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Ludvig Aberg has already shone in the Majors and can thrive again
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Joaquin Niemann can bank a second straight Top 10 at this level
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Read Dave Tindall's 10-year trends piece here
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Scottie Scheffler - World No.1 seeks back-to-back Majors
Some numbers. Scheffler has won three of the last 14 Majors and made the top 10 in 10 of those. Six were actually top 5s including second in the 2022 US Open and third in the 2023 edition.
It's reflected in the market and the World No.1 is odds-on at 1.9420/21 to add another Top 5 here. After three wins and a fourth in his last four starts, including victory in last month's US PGA, it's justified.
Scheffler did actually play in the 2016 US Open at Oakmont as an amateur. A missed cut doesn't tell the whole story though as a 69 put him seventh after day one before he ran into trouble on Friday. An awful lot has changed since!
Last four events: 1-4-1-1
US Open form: 41-3-2-7-MC-27-MC
Oakmont form: MC
Last 50 starts - Win: 24%, Top 5: 64%, Top 10: 78%
Bryson DeChambeau - Defending champion seeks hat-trick
While Scheffler is seeking a first US Open, DeChambeau already has two in the bag. He roared to a six-shot win at Winged Foot in 2020 before adding a second in dramatic style at Pinehurst No.2 last year after producing a brilliant up-and-down to cash in on late mistakes from Rory McIlroy.
DeChambeau's next best finish in a US Open actually came here at Oakmont in 2016 when he finished 15th shortly after turning pro. That backs up the idea that his elite driving and strong putting makes him a great course fit.
In terms of current form, DeChambeau has reeled off six straight top fives, that run taking in four LIV events, the Masters (fifth) and the US PGA (runner-up). The in-form American is 3.052/1 for a Top 5 here.
Last four events: 4-2-1-2
US Open form: 1-20-56-26-1-35-25-MC-15-MC
Oakmont form: 15
Last 50 starts - Win: 8%, Top 5: 32%, Top 10: 52%
Jon Rahm - Spaniard could have a big run in him
Jon Rahm looks to be lurking. A man perhaps on the verge of a big breakout after racking up a series of top 10s on LIV this season and building further momentum for this with 14th at Augusta and eighth in the US PGA.
In terms of US Open pedigree, Rahm has plenty. He produced a stunning birdie-birdie finish to win the 2021 US Open at Torrey Pines South and that followed third at Pebble Beach in 2019. The Spaniard has finished 10th and 12th in his last two although he was forced to withdraw ahead of last year's US Open with a foot problem.
Adding another layer is the fact that he was Low Amateur at Oakmont in 2016 when finishing tied 23rd. That was his first ever start in a Majors career that now shows two wins and 12 other top 10s, half of those doubling as top fives.
Last four events: 8-8-7-4
US Open form: 10-12-1-23-3-MC-MC-23
Oakmont form: 23
Last 50 starts - Win: 8%, Top 5: 40%, Top 10: 70%
Rory McIlroy - Masters winner surrounded by doubts
Always honest, McIlroy admitted ahead of last week's Canadian Open that he was struggling a little for motivation after the high of finally winning the US Masters and completing the career Grand Slam. "You have this event in your life that you've worked towards and it happens; sometimes it's hard to find the motivation to get back on the horse and go again."
That feeling of 'now what?' combined with trying to bed in a new driver proved an unsettling combination at TPC Toronto and McIlroy missed the cut by a mile after a Friday 78. Add in lacklustre 47th at the US PGA and there are grounds to be worried.
It's worth reminding ourselves that Rory has won at three elite venues this year - Pebble Beach, Sawgrass and Augusta National - and has finished runner-up in the last two US Opens. In fact he's made the top 10 in each of the last six which is outstanding.
But if his driving isn't sorted, Oakmont will punish him and it's also a little disconcerting to note that he missed the cut here in 2016 (either side of 10th at the US Masters and fifth in the Open).
Last four events: MC-47-7-12
US Open form: 2-2-5-7-8-9-MC-MC-MC-9-23-41-MC-1-MC-10
Oakmont form: MC
Last 50 starts - Win: 16%, Top 5: 44%, Top 10: 56%
Xander Schauffele - US Open specialist searching for his best
Schauffele represents something of a dilemma for punters this year. After winning two Majors in a sensational 2024, he's not clicked into gear in 2025 (a rib injury early on didn't help) and nine starts have produced just a single top 10 (eighth at the US Masters).
But it's hard to ignore his stellar record in this event. His US Open career began with a fifth in 2017 (the year after Oakmont 2016) and his record in this tournament now reads seven top 10s and a 14th in eight appearances.
On those numbers the 3.6553/20 for a Top 10 this week looks tempting but is his game there? We know his mind will be at least as Schauffele relishes the US Open grind.
Last four events: 25-28-11-18
US Open form: 7-10-14-7-5-3-6-5
Oakmont form: -
Last 50 starts - Win: 6%, Top 5: 28%, Top 10: 48%
Ludvig Aberg - Feast or famine for Swede in Majors
Aberg's record in the Majors rather reflects his performances in 2025. There have been moments of excellence but at times he's underwhelmed.
