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Two tips elsewhere with a bonus Friday pick
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Alan Dudman delivers his latest antepost column ahead of the weekend
If you have a good ground horse, you might as well ladder up and wait as the forecast is wet (to say the least) for Cheltenham's first big meeting of the season.
Friday kicks off the Paddy Power Gold Cup fixture although the only bet that stands out for the opening day is Gunsight Ridge in the Veterans' Chase at 13:45.
With the glut of veterans' races at the moment (every card and fixture seems to have one), they'll be running out of old boys soon and Friday's race could see a reduction from the decs as quite a few have recently been out. And in Twig's case just five days ago with a win.
Gunsight Ridge on the other foot - and it's a soggy foot at the moment - is a heavy ground winner and his fourth in the Red Rum Handicap Chase at the Grand National should be a bit too hot for this company. His mark remains unchanged from 145. Yes, he has top weight, but this sort of grade against veterans is easier than any standard 0-145 or 0-150.
He flopped at the November meeting here last year, but it was good ground, he fell and was never happy. Either side of that he sluiced up in soft at Perth and his Sandown win was in heavy so conditions will be right for Olly Murphy's chaser - ably assisted by eminence grise Sean Bowen - a rider all limbs and animation that is needed in these conditions.
Back Gunsight Ridge in the 13:45 at Cheltenham on Friday
Dan Skelton's Be Aware left me frustrated as a hurdler on many occasions. Since his Sandown second in the Novices' Championship Final Handicap Hurdle of April 2024, he failed to win any race over hurdles and also had my money with him in a losing Coral Cup effort.
Now there is a caveat here with most antepost bets it seems, as he is entered in the Novices' Chase over 3m1f on Friday for which he is 3/14.00, with his 4/15.00 price here for the much shorter distance. With the ground likely to be soft, the Saturday race over shorter can be a better option.
His chasing career got off to a good footing last time at Stratford - a race won by a couple of Skelton luminaries in the past.
It was good to soft and soft in the places at the home of the Bard and Skelton said post-race he has trained him very differently now and he is a lot happier with him. A talented horse who fails to engage his brain said Dan the dancer.
Crucially, the trainer said after his chasing debut win that 2m in soft is ideal, or will be ideal and while often keen over hurdles and enthusiastic, jumping fences has clamed him down.
Whether he is up to Arkle standard we will see, but there's a talent there and fences could well bring out the best in him.
Back Be Aware in the 13:45 at Cheltenham on Saturday
Soft conditions will be up Vincenzo's strasse too for Saturday and hopefully he takes his chance in the feature Paddy Power - and a 5/16.00 chance too for Sam Thomas.
It's worth mentioning the talent of Thomas, who has been chipping away with winners and good chasing stock for a couple of seasons from his stable in the heart of Glamorgan. His runners often possess qualities that are desirable when going from the front.
Thomas, at the time of writing on Tuesday morning, was at 7-13 at 54% and a three from five record with his chasers. A strike-rate as attractive as his own model looks that wouldn't look out of place in country edition of Tatler.
Vincenzo fits the correct and appealing age bracket as a seven-year-old, as since 2005 and the victory of Our Vic, the age group has recorded a healthy ten successes.
He's also pretty low mileage over fences with four runs as a novice last term capped off by a fine second in the Newbury Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase in March from 134, with the Newbury specialist Saint Segal nearly five lengths behind in third.
His jumping improved with every start, and certainly got better since his chase debut at Windsor and going left-handed looks as if it will suit him down the line more so than going the other way. With Dylan Johnston booked to claim 3lb, Vincenzo's chances look sound to me to give Thomas a big Saturday success.
Back Vincenzo in the 14:20 at Cheltenham on Saturday