Cheltenham Festival Focus: Pocket 14/1 Arkle chance and expect the unexpected with Ballyburn

• 2024 Cheltenham Festival analysed

• 14/115.00 is a great price for Arkle hope

• Ballyburn Arkle or Brown Advisory?

Welcome back to another series of Cheltenham Festival Focus. Daryl Carter had plenty of near misses last season, including Sir Gino, who was advised at a huge 16/117.00 for the Triumph Hurdle. However, Daryl made followers a healthy 11pts profit with Corbetts Cross at 20/121.00 for the National Hunt Chase and Protektorat at 14/115.00 for the Ryanair. Also, we can't start this column without a mention for his 2023 Stayers Hurdle winner, Sire Du Berlais at 100/1101.00.

In week one, Daryl sets the scene for the season by analysing last year's divisions and offers his first two ante-post selections.

Each week, Daryl rounds up the action, offering readers insight with in-depth form analysis, speed figures, and his ratings. From week two, he dives deeply into one performance, giving followers an edge on the ante-post markets.

2024 Cheltenham Festival review

The Irish have won 22 out of the last 30 novice Grade 1 hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival, and I recently wrote a piece on the Betfair website looking into the older Graded chasers, which is a must-read before the season starts.

Bumper Division

The Champion Bumper winner, Jasmin De Vaux, recorded a winning RPR 137, which is joint with the previous year's winner, A Dream To Share. It is one pound above Sir Gerhard's 2021 victory and about average considering the last ten winners.

The SP price of the favourite, Jalon D'oudairies 3/14.00, suggested there was no standout candidate following the absence of the injured Dublin Racing Festival winner Jeroboam Machin (RPR 134). The first, second, third and fourth had come into the Cheltenham race on the back of victories, leaving the Dublin Racing Festival form uncomparable to the Champion Bumper.

Champion Bumper runner-up Jalon D'oudairies is interesting for middle-distance races, and this column's bumper tip at 66/167.00, Sounds Victorious, looks destined for the Albert Bartlett.

The Yellow Clay (6th in the Bumper) will undoubtedly be a horse to keep on the correct of side this season, and one suspects he could follow the footsteps of Better Days Ahead and end up in something like the Martin Pipe.

Following the Champion Bumper, Jasmin De Vaux was described as "rather small and narrow," so the scope for improvement may not be there, and he is one to tread carefully with.

End-of-season Punchestown winner Redemption Day should not be considered as the standard bearer.

Redemption Day had been in bumpers for the best part of three years, and he wasn't the standout horse in his first year. However, like many previous seasons, the Punchestown Bumper form is worth taking with a pinch of salt.

Redemption Day remarkably heads the Supreme Novice Hurdle market 8/19.00, and it would be highly disappointing if he were good enough to win the Festival curtain raiser. Redemption Day will be eight at the turn of the year, and younger horses will undoubtedly improve past him. He is not the easiest to keep sound, and it can't have been the plan to stay in bumpers for this long.

The two most interesting horses outside the Champion bumper are Willie Mullins' easy Fairyhouse winner Kopek Des Bordes, who should rank high on any shortlist for the Novice Hurdle season ahead, and Jeroboam Machin, who is yet to return to training following his injury after his Dublin Racing Festival success.

In the last ten years, only Appreciate It came from the Cheltenham Bumper and won the following year's Supreme, and only Envoi Allen and Sir Gerhard won Gallaghers over the same period.

Keep an open mind.

Juvenile Division

The absence of the 8/111.73 Triumph Hurdle favourite Sir Gino at the Cheltenham Festival was devastating for readers. Still, he showed what he could do when returning to the track at Aintree to push aside the Triumph Hurdle runner-up and subsequent Punchestown Grade 1 winner, Kargese. I doubt it was the best version of Sir Gino at Aintree, but I am confident he was the best Juvenile of the season, and recent moves in the Arkle market 14/115.00 into 8/19.00 suggest he may head over fences. However, according to Nicky Henderson's last correspondence, he is set to stay over hurdles and is 12/113.00 for the Champion Hurdle.

Majborough (fences) will be popular this season. Being a sizeable four-year-old is not always positive, and he was likely physically ahead of the other Juveniles last season. He looks like a stayer to me, and with a season ahead over fences likely, it would be surprising if he had the speed for an Arkle 10/111.00.

Kargese, Bottler'secret and Storm Heart are others to be optimistic about.

