Cheltenham Festival Focus: A stark warning to punters hoping for British chase success

• Britain looks doomed in the big three chases at Cheltenham

• Willie Mullins will win another British trainer title

• Ireland has nearly triple the amount of 150-plus rated horses

My regular Cheltenham Festival Focus column will return on Sunday, November 10, for the 2024/25 season.

However, on the eve on the start of the 2024/25 National Hunt season and before that first column lands, I wanted to highlight the ever-growing gap in quality between British and Irish open-graded chasers.

This column compares established chasers' official ratings and ages in Britain and Ireland, tells you why Willie Mullins will strike again in the trainer title, and offers a warning to those punters looking to side with Britain in March.

Where are all the Grade 1 British chasers?

Irish dominance at the Cheltenham Festival has become ever more apparent. While British trainers hope to be competitive in the novice and handicap races at the Cheltenham Festival, the open-graded chase races already look beyond reach based on the average age and official ratings from data compiled since 2000.

The evidence below shows the decline in the number of high-class British chasers and highlights the future impending dominance of the Irish-trained horses.

The average age of a winner at the Cheltenham Festival since 2000 in the three focus open-graded races, the Queen Mother Champion Chase, Ryanair Chase and Gold Cup, is 8.06.

The average rating of the winner of those races in the last ten years is 167.8, 167.7 and 170.1.

British Chasers

According to the BHA official ratings database, here is a list of the top-rated British chasers (160 plus) under ten years old.

Those highlighted in bold are horses that will still be under that age bracket at the turn of the year for the next Cheltenham Festival.

Jonbon 170 (2m- 2.5m)
Ahoy Senor 169 (3m)
Protektorat 167 (2.5m-3m)
Bravemansgame 166 (3m)
Stage Star 163 (2.5m)
Pic D'Orhy 161 (2.5m-3m)

Many novices are unlikely to have reached the 160 rating (they should have done) bracket and hold the potential for improvement. Therefore, it's worth looking at horses rated 150 plus for emerging talent.

Those highlighted in bold are horses that will still be under ten by the next Cheltenham Festival.

Boothill 158 (2m)
Editeur Du Gite 158 (2m)
Nassalam 158 (3m)
Hitman 157 (2.5m - 3m)
The Real Whacker 157 (3m)
Grey Dawning 157 (3m)
Thunder Rock 156 (3m)
Ginny's Destiny 155 (2.5-3m)
Master Chewy 154 (2m-2.5m)
Ga Law 154 (3m)
Stay Away Fay 153 (3m)
Chianti Classico 152 (3m)
Iroko 152 (2.5-3m)
Fugitif 152 (2.5m)

It's worrying. Britain has no horses rated above 160 that run three miles and will be younger than ten for the 2025 Cheltenham Festival.

Jonbon will lead the British line as the strongest chance in the two-mile division. However, Master Chewy was the only British novice chasing home the Irish dominance last season, so there looks to be a lack of future promise in that sphere.

That should mean a productive season for Jonbon and Nicky Henderson, providing the Irish steer clear. However, be warned, the Irish will be coming. Jonbon may look to have improved come March with a predicted unbeaten record, but what would he have achieved other than race titles alone, given Britain couldn't fill a 2m Grade 1 chase with anything rated above 160? He is currently 3/14.00 for the Champion Chase.

Jonbon To Go Unbeaten In The 2024/25 National Hunt Season (must Run At Least 3 Times) 7/18.00

The three-mile division will rely on Grey Dawning - the only British horse shorter than 40/141.00 for the Gold Cup at 12/113.00, Thunder Rock, Ginny's Destiny, Stay Away Fay, Chianti Classico (Grand National target) and Iroko to head the British challenge at the Cheltenham Festival unless something improves upwards of 15 pounds from handicaps or further afield.

That gives us an idea of how thin the British challenge will be in March in the big three - Queen Mother Champion Chase, Ryanair Chase and Gold Cup - so be warned.

Irish Chasers

Here is a list of the top-rated Irish Chasers (160 plus) under ten years old. Those in bold will be under ten at the 2025 Cheltenham Festival.

Galopin Des Champs 179 (3m)
El Fabiolo 175 (2m)
Fastorslow 171 (2.5-3m)
Gerri Colombe 170 (3m)
I Am Maximus 169 (3m)
Hewick 167 (3m)
Corbetts Cross 166 (3m)
Gaelic Warrior 166 (2m-3m)
Banbridge 165 (2.5m)
Captain Guinness 164 (2m)
Flooring Porter 163 (3m)
Noble Yeats 163 (3m)
Fact To File (162 (3m)
Journey With Me 162 (3m)
Gentleman De Mee 161 (3m)
Gentlemansgame 160 (3m)
Il Etait Temps 160 (2m-2.5m)

There are 13 Irish horses rated above 160 and younger than ten years old that will be competing at the 2025 Cheltenham Festival. Britain has two.

Now, we look at those rated 150 plus.

