Rhys Williams' Thursday Racing Tips: Story to spring a surprise

Return to left-handed track will suit

Tipperary 14:35: Rosy Story 0.5pt e/w 50/1

Those with hurdling experience towards the front of the market for division one of the mares maiden hurdle at Tipperary hardly set a formidable standard and it would be no surprise if Brampton Belle turned out to be good enough to win this on debut. However, there's a horse who finished a long way behind the favourite last time who could be capable of significantly improving.

Rosy Story was 25 lengths behind Leac An Scail Lady at Downpatrick earlier this month. While the latter was always close to the lead, the complete opposite was the case for Rosy Story. She was held up last and frequently jumped slowly or made mistakes and jumped out to the left. Coming down the hill after 2 out, she looked like she would finish a very long way behind but she did run on quite well up the stiff climb to the line.

A reproduction of that run would give her absolutely no chance but there's reason to think that she could improve from it. She lost plenty of ground and momentum with her jumping and I think that was caused by her frequently looking to edge left before the hurdles on the right-handed track so the left-handed track today should suit.

She had also shown enough ability at her best in the pointing field to suggest that she's better than she showed there. On her first start of the 2019/20 season, she finished second to Style It Out, who is now rated 119 over hurdles. On her next start at Boulta she finished 16 lengths behind subsequent Grade 3 hurdle winner Sayce Gold while finishing 2½ lengths ahead of the now 95-rated hurdler Gold Creek. She was third again on her final start of 2019 behind Wouldubewell and Sovereign Gold, who are now rated 122 and 118 respectively.

Rosy Story broke her maiden on her first start last Autumn when winning cosily having squeezed through a gap on the inside between the last two fences. She followed that up with another two good runs in defeat. The first of those was behind the now 97-rated Doyen Queen at Dromahane when that rival was a bit slicker away from the last. She then ended her time in the pointing field with a second place at Turtulla behind Getawayrooney, who has won again since. Doyen Queen finished behind her that day, as did Lorvon Pearl who previously finished second in a mares maiden hurdle at Clonmel.

I'm also hoping that they will return to riding Rosy Story far more prominently than was the case at Downpatrick. She's raced handily in points and with this trip likely being a bit sharper than ideal, it would be a good idea for those tactics to be used.

The 2m4½f distance around this track is a worry as it's probably sharper than ideal for her and it might be that handicaps over distances around 3m in the future will be where she shows her full ability under rules.

However, the form of her point runs suggest that she's more talented than the market is giving her credit for being and I can't let her go unbacked at a huge price.