Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies Mystical to storm home at York

• Likely strong pace to suit

• Any further rain to help

• Mystical Storm is overpriced at York

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York - 13:25 - Back Shes Got The Blues

Shes Got The Blues finished well behind Golden Palace on debut at Beverley but I think she can at least get closer this afternoon at York and run better than her big price suggests.

She was a bit slowly away and shifted out to the left and her inexperience then showed as she had to be shaken along. That continued for much of the race until she finally got the idea in the closing stages and although she was never remotely in contention, she was strong through the line and took a bit of pulling up after.

I'm expecting Shes Got The Blues to have improved mentally for that experience and the step up to six furlongs looks very likely to suit. The slightly softer ground is likely to help her chance too and while it might be that she only shows her best a bit further down the line, I think she's overpriced given the potential for improvement. Any 16/117.00 or bigger appeals.

York - 14:00 - Back Sergeant Wilko

Sergeant Wilko is drawn closest to the stands' side rail and I think the market is underestimating his chance of making all against it in this six-furlong handicap.

He responded well to the application of cheekpieces for the first time when finishing fourth at Haydock two starts ago. He was soon in front in the middle of the track and was a couple of lengths in front at halfway. He was headed a furlong out but kept battling away and finished fourth behind three horses who had raced on the near side while Sergeant Wilko had easily beaten his group down the middle.

While he has won over that C&D, I'm not sure Sergeant Wilko was ideally suited by the test that six furlongs at Newcastle provided last time and he ran respectably to finish fifth. I think the return to a flat six furlongs and ground that is just on the soft side today will be ideal for him and unless Sophia's Starlight tries to press him, he may be able to make the running without too much pressure on the near side.

It could be that he will once again be vulnerable to late challengers after setting a strong pace but I think there might be a bit more to come from Sergeant Wilko under these circumstances and any 16/117.00 or bigger appeals.

York - 17:00 - Back Mystical Storm

Mystical Storm was a comfortable winner in a novice race last time and I think he has a good chance to follow up back in handicap company.

He showed a good level of ability in two starts on ground on the soft side last year and the way he travelled for much of the race on his seasonal debut at Redcar suggested that ability was still there. He was disappointing on handicap debut at Haydock but I'm not sure he was ideally suited by the ground or the way that race was run.

Mystical Storm won with more in hand than the margin suggests at Doncaster last time on his first start after a wind op and I think he could build on that here given the likely strong pace could set up the race ideally for him to close from the back of the field. The return to slightly slower ground is also likely to help his cause and while I have a concern that he might just be a strong traveller who doesn't find as much as seems likely under pressure, this race is likely to play to his strength. Any 11/26.50 or bigger appeals. 

Now read Katie Midwinter's Saturday tips here.