Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: Mood makes Morebattle appeal

As for weak weekends, this is probably among the bottom (or is top?) three in the National Hunt calendar but we still have nine Saturday ITV races to go at, from three tracks, and the Betfair Sportsbook are one of a few bookmakers who have been betting on Kelso's Morebattle Hurdle for a while now.

It was changed to a handicap last year and threw up a subsequent Festival winner in The Shunter (albeit over fences), and it looks like being a competitive betting heat once again, as a result.

As it should be with that money on offer - and the added bonus of an err, £100,000 bonus, if the winner goes on to win at Cheltenham once again - but it has to be said that the take-up is disappointing.

There were 36 in the race before Monday's five-day declarations - there is a maximum field of 16 allowed on the day - and we now have just 17 in contention for the 100k prize.

The lure of Cheltenham and lesser money is easy to resist for many, following on from the 155k Betfair Hurdle and 150k Coral Trophy coming nowhere near to filling, it seems.

The weights went up just 3lb on Monday - Champion Hurdle-bound Tommy's Oscar came out - and that means three of the 17 will have to race from out of the handicap if Buveur D'Air stands his ground on Thursday.

And the latter's participation looks likely by all accounts.

The handicapper has given him a proper chance off 153 on his return to action after a 10 month absence, but he has hardly been missed by the layers with his second slot in the betting.

Likewise, Metier at the Sportsbook's current 7/2. I know he looks set to have his ground, but the odds-compilers want him onside, and then some. I wouldn't be massively interested in him at 5/1+, in truth.

Incidentally, the ground at Kelso is currently soft (good to soft in places) and I would be pretty confident that description will hold looking at the forecast.
Famous last words and all that, but it doesn't look that bad at the moment, if a splattering of rain looks likely on most days. Soft ground at worst is my working assumption as it stands.

Anyway, let's kick on.

Hard to navigate through double entry fog

I have a rule in these midweek ante-post columns that I don't tip horses who have other engagements, and theoretically that should rule out the following - Saint D'oroux, Elvis Mail, Voix De Reve, Cormier, Balko Saint, Alqamar, Lebowski, Thereisnodoubt - and narrow this down to just nine.

Indeed, seven if we are taking out the two aforementioned market-leaders on the basis of modest prices.

Add in the other single-priced runners of Balco Coastal, Autumn Evening and Falvoir - they are priced up to be dismissed at this stage at 5s, 5s and 6s respectively - and that makes a shortlist of four.

I appreciate it is very simplistic to rule out the double-entered horses with so much cash at stake - and I do find it hard to believe many, if any at all, will go down the 2m5f handicap hurdle route on the card - but this approach has served me well in at least finding ante-post runners (if not winners, admittedly) of late, so I will stay true to it.

And plenty of trainers and owners make mystifying decisions, after all.

That shortlist comprises of Severance (10/1), Hacker Des Places (16/1), Current Mood (16/1) and Some Reign (25/1).

I quite like the Cormier-Severance formline but the latter is a touch too short at 10/1 for me, given he is likely to be 2lb wrong on Saturday and would ideally want better ground than the expected soft, for all he has won on heavy.

Bigger and I may have taken my chances.

Hacker Des Places won nicely by 1 ¾ lengths when making all in a five-runner race on heavy ground at Chepstow on Saturday - I think he was value for more than the winning margin - but this is obviously far more competitive and he has picked up a 7lb penalty for that win.

He will probably not be going up by as much as 7lb when the handicapper re-assesses him, for all they pulled well clear of the third at the weekend, and it sounds as if Paul Nicholls would want it to rain at Kelso all week for this confirmed mud-lover. It may not be so.

And then there were two.

Get in the Mood

Given we have not seen the 11yo Some Reign since his chase win in October and temperament has seen him withdrawn on his last two intended starts, all roads lead to Current Mood at 16/1. Back her win only with the Sportsbook. 12/1 would be my betting cut-off point.

I love her profile.

She is a relatively lightly-raced novice, just 7yo with three wins from six starts over hurdles, and she can boast decent efforts in Grade 2 company, as well as form and good and soft ground, so the weather can do what it wants.

Her best effort is probably her third to Blazing Khal over 3m in the Ballymore Trial at Cheltenham in November, and that suggests to me her mark of 127 is very workable, as they say.

She was given a seven-week break prior to her Chepstow win on soft at the start of this month and she did it well from the front there from a subsequent winner, in a fair time, with the third well beaten off. Crucially, she showed she has the toe for 2m there. Indeed, as she did at Ffos Las earlier in the season.

The handicapper played fair in leaving her mark alone after that, and she just looks a well-weighted, ground-versatile, smooth travelling, uncomplicated ride, with a touch of class for one rated so lowly.

Granted, she won't get an easy time of it on the lead here should they look to go forward again and the stable is hardly firing (though they did have a winner at Hereford on Sunday), but she stands out at 16s to me, with the minimum price guide as above.

Voix De Reve is big at 20s and 25s too, if they come back down to this more suitable 2m trip with him off a falling mark, but that double-entry just ruled him out of contention for now.

Good luck.

DOUBLE ENTRIES ON THE MOREBATTLE
Kelso 3.15pm; Saint D'oroux, Elvis Mail, Voix De Reve, Cormier, Balko Saint, Alqamar, Lebowski, Thereisnodoubt

PROFIT AND LOSS (since April 14)
Staked: 294pts
Returns 492.66
P/L: + 198.66