50 chance in the County Hurdle last season, and he certainly has a mistake in him.

However, if - and it's a fair if, admittedly - he puts in a blemish-free round, then he could be the one to beat.

He was set to beat a decent horse in Sa Fureur when coming down at the last at Fairyhouse in December, and he did remarkably well to beat decent handicapper Path D'Oroux at the same track last time considering he attempted to take the second-last home with him.

The problem, as with the Supreme, is that there are simply too many plausible dangers for me to get involved to any meaningful degree at 13/27.50 with the Sportsbook (the traditional 1,2,3 each way terms here) and 7s on the exchange.

I'd be pretty sure Gaelic Warrior is the most talented of the 10 declared, but even his exchange price of around 7/24.50 is no bargain after his eclipse at the DRF and the obvious doubts about him over 2m around here over fences, given he shifts right.

The first-time hood is an unknown, too. Incidentally, you can find the record of all the trainers and their relevant first-time headgear, for Tuesday's racing, records below.

For all the other Irish challengers have to be respected, I think the English trio of JPR One, Master Chewy and Matata have actually been overly-dismissed (if that is the right word) in the market.

If you want an interest, then Master Chewy is the most overpriced at 20/121.00 with the Sportsbook, and a similar win-only price on the exchange. In fact, he is 26.025/1 on the latter as this goes live.

Sure, his Cheltenham form to date wouldn't excite you but you can forgive him his Lingfield run last time as he got wiped out at the first and his earlier second to Elixir Du Nutz and defeat of Nickle Back reads very well, even in this company.

It looks like he is the stable second-string on jockey bookings but that doesn't bother me. Again, I'll probably be throwing a speculative few quid on him, but my tips in the column begin in the Ultima at 14:50.

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14:50 - Ultima Handicap: Back Weveallbeencaught and Eklat De Rire

Surprisingly, this handicap didn't fill - there are 23 runners, one shy of the maximum - but there are still six places on offer with the Sportsbook.

At this stage, their odds-compilers seemingly want to duck all of the market leaders but luckily those in single figures didn't interest me, even at the best industry prices - though you can easily see The Goffer going well again but surely 5s with the Sportsbook is short enough now - and I am going to go with two win-only on the exchange.

They are Weveallbeencaught and Eklat De Rire, currently trading at 16.015/1 and 48.047/1 respectively. If you want to get filled straight away their Sportsbook prices of 14s and 33s are very fair, too, - especially the first-named - and they obviously give you the each-way option if you are so minded.

Now, the massive unit that is Weveallbeencaught (you simply have to reference his size whenever you namecheck the horse, it's the law) hasn't really kicked on as expected over fences and he was underwhelming when last seen here in December.

A first-time tongue-tie hints at an issue, and that is largely why I am going win-only, but I like the idea of him coming here fresh and off a mark of just 134, and he also didn't run badly when seventh in the Albert Bartlett as a 50s poke last year.

A lot of his best form has come off a break, such as his third to Flooring Porter and Broadway Boy here in October - on which he is well handicapped - and I'll take a chance.

I certainly am taking a chance with Grand National entry Eklat De Rire. He must have had no end of problems in his career, as this is just his 12th start as a 10yo.

He blew a golden opportunity when unseating in the Brown Advisory here in 2021, and he has only raced just six times since, but his defeat of Conflated at Wexford (albeit in October 2021) shows he is a well-treated horse off 146 when right (though his Irish mark is 2lb lower) and he was given an easy time of it when a decent second of two finishers in very bad ground at Fairyhouse last month.

Henry De Bromhead doesn't come into the Festival in great nick but he is a man I want to have on my side next week, especially when I am taking a swing at a big price.

15:30 - Champion Hurdle: No Bet

I may come back to the Champion Hurdle on Monday, in an update to column, once we have all the betting without markets available.

At the moment, I'd actually say State Man at 1.42/5 on the exchange is actually about ten ticks too big in the big one at 15:30, as I'd argue he should at least be as short at 3s-on and probably nearer 4s-on.

So I am going to wait on the secondary markets to appear and consolidate.

16:10 - Mares' Hurdle: No Bet

I don't think I am inclined to try to get Lossiemouth beaten in the Mares' Hurdle at 16:10.

Well, not pre-race anyway.

Like many people I imagine (granted, that is a problem in itself), I may look to lay her in-running as she can be a free sort and her stamina is certainly not set in stone - though connections are already talking in 3m terms for her - but I couldn't see a lot of guaranteed pace in here.

Possibly, Love Envoi, Theatre Glory and You Wear It Well could go forward, but you wouldn't necessarily hang your hat on any of them leading.

I suppose you could argue that Lossiemouth actually wants a strong pace but, either way, I couldn't see a betting angle into the race at the moment.

