Saturday Horse Racing Tips: Katie Midwinter's best bets from 4/1 to 20/1

• Katie Midwinter has five selections at Ascot and York on Saturday

• Talented filly has the ability to land the feature race

• Bay City Roller can star on the Knavesmire

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York, 14:00 - Back Caburn E/W @ 20/121.00

Caburn makes his handicap debut from a rating of 94 in his first start for James Tate on the Knavesmire, having recently switched stables from the Jack Jones operation.

For his previous trainer, the Twilight Son colt won both of his first two starts, defying odds of 14/115.00 and 12/113.00 respectively when beating numerous subsequent winners including now 111-rated Commonwealth Cup heroine Time For Sandals.

He also finished sixth in the Group Two Gimcrack Stakes over this course-and-distance, beaten three-and-a-half-lengths by winner Cool Hoof Luke, with subsequent dual Group One winner Shadow Of Light in second, and Big Mojo, who was narrowly beaten in the July Cup this month, only a length-and-a-half ahead in fourth. 

Considering the form he has shown previously in Stakes company, Caburn should fare better than in recent runs now in the handicap sphere, capable of improving on his recent disappointing effort in the Jersey Stakes. He drops in class here and could be on a lenient mark should he prove he has trained on from his debut campaign.

Clifford Lee has a 27 percent all-time strike-rate for the yard, a 36 percent success-rate for the year so far, and he also boasts a good record at the track. He could be able to guide Caburn to a third career success from seven starts at odds of 20/121.00, but can make the frame at the least with five places available.

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Ascot, 14:20 - Back Glittering Surf E/W @ 12/113.00

Oasis Dream filly Glittering Surf shouldn't be discounted in this Group Three contest after suffering the sole defeat of her career to date when last seen in Listed company at York.

On that occasion, the Owen Burrows-trained filly performed with some credit in her first Turf start, but couldn't quicken effectively enough to pose a serious threat for the major honours.

It could prove worth keeping the faith in her, however, as she had previously beaten Bermuda Longtail, second at York, in a Kempton mile race, which followed a convincing debut success at the same venue.

The three-year-old, who is out of Sparkling Surf, a half-sister to Group One winning Kitesurf, could fare better this time around despite the step up in class, and has the scope for further improvement on only her fourth career start. She is a filly with potential and represents value at odds of 12/113.00 with four places available.

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York, 14:40 - Back Bay City Roller @ 6/17.00

New Bay colt Bay City Roller recorded three victories as a juvenile in a flawless campaign which culminated in a Group Three success in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster.

A €320,000 purchase as a yearling, the exciting prospect, who changed hands following a debut success at Sandown, has shown plenty of class during his career to date, but is bidding to return to winning ways following two defeats in as many races so far this term.

On his reappearance as a three-year-old, Bay City Roller finished a two-and-a-half-length second to Opera Ballo in the Listed Heron Stakes before being beaten only three-quarters-of-a-length by one of the ante-post favourites for the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, Daryz, in a Saint-Cloud Group Two.

His latest run in France was his first start over further than a mile, attempting the mile-and-a-quarter trip for the first time which appeared likely to suit considering his dam, Bloomfield, achieved Listed success over 1m6f and has also produced Botanical, a winner over this distance who has been rated as high as 110.

The only blemishes on his record so far are when he has been beaten by top class rivals. He's proven at this level as a juvenile and is more than capable of making his presence felt for George Scott under Callum Shepherd.

Bay City Roller could be saying "bye-bye baby" to the rest of the field and become a summer sensation in the York Stakes.

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Ascot, 15:00 - Back Golden Mind E/W @ 20/121.00

Four-year-old gelding Golden Mind wasn't seen to best effect in the Wokingham Stakes when last seen at Royal Ascot, but had previously been denied only a head by Partisan Hero when outrunning odds of 25/126.00 in the final race on Oaks day at Epsom.

Whilst he's 2lb higher than that effort here, he has the capable Warren Fentiman claiming 5lb in the saddle, which should allow him to be competitive at the weights and return to form.

Earlier this year, the Richard Fahey-trained contender won a Kempton handicap from a 2lb lower rating, defying odds of 22/123.00 when equipped with a first-time tongue-tie, and from a workable rating here, he warrants consideration at generous odds once again.

Golden Mind is no stranger to springing a surprise, running well on multiple occasions at double-figure odds, and he could do so again at a price of 20/121.00 with eight places available.

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Ascot, 16:10 - Back Kalpana @ 4/15.00

In the prestigious King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes, Andrew Balding-trained filly Kalpana makes the most appeal ahead of formidable rivals Calandagan and Jan Brueghel, as well as talented globetrotter Rebel's Romance.

The four-year-old was an impressive Group One winner here on Champions Day against the fillies and mares last term, before returning to action this season with a creditable third in the Tattersalls Gold Cup in open company.

That day at the Curragh, she was beaten only a length-and-a-half by top class colt Los Angeles, with Anmaat in second, finishing ahead of White Birch in a performance that could be upgraded considering the trip was likely shorter than ideal and she wasn't favoured by her route in the straight.

In her latest start, the daughter of Study Of Man was well backed into 5/61.84 favouritism for the Pretty Polly Stakes, but could only manage second to Oaks runner-up Whirl, who prevailed by a length-and-a-quarter. The eventual winner was able to show tenacity to battle back and beat her older rival, but it was again a trip that doesn't perfectly suit Kalpana, who isn't shy on stamina and may prefer slightly easier conditions, too.

Capable of bouncing back to form, the return to a mile-and-a-half is certain to suit and should see Kalpana to better effect and, considering she is likely trained for an attempt at the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, she should be improving with each run this term, set to peak at the back end of the campaign in the autumn but ready to strike at this stage of the season, too.

Possessing plenty of class, Kalpana holds leading claims and has the talent to pose a dangerous threat to her rivals in this contest under Oisin Murphy.

You can read my full guide to all the King George runners here.

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