Those highlighted in bold are horses that will still be under ten by the next Cheltenham Festival.

Capodanno 159 (3m)
Grangeclare West 159 (2.5-3m)
Ash Tree Meadow 158 (2.5-3m)
Minella Cocooner 158 (3m)
Coko Beach 157 (3m)
Dinoblue 157 (2m-2.5m)
Inothewayurthinkin 157 (3m)
Saint Sam 157 (2m-2.5m)
Fakir Doudairies 156 (2.5-3m)
Found A Fifty 155 (2m-2.5m)
Mahler Mission 155 (3m)
Spillane's Tower 155 (3m)
Brides Hill 153 (2m-2.5m)
Limerick Lace 153 (2m-3m)
Salvator Ziggy 153 (2.5m-3m)
Solness 153 (2m-2.5m)
Stattler 153 (3m)
Authorized Art 152 (2.5-3m)
Classic Getaway 152 (3m)
Dysart Dynamo 152 (2m)
Hunters Yarn 152 (2m-2.5m)
James Du Berlais 152 (2m-3m)
Monty's Star 152 (3m)
Allegorie De Vassy 151 (2m-3m)
Heart Wood 151 (2m-3m)
Intense Raffles 151 (3m)
Blood Destiny 150 (2m-3m)
Bronn 150 (3m)
Embassy Gardens 150 (3m)
Farouk D'alene 150 (3m)
Ferny Hollow 150 (2m)
Hercule Du Seuil 150 (2.5m)
Letsbeclearaboutit 150 (2.5m)
Nick Rockett 150 (3m)
Visionarian 150 (2.5m)

The official ratings show an astonishing gap between the quantity and quality of British and Irish horses on official figures.

Counting those horses under ten at the next Cheltenham Festival, rated 150 plus, the scores are Ireland 40 and Britain 14.

Counting those horses under ten at the next Cheltenham Festival, rated 160 plus, the scores are Ireland 13 and Britain 2

Counting those horses under ten at the next Cheltenham Festival, rated 160 plus, running over three miles, the scores are Ireland 10 and Britain 0

Counting those horses under ten at the next Cheltenham Festival, rated 150 plus, running over three miles, the scores are Ireland 25 and Britain 9

"It's not all about Cheltenham"

It's certainly not all about Cheltenham. However, the lack of quality in Britain will always have a knock-on effect unless race titles are downgraded to keep in line with the current crop of horses running in them. Either that or the British handicapper must not continue to overrate the British horses and discard race titles when rating a horse's performance.

This is a good example. Master Chewy is currently rated 154, but if Jonbon and the Irish are a no-show in a Grade 1 contest, does that mean a win would see the handicapper rate him in the 160s? I sure hope not!

The lack of depth in British racing should not force horses to be rated higher than they should be.

Another fascinating example is The Real Whacker's Brown Advisory victory in 2023 and the comparison to the 2016 winner, Black Lion. The Real Whacker gained a Brown Advisory winning RPR rating of 163 and Black Lion 162. The Real Whacker was rated 139 on his penultimate outing and won a small field event in the Grade 2 Dipper Chase over Monmiral (current chase rating 138). It was a Grade 2 in name only, but he was given a 15lb rise in the ratings to 153 for that win. He then won the Brown Advisory and was put up to 162. In two races, The Real Whacker went up 23 lb.

The Real Whacker clung to victory from a poorly placed Gerri Colombe in the Brown Advisory, and I can't remember one person thinking he would uphold the form if they met again.

But the handicapper must have after he rated The Real Whacker 4lbs better on the day. Why did the handicapper not rate the performance around the four-length third Bronn, rated 150? Instead, he rated The Real Whacker 3lbs superior to Gerri Colombe, even though the runner-up came into the race rated 1lb higher and was an unfortunate loser.

In 2016, Black Lion had form figures of 121 before his RSA victory, including a last-time-out Grade 2 win of eight lengths. He started his chase campaign, rated 144, lined up in the RSA Chase rated 150, and was given a 4lb rise to 154 for his festival win. A very conservative yet correct way to rate a race.

According to the official figures, Britain will have one Grade 1 horse under ten in January. However, if the handicapper continues to over-inflate their ratings, then we are in danger of having genuine mid-140 horses rated in the high 150, and the entire system will take decades to recover.

Willie the wolf to pounce again in the trainer title battle

It may be that the British trainer title is an itch that has been scratched for Willie Mullins, but the winning and losing is all in the prize money, and the most significant rewards are earned in the Grade 1, 2 and 3 contests. Any logical person looking at the above data can conclude and predict that the Grade 1 and 2 chase races in Britain, based on current official ratings, will be weak and an ideal opportunity for the Irish to raid.

British racing is in a transition period, and it's no coincidence that Willie Mullins chose to strike last year. Mullins is a fine opportunist, and with Britain crying like a wounded lamb, I expect the wolf to pounce again in 2024/25 and finish its meal.

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