Rhys Williams

Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams says patient tactics can pay off at Aintree

Aintree
Our racing expert has one selection on Friday

Our resident tipster has had two winning NAPs this week and is back today with a sole selection at Aintree.

  • Likely strong pace to suit

  • Needs to be ridden with patience

  • The Big Lense is overpriced at Aintree


Aintree - 19:00 - Back The Big Lense

This race looks likely to be strongly run with at least three of the seven runners likely to want to lead and a few others who may not be far off that pace. With that in mind, I think it could pay to be held up and there's one obvious candidate to fulfil that role.

The Big Lense hasn't won since July 2021 but he's run some good races in defeat over fences since joining James Owen.

On his second start for the yard at Leicester, he was held up in last early on before jumping his way closer with a circuit to go. He continued to travel well in behind the leaders until hitting the front at 3 out but he hit the top of the fence which halted his momentum. He rallied well under pressure but couldn't quite match Jacamar on the run-in.

The Big Lense failed to build on that next time when ridden prominently over 3m but showed more at Huntingdon when back down in trip to 2m4f when finishing fourth having made his move into contention sooner than I think would have been ideal.

The Big Lense ran well two starts ago when dropped back to 2m at Worcester after 64 days off. That trip was clearly too sharp for him and the ground was softer than the official good ground which may not have helped his cause either but he rallied well late on to finish third.

It's easy to forgive his latest run as that was over hurdles in a steadily run race which didn't suit whereas the likely strong pace today will be ideal for him.

I'm hoping the pace will be so strong that Alex Chadwick is forced into delivering a late challenge as I think he was too eager to make his move at Leicester and Huntingdon and The Big Lense looks the type who needs to be delivered with patience and one run.

He's clearly not easy to win with which is an obvious concern and his jumping has let him down on occasions but despite the early market support this morning, I think he's still overpriced given this scenario could be ideal for him and any 6/17.00 or bigger appeals.

Back The Big Lense in the 19:00 at Aintree 1pt win at 7/18.00

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RHYS’ PROFIT/LOSS 2023

Staked: 133.50pts

Returned: 151.21pts

P/L: +17.71pts

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