There are three places available for each way punters and plenty of depth beyond the favourite. If you want an each-way interest in the race, then De Bromhead's Telmesomethingirl is probably the small lean at 25s at this stage in the wider marketplace.

She was originally a huge 9/110.00 without Lossiemouth and Ashroe Diamond on the Sportsbook, a price I didn''t expect to last. It didn't, and she is now 9/25.50 there.

16:50 - Boodles Handicap: Back Latin Verse & Les Loyautes

They say the Pertemps is a cheats' charter but The Boodles at 16:50 probably isn't far behind, though I am sure connections of those will simply say they have been merely legally hiding their lights under a bushel (very much a religious term, my google search tells me, but surely these are ungodly campaigns).

Latin Verse hasn't utilised bushels as he won by 19 lengths at Ludlow last time, but at least the handicapper appreciated the honesty and only put him up 10lb.

Given the manner of his success (colleague Dan Barber was on Racing TV duty that day and he was very taken by the manner in which he finished his race off on a day where everything else finished legless on bad ground) and the winning time, the assessor could have been harsher, for sure.

This is a horse who was rated 82 on the Flat at his peak when trained by Ralph Beckett (Timeform had him nearer 90, apparently) so even his revised mark of 120 could be exploitable.

At 33s, six places, each way I was paying to find out.

But the 33s became 20s just before this column appeared. He trades at 36.035/1 on the exchange as this goes live, though, so I have to suggest you go win-only at 25s or bigger there. He is 33s in three places fixed-odds.

Annoying, but such is life.

My other one is a Hail Mary in the shape of Les Loyautes on her debut for The Twister - the religious/blasphemous theme continues - who currently trades at 75.074/1 on the exchange. She was 40s, six places, on the Sportsbook but she was bizarrely cut to 20s there this afternoon, so I am going win-only on the exchange. It's effectively a guess, to be honest.

And not even a particularly educated one as I am told Aintree, and not next week, is the real target for this horse.

However, I am undeterred by such gossip.

Look to back her at 50.049/1 or bigger on the exchange and no lower, so you may have to be patient. She could easily go off at big three figures given her highly-speculative profile; I'll settle at Betfair SP.

Basically, given the nature of this race, never be afraid to get the big punting stick out, particularly when it comes to ex-French horses who started their hurdling careers early, so have plenty of experience.

This filly made her debut in March 2023, and actually has had her last five starts over fences.

The case for her rests solely on one winning performance at Compeigne in April 2023, and if that run is to believed then a mark of 122 gives her a much better chance than her price suggests.

That victory saw her beat a horse who has won three of her five starts since (including in Grade 3 company by 4 lengths), with another subsequent 7-length Grade 3 winner in third.

She has massive blow-out potential, but I'll always take my chances at prices.

17:30 - National Hunt Chase: No Bet

I had two ante-post bets (and tips on Weighed In's Footsteps To The Festival) and one of those was on Salvador Ziggy at 7s each way in the National Hunt Chase at 17:30.

I think his handicap form is just about a match for the top two in the betting - indeed, he is officially rated 4lb higher - and it sounds like Gordon Elliott has deliberately kept him fresh for this, and hopefully a Grand National run thereafter.

He isn't a bad price at all at 9/25.50 - he was second in the Pertemps here last season - but of course we don't have the each-way angle any more with just the seven runners and I only found out last week he bled when disappointing in America on his last start in October.

I am hopeful rather than confident, as a result, but at least Corbetts Cross and Embassy Gardens run in first-time hoods and it remains to be seen how they take to that headgear.

I will have busier betting and tipping days at Cheltenham, trust me.

Hopefully, anyway.

Good luck. I may be back tomorrow with that update.

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FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS FOR TUESDAY:

Willie Mullins - hood (26 from 152 since 2013)

O'Neill - cheekpieces (14 from 92 since 2016)

Fowler - blinkers (0 from 3)

Fry - cheekpieces (5 from 25 since 2016)

Henderson - cheekpieces (17 from 97 since 2016)

Emmet Mullins - hood (5 from 21 since 2017)

Bradstock - cheekpieces (1 from 6 since 2017)

NOTE: Cromwell's My Mate Mozzie runs in a combination of pieces and tongue-tie for first time, having raced in both separately before)

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PACE MAPS - probable/possible forward-goers (manually done, not autogenerated):

SUPREME: Firefox, Mistergif, Tellherthename, Tullyhill

ARKLE: Found A Fifty, Gaelic Warrior, Matata

ULTIMA: Eldorado Allen, Run Wild Fred, Highland Hunter, Chambard, Minella Crooner, Trelawne, Found On

CHAMPION HURDLE: Not So Sleepy, Luccia

MARES' HURDLE: Love Envoi? Theatre Glory?, You Wear It Well?

BOODLES: Miss Manzor, Milan Tino?, Pigeon House, Eagles Reign, Balbao, Bright Legend?

NH CHASE: Mr Vango, Apple Away

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