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US PGA Championship Find Me a 100 Winner Special: In-form Meronk massively underestimated

Steven Rawlings
16 May 2023
4 min read

Adrain Meronk - fancied to contend at Oak Hill

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It's just two years since Phil Mickelson caused an almighty shock at Kiawah Island so outsiders can and do win the US PGA Championship. Golf betting expert Steve Rawlings has picked out three to trade at Oak Hill...

Pick Patrick at 180.0179/1 to win major number two
Box-ticking Pole a great price at 460.0459/1
in-form Aussie underestimated at 480.0479/1
Read all our US PGA Championship content here

As highlighted in my US PGA Championship preview, five of the last six winners have been easy enough to spot but Phil Mickelson caused an almighty shock two years ago when he won at Kiawah Island and we saw three triple-figure winners in-a-row between 2001 and 2003 so big outsiders can and do win this major.

Ranking at number 115 in the Official World Rankings and going off at around 540.0539/1, Lefty was pretty much ignored - as he was in April when he finished runner-up to Jon Rahm in the US Masters having been backed at odds in excess of 600.0599/1 before the off - and he's been underestimated once again.

The 52-year-old Californian will be in search of his third US PGA Championship title and his seventh major when he tees it up on Thursday at Oak Hill and I was happy to throw a few pounds in his direction at odds of more than 400.0399/1 just in case.

I also backed Si Woo Kim at a big price last week when he moved into contention at the Byron Nelson Championship, and I had intended to put up Justin Rose, but his price has collapsed this morning.

It's now ten years since the 42-year-old Englishman won the US Open but he's enjoying a bit of a resurgence this year, having won the AT&T Pebble Beach in February (his first win in four years), and there's reasons to believe he can win again here.

With top-ten finishes at Oakland Hills and Plainfield, a tenth and a fifth at Sedgefield, five top-six finishes at East Lake, and a win and a second at Aronimink, Rose's record around Donald Ross designed tracks is very strong and he even has form at Oak Hill.

He missed the cut here 20 years ago when 1000.0 chance, Shaun Micheel, won the US PGA Championship, and he was only 33rd here ten years ago but he sat fifth and only three off the lead at halfway.

Keep an eye on the market as he may drift before the off but I've got three more outsiders for the column, starting with the 2018 US Masters winner, Patrick Reed.

Pick Patrick to contend again

Like the aforementioned Mickelson, Reed now plies his trade on the LIV Golf Tour, and just like Lefty, he played really nicely at Augusta last month - eventually finishing fourth when a 100.099/1 selection for this column.

Patrick Reed Augusta.jpg

He didn't trade low enough at Augusta unfortunately but given that wasn't the first time he's played well away from LIV, I was more than happy to chance him again at a juicy 180.0179/1 here given he ticks a number of boxes.

Since signing for LIV, he's played two majors and a Dubai Desert Classic (where he traded at odds-on) and sixth at St Andrews in July is his worst finish. He finished second to Rory McIlroy in Dubai in January.

Always portrayed as the villain, Reed is clearly inspired to perform when he gets the chance to compete over four rounds now that he's one of the pariahs on the 54-hole team Tour, and there's reason to think he can contend again here at Oak Hill.

The first of Reed's nine PGA Tour wins came at the Wyndham Championship ten years ago at the Donald Ross designed Sedgefield Country Club and he was fifth at the Rocket Mortgage Classic around another Ross design in 2019.

He's not the longest off the tee and there's a school of thought that suggests that since Oak Hill's been lengthened, only bombers can contend there.

The tweet below mentions Winged Foot - where Bryson DeChambeau blasted his way to US Open glory three years ago - and length was important there, but Reed led at halfway there and he ranked only 108th for Driving Distance that season.

Feedback received from players on Oak Hill so far:

"Great if you can carry it 320."

"Reminds me of Winged Foot."
-- No Laying Up (@NoLayingUp) May 15, 2023

It's undeniable that hundreds of trees have been removed and that the course is longer now, but I'm not convinced that length is going to be the be all and end all this week.

The main mission of Andrew Green, the architect that's orchestrated Oak Hill's recent renovation, was to restore the course as close as possible to Ross' original 1925 layout so I'm happy to prioritise Ross course form and even if length is key, a sensational scrambler and putter like Reed can contend anywhere, even on long layouts like Winged Foot and Augusta.

2 u Back Patrick Reed @ 180.0179/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

Watch our Golf...Only Bettor USPGA special here

In-form Meronk massively underestimated

As highlighted in the preview, since Keegan Bradley's win in this Championship 12 years ago, the 2021 shock winner, Mickelson, is the only major champion that wasn't inside the world's top-50 and nine of the last 12 winners of this Championship have been in their 20s, so step forward the 29-year-old, world number 47, Adrian Meronk, who looks an incredible price at over 400.0399/1.

Meronk, who turns 30 at the end of the month, was an impressive winner of the Italian Open two weeks ago (his third DP World Tour win in 24 starts), where he ranked inside the top-ten for both Driving Distance and Driving Accuracy, number one for Strokes Gained Off the Tee, Tee 2 Green and Around the Green, as well as first for Scrambling!

Superb win for @AdrianMeronk. Some solid golf played all week and came up with the right shots when he needed them most, starting to make winning a habit. Well done Adrian
-- Luke Donald (@LukeDonald) May 7, 2023

He became the first Pole to win on the DP World Tour in July last year and his victory in Rome two weeks ago means he's highly likely to be the first Pole to play in a Ryder Cup (in September).

Meronk is on the crest of a wave and there's no reason why he can't ride the momentum and become the first Pole to win a major.

But the beauty of trading on the Betfair Exchange means we only need him to contend to land ourselves a winning bet.

Back 1 u Adrian Meronk @ 460.0459/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

Hot Herbert also underrated

The world number 46, Lucas Herbert, who won the Irish Open 12 months before Meronk, is also too big at over 400.0399/1.

The 27-year-old Aussie is also looking to win back-to-back events having won his third DP World Tour title last month at the ISPS Handa Championship in Japan and he's already won a high-profile event and on the PGA Tour.

Herbert's first victory on the DP World Tour came at the Dubai Desert Classic in 2020, an event won by many a major winner, and he won the Bermuda Championship on the PGA Tour in October 2021.

Lucas Herbert in Japan.jpg

Always long off the tee, Herbert ranked 10th for Driving Accuracy in Japan, as well as inside the top-five for Strokes Gained Off the Tee, Tee 2 Green, and Around the Green, and he ranked ninth for Strokes Gained Putting.

Back 1 u Lucas Herbert @ 480.0479/1
Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

Recommended Bets

Back 2 u Patrick Reed @ 180.0179/1

Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

Back 1 u Adrian Meronk @ 460.0459/1

Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

Back 1 u Lucas Herbert @ 480.0479/1

Place order to lay 10u @ 10.09/1 & 10u @ 2.01/1

STEVE'S 2023 FIND ME A 100 WINNER P/L

Staked: 102 units Returned: 40 units P/L: -62 units

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