Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 40/1 winning pointer at Killarney

• Eyecatching run on stable debut

• Likely stronger pace to suit

• Erzindjan is overpriced at York

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Killarney - 13:20 - Back Val Venus

This is my last column for Betfair and I'm not about to suddenly break habit so, as with so many of my columns, the first selection is an ex-pointer at a big price in a maiden hurdle.

Val Venus made his debut at the end of his five-year-old year at Turtulla and was sent off favourite but after travelling strongly into a share of the lead at the last, he made a mistake and had nothing left on the run-in. Another jumping error put him on the back foot on his second start at Curraghmore but he recovered well and ended up winning with a bit in hand having looked to not be doing much in front late on.

He looked the type to benefit from a sharper test and he ran respectably in a point bumper at Tipperary when he looked to be travelling best early in the home straight but didn't pick up as well under pressure as seemed likely. Of the other six of the first seven home that day, three are now rated between 108 and 110 over hurdles in Britain and Ireland while Jumble Light has since finished one place behind Wholelotofbusiness in a maiden hurdle.

Val Venus showed little in two starts over hurdles after moving to Pat Hurley and he's now back with Eddie Power and returning to the track after just over a year off. Given the time off since those two poor runs, it could be that Val Venus had a problem that was causing him to finish so weakly and if he returns to the level of ability that he had when previously with Power then he could run far better than his big price suggests.

It may be that he will need this after a break and handicaps will be where he shows his best or that much like the similarly named wrestler when he joined Right To Censor, Val Venus just isn't what he once was but I can't let him go unbacked in a race of this quality at a big price and any 25/126.00 or bigger appeals.

York - 16:10 - Back Nimitz

Nimitz could only finish ninth at Glorious Goodwood but he ran well in the circumstances and I think can outperform market expectations under a more favourable scenario today.

He was dropping back in trip to five furlongs at Goodwood and that looked too sharp for him. As it turned out he was also poorly drawn in a race dominated by those racing nearer to the stands' side and Nimitz was the first finisher of those who raced in his group in the middle of the track. Of the others in that group, Rosario ran very well in defeat since while Rocking Ends won next time and a couple of others have run respectably in defeat.

Given the circumstances, I thought a 3lb drop for Nimitz was generous and he's better drawn today in stall 19 although the going stick suggests it's now slightly less favoured than seemed likely. The return to six furlongs should suit and he has a positive jockey switch with Jamie Spencer taking over so I think he could run better than the price currently suggests. Any 20/121.00 or bigger appeals.

York - 17:20 - Back Erzindjan

In the final race at York, I think Erzindjan has a strong chance after running very well on stable debut in the John Smith's Cup.

He was held up that day in a slowly run race and still had only three horses behind him turning into the home straight. He made headway while still travelling well from around four furlongs out and then finished strongly once switched for a clear run on the far side to finish fourth.

Considering how poorly positioned he was, I thought that was a very encouraging run from Erzindjan and suggested he retained the ability when competing in group races in Meydan. This race is likely to be stronger run with a few who could take each other on up front so that should set up better for him and he has a good chance of gaining a first win since April 2021. Any 5/16.00 or bigger appeals. 

Now read Katie Midwinter's Saturday tips here.