US PGA Championship 2023 Each-Way Tips: Give Max respect

American Max Homa
Max Homa can land a first Major

It's the second Major of the year and Dave Tindall has four bets for this week's action at Oak Hill Country Club in New York...

  • 30/1 World No.6 Max Homa looks ready for a big Major

  • 40/1 Tyrrell Hatton has top fives on his last two starts

  • 100/1 Gary Woodland has form and Major pedigree

  • 125/1 Harris English plays tough courses well


  • Main Bet: Max Homa each-way (10 places) @ 30/1

    When noting that Shaun Micheel (2003) and Jason Dufner (2013) won the two previous US PGA Championships at Oak Hill Country Club in Pittsford, New York, it's easy to reason that this could be a week for the short and steady hitters.

    Think again. Oak Hill, orginally a Donald Ross design, has undergone a serious renovation since Dufner hoisted the massive Wanamaker trophy 10 years ago.

    Andrew Green's revamp involved removing 600 trees and as well as extra space there's extra length. This week the players will face a 7,400-yard par 70 and the pivot from short course to long course will likely also be determined by the weather.

    For many years, a US PGA in the mind's eye was played in the sticky heat of August on a course in the southern States. The ball would fly.

    Now we're facing coolish temperatures in the north east of the country. That 7,400 yards will feel even longer.

    I took Driving Distance into account in my 10-year trends preview and I'd be a little antsy about tipping a player below the Tour Average of 298.3 this week although it's not a complete deal breaker.

    One surprise in my trends given that they often favour players with strong Major pedigrees was the high placing of Max Homa.

    Homa finished in the top six whereas at the time of writing there are 17 players above him in the betting this week.

    Americans have won the last seven editions of the US PGA which helped him but he also ticked many other boxes. Homa is World No.6, has a win this season, was eighth at Wells Fargo on his latest start (eight of the last 10 US PGA winners had posted a top 20 last time out), is a relative newbie in this event (eight of the last 10 winners had played between zero and five) while he ranked a healthy-enough 72nd in Driving Distance (302.2 yards).

    Nine of the last 10 US PGA winners had also managed a previous top 20 in the event and even though there's not a trace of top 10 yellow in the Majors box on his wikipedia page, Homa did deliver a tied 13th (10th after 54 holes) in the 2022 US PGA at Southern Hills.

    True, there's no getting away from the fact that Homa has precisely zero top 10s in his 14 Majors but let's look a little closer at those numbers.

    In the first eight, he missed seven cuts; that's pretty woeful. But now he's made the weekend (actually the top 48) in five of the last six and the best of those (tied 13th) came in this event.

    The other case for the defence when being told 'Homa's no good in Majors' is his record on elite courses. He's won at Riviera, Torrey Pines and Quail Hollow, all venues that have hosted Majors.

    Homa landed a second Wells Fargo (2022) at Potomac in Maryland which gives him a win in the north east of America, the part of the United States we're in this week.

    Also check out Homa's winning scores in those triumphs in the Wells Fargo (twice), Genesis and Farmers Insurance: -15, -12, -8, -13. No birdie-fests there. They were all won in tough, Major-like conditions.

    Finally, just check out his stats this season: 9th Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th SG: Putting, 7th Tee To Green, 26th Around The Green. Drilling down further he's 3rd for Approaches from 200-225 yards which bodes well for taking on Oak Hill.

    Jumping sports, last month Belgian snooker player Luca Brecel won the World Championship despite having lost in the first round in all five of his previous five visits. But when it clicked, it really clicked.

    Like Brecel, Homa has no scar tissue in Majors, no sit-bolt-upright-at-night memories of making a mess coming down the stretch when in the thick of contention.

    Perhaps when he puts himself in position for the first time, that mental freedom will work the way it did for Brecel.

    If all the above is waffle, I'll just distill the argument down to this. Homa is the World No.6 and he's 30/1. Get on.

    Back Max Homa each-way (10 places) @

    30/1

    Next Best: Tyrrell Hatton each-way (10 places) @ 40/1

    In terms of finding the winner of a Major, it's very unusual that they won't be there in plain sight as a member of the world's top 20.

    Tyrrell Hatton is 17th in the rankings and heads to Oak Hill showing excellent form via tied third at the Wells Fargo and tied fifth in the Byron Nelson over the last fortnight.

    That followed a three-week break after he'd posted tied 19th at Hilton Head, a week on from tied 34th at Augusta, his second best finish at the US Masters in seven attempts.

