Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies Joly to bounce back at Southwell

• Return to softer ground

• Likely good pace to suit

• Joly Maker is overpriced w/o the fav at Southwell

Southwell - 15:20 - Back Joly Maker w/o the favourite

Swapped is an odds-on favourite for this handicap chase and rightly so with the cheekpieces and switch to fences having brought about improvement on his last two starts.

He was unlucky to come up against a very well handicapped Chief Black Robe at Newton Abbot and he won with far more in hand than the result suggests last time when not doing much once hitting the front. Rather than take him on, I think there's an appealing bet in the without the favourite market.

I think this race is likely to be run at a good pace with Swapped, Duke Of Luckley and Raecius Felix all potentially challenging for the lead in the early stages. That could set the race up for Joly Maker to close late and bounce back from his recent efforts.

He was well held at Stratford and Bangor on his last two starts but both of those were on good ground and it might be that he now needs the ground to be on the soft side to show his best. He ran respectably over C&D three starts ago in a race that wasn't run to suit and he now races off only a 1lb higher mark than when winning at Stratford on his first start of the year.

There is always the worry with Joly Maker that he's not straightforward and maybe he'll have another off day even under these more favourable circumstances but I think he should be closer to Duke Of Luckley and Raecius Felix in the market.

Given those two could harm each other's chance up front and any 4/15.00 or bigger appeals in the without the favourite market.

Read Daryl Carter's Tuesday tips here.