Rhys Williams' Friday Racing Tips: Forecast rain to suit Pursuit

Forecast heavy rain in her favour

Bath 13:20: Sweet Pursuit 1pt win 10/1

While the ground at Bath early this morning is good, good to soft in places there's constant heavy rain forecast between now and the first race and that could result in a significant change in the going description.

While she doesn't need soft ground, such a change is likely to favour Sweet Pursuit more than some of her rivals and I think her current price doesn't reflect the expected softer ground. She ran well off an 8lb higher mark over six furlongs on soft ground at Goodwood last summer. She raced prominently in the group in the middle of the track and she responded well to pressure to still be in contention until fading away in the final half furlong.

On her following start at Salisbury, she was shuffled back early on. She made a little headway around two furlongs out but could never get competitive and was racing away from the favoured near side which did her chance no favours.

She was drawn towards the outside at Pontefract on her final start of last year and was dropped in to race a bit closer to the inside. She was nudged along four furlongs out and came under stronger pressure turning the bend. She picked up well and was staying on in fourth when slightly hampered on a couple of occasions a furlong out. She couldn't go with the wide-margin winner but ran on well to finish third.

Sweet Pursuit was well beaten on her first start of this season over six furlongs at Nottingham but all of the action was in the middle of the track and those who raced near side throughout were all well held so there is an excuse for that.

Her runs over six furlongs suggest that the slight drop back in trip today will help and she is a winner over C&D from just two attempts.

They may also be able to return to riding Sweet Pursuit more prominently today and that would be helpful in a race where there's not too much early speed so it could be favourable to be handy.

There is a concern that she may need another run or two to hit her peak this season and Bath could have a miracle and not get anywhere near as much rain as forecast.

However, a miracle would be a suitable description of that happening and with conditions likely to turn things in Sweet Pursuit's favour, any 6/1 or bigger appeals.