Rhys Williams' Wednesday Racing Tips: Wind op the magic ingredient for Potion

Wind op can bring significant improvement

Warwick 13:45: Secret Potion 2pt win 100/30

Shanroe Tic Tec and Blazing Saddles head the market for this 0-115 handicap hurdle and both have been running well of late. However, I'm not sure either has much in hand off their current ratings and the ground may not be ideal for Blazing Saddles. Instead, a couple of horses who have been well beaten in their latest runs make plenty of appeal against them.

Secret Potion is a rare case of a Paul Nicholls-trained horse rated in the 90s over hurdles and the lowest rated horse of his I can remember for some time, with Nineohtwooneoh the closest one that comes to mind having been rated 94 when bolting up at Musselburgh.

Secret Potion's rating of 92 was gained after four runs over hurdles and the closest he got to the winner of any occasion was 37 lengths on his hurdling debut at Wincanton. He jumped very cautiously that day and was struggling a long way out.

His jumping was much improved next time at Hereford when putting in his most promising performance over hurdles. He was in touch with the leaders in third leaving the back straight before weakening quickly and finishing a well-beaten fifth. He showed little on his latest two starts and was beaten 48 and 49 lengths respectively.

On all three of his most recent starts, he's been reported to have had a breathing problem and since running at Plumpton he's had a wind op. A tongue tie now goes on and it would be no surprise if he was to improve significantly for this and start to show the ability over hurdles that he did on the flat for Henk Grewe.

He finished a close third behind subsequent Group 1 third and Melbourne Cup tenth Ashrun at Hanover and ran well in defeat when sixth in a Listed race at Clairefontaine. If he was to receive a flat rating in Britain, it would likely be around the same number as his current hurdles rating so he's certainly shown enough ability in the past to think he's better than a rating of 92 over hurdles.

The soft ground is an unknown for him but his action suggests he can handle it and he ran well enough for a long way at Hereford to think it's not a major concern.

It may of course turn out that the wind op doesn't have any positive impact on Secret Potion and he fails to improve but there's a chance that he's much better than his rating and I would make him favourite for this race as a result.

Drop back in trip to suit

Warwick 13:45: Shaw's Cross 1pt win 17/2

Shaw's Cross is the other runner who appeals in this contest and he returns to Warwick only 11 days after running a promising race at the same track.

That came over 2m5f and he was held up towards the outside through the first half of the race. He started to make some headway going down the back straight and eased into a share of third just before turning the final bend. He started to be pushed along at that point and gradually dropped away in the straight to finish 21 lengths behind the winner in sixth.

That was a more promising run from Shaw's Cross having shown very little on both starts last year and suggested that he retains enough ability to be competitive under suitable circumstances.

I think those circumstances are in place today as he drops back to 2m, should get a decent pace to close off with Blazing Saddles and Shanroe Tic Tec likely to force the pace and now has Tom O'Brien taking over in the saddle.

Shaw's Cross was dropped 3lb for his latest run to 100, 4lb lower than the rating he last won off at Lingfield in December 2019. There's no guarantee that he will back up the promise of his last run and it was on tiring ground only 11 days ago but I would have him closer to the front end of the market and any 6/1 or bigger appeals.