"Given that I have some concerns about the ability of his main market rival Stattler to settle and jump efficiently over this longer trip, Run Wild Fred looks to hold all the aces to my eye."
The Cheltenham Festival has arrived, and Kevin Blake is hoping to bookend his day with winning tips in the first and last races on Tuesday...
It's here. After months and months of endless build up, analysis and anticipation, the Cheltenham Festival is finally here.
The time for talking is over and now we have to try and make all the focus count in the shape of winners. Best of luck to you all, especially those of you that follow this column!
Potter fancied to get us off to a Mighty start
The Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle (13:30) will open the meeting and one that I've been keen on for it for many months is the Gordon Elliott-trained Mighty Potter.
The five-year-old made the perfect start to his hurdling career when winning a maiden hurdle at Down Royal by a long way in October and was stepped straight up into Grade 1 company for the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse after that.
However, in what proved to be a messy race in pace terms, Mighty Potter was outpaced before the second-last flight before powering home in amongst horses to grab third beaten just 1¼ lengths.
It was a run full of promise that he seemed sure to improve from.
Mighty Potter's next outing came in the Future Champions Novice Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival and while he got the job done, he had his share of adversity to overcome. A bad stumble after the first flight was far from ideal and he found himself pocketed at the second-last flight, but he found open air and picked up well to get on top close home.
It wasn't a performance that would have blown anyone away in style terms, but it again offered the promise of better to come.
The likelihood of a stronger pace and deeper test of stamina will both very much be in Mighty Potter's favour. As well as that, Gordon Elliott has never wavered in his view that the Supreme Novices' Hurdle was the right race for him, even though the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle looked a more winnable option.
His price has held up quite well and he remains an appealing proposition to get the meeting off to a flyer.
Fred can run them wild in finale
The other selection on day one comes in the concluding Ukraine Appeal National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys' Novice Chase (17:30). It has only attracted seven runners, but all the big guns will line up and the one I've liked for the race for quite some time is the Gordon Elliott-trained Run Wild Fred.
The eight-year-old has exactly the profile I look for in this race. He has an abundance of experience over fences being a second-season chaser, his stamina is in no doubt given he was a little bit unlucky not to win the Irish Grand National last season and he is the class horse in the race.
His official rating of 158 would put him right in the mix for the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase and puts him a notch above his opposition in this contest.
Elliott has been very keen to run him in this race all season and has trained him for it. He is a straightforward ride that will take up a prominent position and now it has been confirmed that leading amateur rider Jamie Codd will be in the saddle.
Given that I have some concerns about the ability of his main market rival Stattler to settle and jump efficiently over this longer trip, Run Wild Fred looks to hold all the aces to my eye.