Cheltenham Festival Tips: Kevin Blake's three handicappers to note from 13/2 to 16/1

• Kevin Blake has three tips for the Cheltenham handicaps

• 13/27.50 and 7/18.00 Irish-trained raider fancied

• 16/117.00 Harper's Brook makes plent of appeal

• We're now NRMB on all 28 Cheltenham Festival races

• Will Constitution Hill run at the 2024 Cheltenham Festival?

There are less than two weeks to go until the Cheltenham Festival kicks off. One of the last pieces of the puzzle was revealed on Tuesday afternoon as the always anticipated weights for the handicaps at the meeting were revealed.

In years gone by, this event produced some spectacular outbursts and cries of injustice from the green side of the Irish Sea, but this year's weights were greeted with a mostly serene air of calm.

One of the reasons why this isn't as contentious an event as it once was is that the BHA handicappers have been acting on a key recommendation form the Quality Jumps Review of September 2021.

That review finally acknowledged what had been a long-standing view that the levels of official rating in British National Hunt racing had been allowed to inflate over the previous 15 years. Amongst other things, this was a big contributor in British horses not being as competitive as they might be against Irish-trained raiders in Britain.

So, with the issue acknowledged, the BHA have spent the following two years attempting to re-jig the rating levels in British National Hunt racing by dropping underperforming horses more quickly in the ratings and lowering their initial assessments of young horses.

Up until now, their treatment of Irish-trained runners in Britain had stayed much the same despite their lowering of the British-trained horses, which resulted in a reduction in the win-rate of Irish-trained horses in recent seasons.

Those of us rating nerds that pay attention to such things have been waiting and watching to see if the British handicappers would finally start to ease off the Irish-trained runners now that the levels of British-trained horses had been adjusted and this year it finally seems to have started to happen.

One way to measure the treatment of Irish-trained horses in Britain is via the differential between the rating they hold in Ireland and that they are given in Britain.

Here is how the various divisions have stacked up at the Cheltenham Festival in recent years as well as the totals from yesterday's weights.

Juvenile Hurdlers:

2018 - 4lb
2019 - 5.2lb
2020 - 4.6lb
2021 - 2.9lb
2022 - 3.3lb
2923 - 5.4lb
2024 - 2.9lb

Non-Juvenile Hurdlers:

2018 - 2.8lb
2019 - 3.8lb
2020 - 4.4lb
2021 - 3.9lb
2022 - 4.9lb
2023 - 4.1lb
2024 - 2.9lb

Chasers:

2018 - 1.3lb
2019 - 2.4lb
2020 - 2.1lb
2021 - 2.3lb
2022 - 4lb
2023 - 2.9lb
2024 - 2.3lb

At a glance, one could only read the above with a positive eye from an Irish perspective. However, I would highlight that one has to consider the significant lowering of the overall levels in the British-trained ranks in the last two years, so the lower differentials should not be interpreted as literally as they appear above.

That said, with there being a relative consistency to the treatment applied to the Irish-trained runners, there hasn't been too many complaints from the Irish ranks.

The last two years have seen the handicap races split up as evenly as they have been for quite a few years and based on the evidence of the above, I would anticipate similar again, for all that a sample of nine races is more than small enough to be vulnerable to short-term volatility.

Ultima Handicap - The Goffer @ 13/27.50 NRMB

In terms of individuals of note, the first handicap of the meeting is the Ultima Handicap Chase and it has tended to be a benefit for the British in recent decades. Even Fastorslow couldn't quite win it off a mark of 150 last year!

Mind, when one looks at the market for this year's renewal, the British-trained runners might well struggle to hold the line. The Irish trainers look set to hold a very strong hand and the one that makes the most appeal to me at this stage is the Gordon Elliott-trained The Goffer.

The seven-year-old ran very well indeed in what was a red-hot renewal of the race last year, finishing fourth to Corach Rambler, Fastorslow and Monbeg Genius.

There is a valid train of thought that he hit the front too soon after making a big move between the fourth-last and third-last fences and he is almost certainly better than he was able to show that day.

He looks to have been trained for the race this season and warmed up with an impressive win in a charity race at Punchestown earlier this month. More patient tactics are likely to be employed and he could well do damage off a 2lb lower mark than he ran off last year.

Grand Annual - Harper's Brook @ 16/117.00 NRMB

The Grand Annual Handicap Chase takes place on Wednesday and it is a British-trained contender that takes my eye in the shape of the Ben Pauling-trained Harper's Brook.

The eight-year-old has acquired a degree of notoriety thanks to his pronounced tendency to pull himself up when in front on the run-in in his races which has cost him victory on two notable occasions in the last year.

However, that tendency has served to hide the full extent of his ability and his connections might well have found the key to him by dropping him back to the minimum trip.

He seemed well suited to it when winning his latest start at Sandown and this contest with an much bigger field should suit him even better. He is a very big price and makes plenty of appeal.

Pertemps Final - Gaoth Chuil @ 7/18.00 NRMB

Finally, the Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle on Thursday is always a really interesting contest and the Ted Walsh-trained Gaoth Chuil is the one I like.

The six-year-old is very much bred to stay on both sides of her pedigree and she lifted her form up to another level when stepped up to three miles in her last two starts.

She was arguably a bit unfortunate not to win her latest outing in a valuable handicap hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival as she charted a very wide passage and her rider may have slightly overdone the waiting tactics. This contest should suit her really well and she looks to have a big chance.

Now read Champion Hurdle Latest Betting: Will Constitution Hill run at the 2024 Cheltenham Festival?