The Novice Hurdle division

The 2m Novice Hurdlers from 2024 were only an average bunch. The Supreme Novice Hurdle winning RPR of 149 was the lowest in ten years and 12 pounds below the average.

Supreme Novice winner Slade Steel is a promising prospect for fences and was comfortably on top at the finish over Mystical Power. Still, the runner-up improved with each outing and won at Aintree and Punchestown. Slade Steel was perhaps over the top at Punchestown, so it's worth being forgiving of that effort. With the Turners Novices Chase now scrapped, his connections must choose whether to go over three miles or stay at two in his novice chase campaign. I suspect he will want a middle trip.

It is difficult to be optimistic about many of the other 2m hurdlers. Switching to the larger obstacles will require significant improvement to be competitive at the Cheltenham Festival in the Arkle or the Brown Advisory.

I expect horses like Asian Master to venture out in distance over fences, Mistergif possibly one for the middle-distance handicap chase.

Tellherthename and Firefox will pick up races, but the most interesting of those down the field may be Nicky Henderson's Jeriko Du Reponet once he goes up in distance. He could have a big handicap in him this season, and I already have the Henderson horse in mind for the new Novice Handicap chase with his current mark of 135.

Willie Mullins' It's For Me should be remembered. He offered lots of promise and would have been one I favoured for the Supreme had he lined up. He will go over fences.

The 2m5f division was dominated by Ballyburn, who was sensational in winning the Gallaghers Novice Hurdle. He should win wherever he goes. As for those behind Ballyburn, Predators Gold and Ile Atlantique will need to step up on all known form to be graded winners at the festival.

The 3m Novice Hurdle division for the second year running is well below par on official figures. However, this division typically provides plenty of potential improvers for fences over staying distance.

However, the National Hunt Chase has been altered to a 0-145 handicap, so don't mistake backing something already rated too high on their hurdle form--the top three from the Albert Bartlett, and Reading Tommy Wrong, and High-Class Hero.

Dancing City, Gidleigh Park, Johnnywho, and Captain Teague are all expected to take well to fences. However, if you can't envisage them winning a Gold Cup the following year, don't back them for the Brown Advisory.

Novice Chase division

Gaelic Warrior (Arkle winner), Corbetts Cross (National Hunt Chase winner), Fact To File (Brown Advisory winner), Grey Dawning (Turners winner), Ginnys Destiny (Turners runner-up) and Inothewayurthinking (Kim Muir winner) all were stand out performers in the Novice Chase department. They all have something to recommend them throughout the season.

Most of these will likely clash, so the pecking order will sort itself by Christmas.

Corbetts Cross will pick up some races along with Ginny's Destiny, and Grey Dawning will do well domestically (advised for the Betfair Chase in March).

However, the Aintree Festival may hold the key to this division, and I like Inothewayurthinking for the Gold Cup at 10/111.00. I have a strong case built and written up for him, but I am slightly concerned that connections may eye up an Irish National with his mark of 157. He is almost certainly a 165-plus Grade 1 horse in my book. He will be the best option JP McManus has for winning the Gold Cup, even including Fact To File, but wanting to start in the Drinmore (still a Novice until then) says to me they may be looking to mind his mark. Only time will tell.

In the 2m division, Gaelic Warrior could head to the King George at Christmas and win or lose. He will have options down in trip, whether the Champion Chase 7/24.50 or the more likely Ryanair 6/17.00. This is arguably the most exciting crop of chasers for years.

Brilliant 5/16.00 Ballyburn expected to run in the Browns

Many have been discussing Ballyburn following the removal of the middle-distance Turners Novices Chase, and the consensus is that he will head down the Arkle route 5/23.50.

Ballyburn is not a horse to pigeonhole. He was such a standout Novice last year that he could win either the Arkle or the Brown Advisory. Real top-class horses can win at various distances, and this is not a horse that I'd want to be against in any race.

He is an outstanding prospect for the year ahead, but fences and hurdles are a different game. While his ability is unquestionable, a mistake in a fast-run two-mile race might expose him as the stayer he is.

He has a low-head carriage and a very high cruising speed, and he would be tough to beat should he jump foot perfectly from the front in an Arkle. There's no arguing about that.

However, as they did over hurdles, connections will try and settle him down - they even swerved the Champion Bumper to give him time to learn to race. That means taking a lead, and for a novice, fences can come at you thick and fast, and one mistake in a helter-skelter two-mile race could cause him all sorts of issues.

