Dave Tindall says get on Max Homa at 30/1
Adrian Meronk is outsider pick at 399/1
Ten year trends, play profiles and form to guide you
The best bets for 2023's second Major
Steve Rawlings: "The US PGA Championship has moved around a bit in the calendar over the last few years but a previous win earlier in the season has been a very strong pointer historically with as many as 18 of the last 23 winners having already won an event prior to their success in the US PGA Championship.
"It's not especially incredible that a major should be won by someone that had already tasted success earlier in the season, especially when it used to feature towards the end of the season. But it's worth highlighting that the list of 18 includes some very unlikely US PGA winners, with the likes of Y.E.Yang, Rich Beem, David Toms and Keegan Bradley all winning a tournament earlier in the season before they won what was then the final major of the year.
"This used to be a great Championship for big outsiders and the three winners between 2001 and 2003 - David Toms, Rich Beem and Shaun Micheel - went off at huge prices. They were very hard to pick and had either Chris DiMarco or Justin Leonard won the 2004 playoff at Whistling Straits instead of Vijay Singh, the run of triple-figure priced winners would have stretched to four.
"The 2009 champ, Y.E Yang, went off at around 330.0, Keegan Bradley was matched at a whopping 650.0 before the off 12 years ago, the 2016 winner, Jimmy Walker, was matched at a juicy 220.0 and Mickelson was a whopping 540.0 chance two years ago, but four of the last five winners have been easy enough to spot...
"Tony Finau ticks plenty of boxes and I was happy to chance him at 34.0. Bang in-form after his victory at the Mexico Open a couple of weeks ago, Finau is yet to win a major but as highlighted above, first-time major winners have a good record in the US PGA Championship."
Dave Tindall says: "Max Homa finished in the top six whereas at the time of writing there are 17 players above him in the betting this week. Americans have won the last seven editions of the US PGA which helped him but he also ticked many other boxes.
"Homa is World No.6, has a win this season, was eighth at Wells Fargo on his latest start (eight of the last 10 US PGA winners had posted a top 20 last time out), is a relative newbie in this event (eight of the last 10 winners had played between zero and five) while he ranked a healthy-enough 72nd in Driving Distance (302.2 yards).
"Nine of the last 10 US PGA winners had also managed a previous top 20 in the event and even though there's not a trace of top 10 yellow in the Majors box on his wikipedia page, Homa did deliver a tied 13th (10th after 54 holes) in the 2022 US PGA at Southern Hills.
"True, there's no getting away from the fact that Homa has precisely zero top 10s in his 14 Majors but let's look a little closer at those numbers. In the first eight, he missed seven cuts; that's pretty woeful. But now he's made the weekend (actually the top 48) in five of the last six and the best of those (tied 13th) came in this event...
"If all the above is waffle, I'll just distill the argument down to this. Homa is the World No.6 and he's 30/1. Get on."
Steve Rawlings says: "Step forward the 29-year-old, world number 47, Adrian Meronk, who looks an incredible price at over 400.0.
"Meronk, who turns 30 at the end of the month, was an impressive winner of the Italian Open two weeks ago (his third DP World Tour win in 24 starts), where he ranked inside the top-ten for both Driving Distance and Driving Accuracy, number one for Strokes Gained Off the Tee, Tee 2 Green and Around the Green, as well as first for Scrambling!
"He became the first Pole to win on the DP World Tour in July last year and his victory in Rome two weeks ago means he's highly likely to be the first Pole to play in a Ryder Cup (in September).
"Meronk is on the crest of a wave and there's no reason why he can't ride the momentum and become the first Pole to win a major. But the beauty of trading on the Betfair Exchange means we only need him to contend to land ourselves a winning bet."
Dave Tindall says: "US PGA winners rarely come out of thin air. Often they've telegraphed their victory with a strong performance in a relatively recent major.
"The stats show that seven of the last 10 winners had posted a top 10 in one the previous two majors. Justin Thomas added to the list last year having finished tied eighth at the US Masters before landing this trophy.
"When Jason Dufner won at Oak Hill in 2013, it seemed the course had thrown up an appropriate winner given that he was a straight hitter, not a long one.
"But for this year's edition, the course has been lengthened, trees have been removed and it looks set up to be more like a typical US PGA track which rewards big hitting. That's reflected in the fact that seven of the last 10 US PGA winners ranked in the top 30 for Driving Distance in the season of their victory."
Dave Tindall says: "Tommy Fleetwood has the desired afternoon tee time, the Englishman heading off at 1.25pm on Thursday. Fleetwood hasn't managed to crack a Major over 72 holes but he's certainly pulled out some excellent single laps.
"In this event he was third after day one at nearby Winged Foot (mentioned as being similar to this test) in 2019 while a Friday 64 lifted him from 48th to second at halfway a year later at Harding Park.
"A fast finish in last year's PGA Championship at Southern Hills took him to fifth place. Fleetwood was also fourth after round one and fourth at the finish in the 2017 US Open and he closed with a stunning 63 to be runner-up a year later at Shinnecock...
"His game looks in excellent shape for this latest attempt to land a Major and he was the first-round leader at the Wells Fargo Championship on his final warm-up thanks to a 65."
Steve Rawlings says: "It's difficult to make a case for the 15/2 about there being a wire-to-wire winner being an outstanding price but all the major winners (including senior majors) at Oak Hill have been up with the pace throughout and two of the last six US PGA Championships were won wire-to-wire.
"It's a sporting wager that will definitely still be live on Friday morning and if we happen to get a couple of fancied players tied for the lead after round one the 15/2 will look huge."
Matt Cooper says: "'It sucked, it sucked,' Rory McIlroy repeated when he re-emerged following his missed cut at the Masters. "Just incredibly disappointing. I needed some time to regroup and focus on what's ahead." The reappearance came at Quail Hollow, a favourite course, and while he carded a first round 68 he never broke 70 again to finish T47th. That's three straight failures to land a top 40 in strokeplay events.
"There's quite a split in his event history: five top 10s in his first six starts and just two in his last eight. But it's worse than that because he's never been closer than nine shots off the lead with 18 holes to play in those last eight efforts."
Andy Swales says: "Trees, trees and more trees are a constant theme at this testing parkland layout where the newly-contoured putting surfaces will present the pros with plenty of serious decision-making this week.
"Fairways, as you'd expect from a course hosting a US Open or PGA Championship, will provide further challenges.
"Thanks to a number of subtle dog-legs, and the presence of well-positioned trees, those hoping to contend this week will need to locate the ideal part of the fairway from the tee in order to attack the pin..."
Andy Swales says: "More than 30 majors have been held in New York, and when the action tees-off at Oak Hill on Thursday, this event will become the 15th New York major during the last 40 years alone.
"It is also a state that tends to crown American-born champions, with only two of these 15 winners - Retief Goosen (South Africa) and Geoff Ogilvy (Australia) - hailing from overseas.
"During the same 40-year period, as many as 44 non-Americans have enjoyed major success on US soil - that's a strike rate of 36.67%, more than one in every three. Looking ahead to Thursday's opening round, will Americans continue their NY domination, or will one of golf's overseas stars prosper at Oak Hill?
"Patrick Cantlay is the highest-placed golfer yet to win a major. The eight-time PGA Tour winner has only ever registered three major top-10s, although his sole podium finish did at least happen in New York State four years ago."