    The good stuff doesn't stop there. Hatton was sixth in Phoenix, fourth at Bay Hill and runner-up in The Players Championship. After all that, it's hard to fathom why he isn't further up the betting.

    As for Hatton in the Majors, he hasn't set the world on fire yet but his five top 10s includes two in this event while he was also tied 13th at Southern Hills last year.

    But interestingly, all five have some relevance. Two were in Opens to remind us that he can thrive when temperatures are low/mild.

    Two also came in the north east of America, a tied sixth at Shinnecock in the 2018 US Open and a tied 10th in this event at Baltusrol in New Jersey that same year.

    Hatton just missed a Majors top 10 last year when tied 13th in the US PGA and tied 11th in the Open Championship so, overall, he's got a decent record at this level.

    In terms of his stats this season, he ranks 54th in Driving Distance (one place above Tony Finau), is 6th Off The Tee, 11th on Approach and 25th in Putting. Short game? 22nd in Scrambling, 57th Around The Green (he's been in the top six in that category in his last two starts) and 46th in Sand Saves (a metric in which Scottie Scheffler ranks 201st!).

    It's easy to put too much emphasis on Hatton beating himself up so let's remind ourselves that he's a six-time DP World Tour winner, won the Arnold Palmer Invitational on an ultra-tough Bay Hill with 4-under and, as mentioned, has a raft of world-class finishes under his belt this season.

    Closing 65-64 on the weekend at the Byron Nelson will have done his mindset plenty of good and I'm happy to take the 40/1 with 10 places.

    Back Tyrrell Hatton each-way (10 places) @

    40/1

    Outsider 1: Gary Woodland each-way (10 places) @ 100/1

    At the front of the market, I prefer Rory McIlroy to Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler although all three must have a big chance.

    I also came close to picking Xander Schauffele and Tony Finau.

    But I'll end with a couple of outsiders given that we have each-way markets for both 12 and 10 places as well as the usual eight.

    First up is Gary Woodland, already a Major winner of course following his success in the 2019 US Open at Pebble Beach.

    Woodland has also made the top 15 in the last two Majors held on American soil - tied 10th in the 2022 US Open at Brookline and tied 14th in last month's Masters. Notably, the latter was his best finish in 12 starts at Augusta.

    At eighth in Driving Distance he's a massive hitter while rankings of 10th for both Off The Tee and Approach highlight his superb long game.

    The putter can come and often go but he was in the top 20 for for SG: Putting at both Augusta and Hilton Head while he's had positive Around The Green figures in his last two starts.

    Woodland was 14th at Wells Fargo last time out while he can bring some regional form to the table too via a tied eighth in the 2019 US PGA at Bethpage Black. He's also a past runner-up at Liberty National in New Jersey.

    Back Gary Woodland each way (10 places) @

    100/1

    Outsider 2: Harris English each-way (12 places) @ 125/1

    My second longshot is Harris English, who knows a thing or too about playing well on tough courses having finished fourth and third in back-to-back US Opens.

    The first of those was at Winged Foot which puts a tick in the regional form box and, as was the case with Woodland, he played all four rounds at Oak Hill in the 2013 US PGA.

    Looking at this season, English struggled at first on the West Coast before concluding with a top 12 at Riviera and two starts later he was runner-up in the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

    He's now made his last five cuts and the last two were tied 13th in the Zurich Classic pairs event and an eyecatching third place in the Wells Fargo Championship.

    Speaking there, English said: "I feel like I'm hitting my irons really well" and "The putter's finally started to feel better".

    The stats certainly back that up as he ranked 2nd for SG: Approach and gained nearly five strokes on the greens (11th SGP). Earlier in the season he was ranked 1st in Putting at Bay Hill and 2nd at Riviera.

    He's a little on the short side with the driver (127th at 295.5 yards) but English's record on tough (and long) courses suggests he can challenge and certainly run into a place at 125/1 (12 places).

    Back Harris English each way (12 places) @

    125/1

Staked: £820
Returned: £338.16
P/L: -£481.84

Previous:
2021/2022 P/L: -£315.35
2020/2021 P/L: +£1475.87
2019/2020 P/L: +£13.83
2018/2019 P/L: -£338.25
2017/2018 P/L: +£362.84
2016/2017 P/L: +£1179.89

New customers can get £20 in free bets!

New customers can earn £20 in free bets when they place a £5 bet on the Sportsbook after signing up. T&Cs apply.

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.

Discover the latest articles