Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies today to be the day for Carroll sprinter at York

• Got there too soon last time

• Strong pace to suit

• Arecibo is overpriced at York

York - 14:15 - Back Arecibo

Arecibo's frequent habit of running eye-catchingly without winning throughout his career has led to sarcastic calls of 'next time Arecibo backers' and it's been best to stay away from backing him but today's circumstances have finally lured me in.

He was on a gradual decline for Robert Cowell last season but after being bought for 24,000gns to join Declan Carroll, he's shown more on two starts this season. He travelled strongly in behind the pace at Musselburgh on his first start of the season before being angled out to challenge Equality with just over a furlong to go but he couldn't quite get past that class-dropping rival.

On his latest start at Thirsk, I thought the pace wasn't as strong as Arecibo wants and he couldn't help but get into a challenging position too soon and ended up finishing fourth.

There shouldn't be any repeat of those issues today given the various frequent front runners in this field and there's likely to be a very strong pace as a result. I think the return to a quicker surface could also suit him and it might be that the reapplication of blinkers will see Arecibo be a bit braver in the closing stages.

Of course, it may be that once again it will be a case of 'next time Arecibo backers' but the price is too big to pass up under these circumstances. Any 16/117.00 or bigger appeals.

Now read Tony Calvin's Thursday tips here.