The 25-year-old Swede has finished runner-up and seventh in his two US Masters but missed the cut on both US PGA starts. In his US Open debut last year he was the halfway leader before finishing 12th while an early exit in last summer's Open Championship debut means he's missed the cut in half of his six Major appearances.
Clearly a top-class act, he produced a superb display to win February's Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines (a former US Open venue) before following that with a poor run. But 16th at Memorial and 13th in Canada (2nd SG: Off The Tee) last week suggest it'll be feast rather than famine at Oakmont.
Last four events: 13-16-MC-60
US Open form: 12
Oakmont form: -
Last 50 starts - Win: 6%, Top 5: 24%, Top 10: 36%
Joaquin Niemann - Chilean can build on first Top 10
Despite the evidence - Niemann had never had a top 10 in 23 starts in the Majors - I tipped the Chilean to finally bank one in last month's US PGA. It worked as he finally made the breakthrough, finishing eighth.
Of course, there was also a bunch of evidence that it was bound to happen anytime soon. Niemann had been making cuts in the Majors and was also the LIV Tour's most prolific winner.
He's added to that reputation in his one LIV start since the US PGA, winning last week's tournament in Virginia to make it four victories in his last seven LIV appearances. With his confidence right up, there must be every chance that he follows a first Major top 10 with another. It's 4.131/10 he does so.
Last four events: 1-8-20-1
US Open form: 32-47-31-23-MC
Oakmont form: -
Last 50 starts - Win: 16%, Top 5: 36%, Top 10: 58%
Collin Morikawa - Californian has strong Majors pedigree
Morikawa's tied 50th in the US PGA was a surprise mis-step as his last five starts in Majors had read: 14-16-14-4-3.
He took to them like a duck to water with two wins in his first nine and, overall, he's racked up nine top 10s in his 22 Majors and seven of those were top fives, including the wins.
At the US Open, he had back-to-back top fives at Torrey Pines (2021) and Brookline (2022) and he's followed that with a pair of top 15s in the last two. A gritty customer, he's still a good bet in any Majors side market.
Last four events: 20-50-17-MC
US Open form: 14-14-5-4-MC-35
Oakmont form: -
Last 50 starts - Win: 4%, Top 5: 24%, Top 10: 30%
Shane Lowry - Irishman a past runner-up at Oakmont
Lowry is very much on the radar this week due to his second place at Oakmont back in 2016. There were definite regrets that it wasn't a first after he led by four with a round to play although since then he's joined the Majors club thanks to his thrilling win in 2019 at Royal Portrush, host course again for next month's Open.
Aside from 2016 and ninth at Chambers Bay in 2015, he's also made the top 20 in the last two US Opens although 42-MC in this year's Majors is disappointing.
Lowry has played lots of good golf in 2025 without quite getting the win but 13th in Canada last week was decent prep and finishing runner-up in last month's Truist Championship suggests he can thrive again on his latest visit to Pennsylvania.
Last four events: 13-23-MC-2
US Open form: 19-20-MC-65-43-28-MC-46-2-9-MC-MC
Oakmont form: 2
Last 50 starts - Win: 2%, Top 5: 14%, Top 10: 26%
Tommy Fleetwood - Is this the week for former US Open runner-up?
Fleetwood didn't play at Oakmont in 2016 but the US Open has been his best Major. He has a second, a fourth and a fifth so three of his seven top fives in the Majors have come in this event.
His runner-up finish was at Shinnecock in 2018 when, at the time, he became just the sixth player in history to shoot a 63 in a US Open. That sparkling closing round left him just a shot behind Brooks Koepka.
Seven years on and he's still seeking a first win of any kind on the PGA Tour but he remains a viable option in these markets. Early last month, Fleetwood finished fourth in the Truist Championship at nearby Philly Cricket Club while he posted another top four at Colonial two starts ago.
Last four events: 16-4-41-4
US Open form: 16-5-MC-50-MC-65-2-4-27
Oakmont form: -
Last 50 starts - Win: 0%, Top 5: 28%, Top 10: 34%
Summary
Scottie Scheffler, Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm are all possibles for positive Top 5/10 plays although maybe the best bet in the four market leaders is laying Rory for a Top 10 at 2.9215/8.
But my first bet is to back Ludvig Aberg for a Top 10 finish at 4.131/10.
The Swede's game has come to the boil nicely for the third Major of the year and it's worth remembering that only a modest Sunday cost him a Top 10 on his US Open debut last year. He led after 36 holes and was still in the top five after 54.
Back Ludvig Aberg for Top 10
And after timing it right with Joaquin Niemann last time, I'll play him for another Top 10. He was 4.47/2 to do that in the US PGA at Quail Hollow and is only a fraction shorter here at 4.131/10.
Having finally banked his first, more should follow quickly and yet another victory on the LIV Tour last week sets him up perfectly.
The more ambitious could consider both for Top 5: Aberg at 6.611/2 and Niemann at 7.06/1. You can also pair the two in a Betfair Sportsbook double at 12/113.00.
Back Joaquin Niemann for Top 10
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