Breeders' Cup Friday: Jamie Lynch's Preview

Soon after Aidan O'Brien's squad had exercised on the track on Thursday morning, a flock of geese made their loud way over the track. We can only hope there wasn't a Full Metal Jacket flashback moment for Magician, who was terrorised by a swallow while in the Ballydoyle spa, so the story goes, prior to underperforming when last seen at Royal Ascot.
 
The athletic Giovanni Boldini had a good stretch, too, and he certainly ought to be favourite for the Juvenile Turf, a race O'Brien has won the last two years with horses who hadn't G-Bol's rating coming here. The American take on him is that he must be a phenomenal-looker to have cost £675,000 as a yearling as, though by War Front, there's little or nothing positive on his dam's side. But family fortunes is a game he's winning, scoring impressively either side of finishing third to Toormore (who'd be near even-money were he running) in a Group 1 only seven days on from his debut. 

For Wrote and George Vancouver, the Breeders' Cup had a gentle whiff of the Plan B about it having both contested a major European event in the autumn, whereas the impression is that this has been the target all along for Giovanni. 

The danger comes not from his fellow Europeans but from Bobby's Kitten, who's by far the best US turf juvenile around, but home advantage is secondary to talent and, granted luck from stall 2, Giovanni Boldini can make it three in a row for O'Brien and four out of four for GB & Ireland when the Juvenile Turf has been run at Santa Anita. 

The first Breeders' Cup race, run 40 minutes earlier, is the Marathon, which might be in danger of going the same way as the now-defunct Juvenile Sprint, diluting as it does the Breeders' Cup brand. Only 10 runners, but it's going to be Grand National betting: 5/1 the field of second-raters with a guessing game as to who'll stay. Pass.

To explain the Timeform squiggle out here all you need is one word: Verrazano. When he was good he was very, very good, but when he was bad he was horrid, and he's at the centre of the Dirt Mile. He's an all-or-nothing horse, and the majority view in the US is that nothing is more likely than all on Friday. The whisper horse is Brujo de Olleros, who ran well and shaped better still against Graydar in the Kelso at Belmont last time. He emerged in little old Uruguay, but so too did Invasor.  

The meeting of minds that was the New York Summit was particularly revealing regards the Juvenile Fillies Turf, because Timeform UK was banking on Timeform US fancying My Conquestadory and Timeform US was banking on Timeform UK being right behind one of the Euro three. Neither happened, and that in itself is telling that the race could be ripe for an upset. If that's the case, then the busy Testa Rossi is as likely as any. 

In a way she represents both Europe and the US, trained in France until joining Chad Brown ahead of winning a Grade 3 at Belmont in a faster time than Bobby's Kitten clocked over the same course and distance earlier on the card. She'll be coming fast and late, hopefully fast enough and not too late. 

Timeform is the sum of the individual parts, more parts than ever with the US expansion, but, naturally, sometimes those parts aren't in agreement, even when the permutations are small, as is the case in the Distaff.

'Royal Delta will win.' 'Royal Delta can't win with Beholder in the field.' 'Beholder won't be caught.' 'Princess of Sylmar will beat them both like she's done before.' I've heard each one voiced, all by experts. It's just one of those races that prompts strong opinion despite the tactical unknowns, and the result will be determined as much by the riders as the horses, but Royal Delta is the one who's been there, done that and got two t-shirts, now going for the 'threepeat', yet another turn of phrase we need to borrow from America.     

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