The son of Flemensfirth - a superb producer of staying chasers - Ballyburn is a half-brother to a Paddy Power Chase winner, Noble Endeavor and 3m4f winner, Minella Daddy. He is out of an Old Vic mare, and Old Vic can lay claim to the Arkle runner-up and then 2005 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Kicking King.

Willie Mullins is a sensational trainer, but even for him, it will be strenuous for a free-going sort like Ballyburn to be trained for a flat two-mile race and then, 12 months later, taught to settle for 3m2f Gold Cup. It's not impossible, but it seems illogical.

Willie Mullins was quoted following Gallagher's victory saying, "I don't know, we might just get on chasing and try to make a Gold Cup horse out of him." The word "try" is the interesting one here.

Ballyburn has it all. Even now, he is a leading candidate for the 2026 Gold Cup. Willie Mullins has many horses that could step into an Arkle, and he hasn't always run his best in that race, El Fabiolo apart.

Ballyburn, though, is not an out-and-out two-miler. Last year, Gaelic Warrior was a final-hour entrant following poor preparation, and it was an excellent placement by Willie Mullins, the ultimate opportunist. I can't imagine the Arkle will be plan A for Ballyburn.

Ballyburn Arkle or Browns?pic.twitter.com/fnP55sNeHO

-- Daryl Carter (@DarylCarter7) October 24, 2024

At Punchestown, over 2m4f at the end of the season, Ballyburn was off the bridle at the turn into the home straight and produced his best work to power away at the finish. He has been most impressive in his finishing efforts, even over 2m5f in the Gallagher's Novice Hurdle. You'll remember he was outpaced on his seasonal return at Fairyhouse behind Firefox last December. The speed figures in this column showed he lacked the gears of Firefox in a slowly run affair.

It's also worth looking back at his Punchestown bumper rules debut win over Quantum Storm to see that this horse is all about stamina. Does he have the speed to go with it? Sure, he does; it's what makes him a particular horse. However, this is a future Gold Cup winner, and he will unequivocally, in my mind, head down the Brown Advisory route.

Ballyburn was the standout Novice last year, and he should be as short as any horse for any race at next year's Cheltenham Festival.

Even if he looks like going down the Arkle route, he will not be 5/16.00 for the only other alternative race when Willie Mullins bingo kicks off, having likely followed Fact To File by running at 2m5f at the Dublin Racing Festival.

I've backed him myself for the Brown Advisory. While a 5/16.00 ante-post winner will not make or break the season, and he is the first horse in this column in two years to be offered below double figure odds, he does represent good value if I am correct, as he will be heavy odds on if all goes to plan.

Back Inthepocket to win the Arkle @ 14/115.00 1pt

Continuing from the fact that I feel Ballyburn is a Brown Advisory horse, I think it leaves the Arkle wide open. I've already touched on the lack of depth to last year's novice hurdlers, and the horse that falls into the "could be anything" category is Henry De Bromhead's Inthepocket - 14/115.00 for the Arkle.

pic.twitter.com/M8gXRqh9RV

-- Daryl Carter (@DarylCarter7) October 24, 2024

Last year, JP McManus split his horses up. In this division, he looks to have the option of Majborough (five-year-olds don't win the Arkle), Mystical Power (if he goes chasing), Inthepocket, Jeriko Du Reponet (could be minded for a handicap) and Mirazur West. The latter is better on a right-handed track, and Jeriko Du Reponet has 25lb of improvement to find on his official rating of 135 to make into an Arkle horse and will likely need further than 2m over fences.

Mystical Power could easily stay hurdling mixed with a flat campaign.

Inthepocket, a Grade 1 winning Novice Hurdler at Aintree, has seen his form work out well. The runner-up is a Grade 1 winner, and the third filled the same spot in the 2024 Champion Hurdle.

He was impressive on his only start last season at Navan when tenderly handled behind Facile Vega on his chasing debut. He showed plenty of speed between fences, and I loved how swiftly he got away from the landed side of an obstacle. He finished ahead of the likes of Spillane's Tower (155) and Saint Felicien (147), and on that sole run, he would only have about 8-10 lb of improvement to find to reach the rating of a typical Arkle winner (158).

I'd have little doubt that this will be his target, with connections likely to take advantage of his Novice status. With another year of schooling under his belt, I'd expect him to be much further forward than most of these in this division.

Until I know where my beloved Sir Gino goes, Inthepocket stands out in the Arkle market.

He is entered to run at Wexford on Monday in a 2m Beginners Chase.

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