Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies juvenile to score in Ayr handicap

• Two good runs in handicap company

• Likely strong pace to suit

• Afadil is overpriced at Ayr

Chance to build on handicap promise

Ayr 13:15: Afadil 1pt win 100/30

Afadil was a big eyecatcher in the Fred Winter and after being unlucky to run into a rejuvenated stablemate at Ascot last time, I think he has a strong chance of getting off the mark in handicap company at Ayr this afternoon.

He was a bit slowly away from the standing start in the Fred Winter and ended up at the back of the field with a circuit to run. He was still at the back of the main group coming down the hill and could never get into contention but he did finish strongly to take eighth.

Afadil was ridden much handier at Ascot last time and either led or had a share of it through the first half of the race until tucking in behind Penna Rossa going into Swinley Bottom. He was still going well turning into the home straight in second behind Blueking d'Oroux but he couldn't match the pace of that rival late on and finished two lengths behind him.

Blueking d'Oroux was bouncing back to the ability he had shown in France and he has since gone on to finish second at Aintree under a 7lb penalty.

Afadil has only been put up 1lb for that run and he looks the type to be suited by a strongly run race which he should get here. The likely pace scenario may also not be ideal for his two market rivals who are both front runners.

It may be that Afadil will only show his best over a bit further next season but I think he's got enough ability now to take advantage of a mark of 122 and any 3/1 or bigger appeals.