Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: Back One Night in Milan to continue impressive Kelso form

We dealt with Kelso's Morebattle handicap hurdle on Monday and I make no apologies for stressing once again that the key to midweek ante-post betting is minimising the weekend no-shows.

I know this sounds like stating the bleedin' obvious but plenty ignore this approach. Each to their own I guess, but identifying races that are likely to cut up affords punters that rare opportunity of finding a betting angle in ante-post markets that tend to be priced up very defensively indeed.

Three of Kelso's four ITV races really do have the capability to do just that - a glance at the list of double-entered horses below tells you that - but I am going to concentrate on where I think there is a bet to be had, and ditch the no-punt flowery guff.

We have eight fresh ITV races to go at, after all.

Keep an eye on an old mate

On the face of it, the 23-runner 2m5f handicap hurdle at Kelso (14:05) looks pretty daunting, but surely a lot of these will be heading for the 100k Morebattle later on in the card, and, of course, my old mate N'golo immediately caught the eye at 20/1.

He gave the outside to no-one at Ascot last time and was dropped another 4lb for it, and perhaps they will put the tongue-tie and some headgear back on again here too, but I'd prefer to see him entered up on Thursday and know where we stand with him on the accoutrements (every time I write that word, I immediately think of Nick Luck).

One Night in Milan should relish Kelso return...

I am going to put a 20s chance up here win-only though, and that is One Night In Milan with the Betfair Sportsbook.

I appreciate all his best form has come in small fields and that he doesn't appear to have run too well at Musselburgh last time, but there are plenty of positives to be stressed for him.

Firstly, that run at Musselburgh last time, a handicap in which he was beaten 12 lengths. I obviously went back and had a look at the race again and I was expecting to see that he was ridden a 7lb claimer there, as his jockey looked a touch disorganised up the straight.

But it was actually Brian Hughes, and I imagine he was very happy with the way he was going turning into the straight, travelling nicely on the inside. He clearly didn't pick up as expected, but he ran better than it looked in that Pertemps qualifier, that is for sure.

Dropped a further 2lb here, he is very well weighted again and the Kelso weather forecast has improved, which will be in his favour I feel.

He handles heavy but a lot of his best efforts have come on decent ground, so the drier the better for him, without being a deal-breaker.

And, of course, his (hopeful) return to Kelso must be considered a massive plus.

His course form figures read 1F12, and the two defeats came when he fell travelling well on the inner 4 out here in 2018 (he was trading at 2.3 at the time) and when a length second to the then 136-rated Aye Right in 2019.

Impressive reading then.

He has come down to 127, 1lb lower than his last winning mark, and the Keith Dalgleish yard is currently going really well. His last three runners on the Flat have yielded two winners, and a neck second on Monday evening.

He is clearly no sexy merchant but 20s win-only looks too big, all things considered. Odds of 14/1 would be my strict cut-off point for him (the lowest price in the marketplace as I publish is 16s).

Newbury looks like being soft at a minimum for their two-day meeting starting on Friday, with a particularly wet Tuesday (up to 17mm forecast by one site on Tuesday and Wednesday, with more on Wednesday) in store it seems.

We could be looking at borderline heavy if the worst-case scenario lands. In fact, the going there has just been changed to soft (good to soft) in places as I write, so they obviously copped a fair bit on Tuesday morning already (5mm by 10.41am, it seems).

So that at least stops me putting up the punting car crash that is Deyrann de Carjac again in the Greatwood at 13:50, as I very much doubt he will run if that forecast is only half right.

Nothing interests me at Newbury but do look to side with a horse that can handle deep ground if you are playing. Otherwise, you may not even get a run for your money. The more I look the more I am thinking it will be heavy.

The Doncaster ground hasn't been the best for a while, as the grass covering has left something to be desired in recent seasons by all accounts.

It is currently good to soft (good to places) and I'd be anticipating pretty much that by the weekend - the current forecast is not too bad there - and hopefully not churned-up dead ground after they have raced there on the Friday.

To be honest, nothing much interested me there at this stage - nothing, in fact - even if the Grimthorpe Chase's numbers could be somewhat reduced from 17 on Thursday.

Good luck.

Double Entires on Saturday's ITV races

Newbury 13:15: Aso, Colonial Dreams, Dingo Dollar, Indy Five, Kauto Riko, Saint Xavier,

Newbury 13:50: Cheddleton, Falco Blitz, Farinet, The Big Bite

Kelso 13:30: Alqamar, Bold Endeavour

Kelso 14:05: Saint D'oroux, Elvis Mail, Voix De Reve, Cormier, Balko Saint, Thereisnodoubt, Bold Endeavour (though presumably not qualified), Famous Bridge, Get Out The Gate, Seddon

Kelso 14:40: Cloth Cap, Dingo Dollar, Get Out The Gate, Kauto Riko, Windsor Avenue

Kelso 15:15: Saint D'oroux, Elvis Mail, Voix De Reve, Cormier, Balko Saint, Alqamar, Lebowski, Thereisnodoubt

Doncaster 14:20: Nextdoortoalice,

Doncaster 14:55: Cheddleton, Commis D'Office, Gaelik Coast, Numitor, Streets Of Doyen, The Big Bite

Doncaster 15:30: Alohamora, Aso, Chef D'Oeuvre, Cloth Cap, Empire De Maulde, Farinet, Storm Control, Streets Of Doyen, Undersupervision, Windsor Avenue

Profit and Loss (since April 14)

Staked: 294pts

Returns 492.66

P/L: + 198.66