US Open 2025: 10-year trends point to...

• Dave sifts through the key stats ahead of Oakmont

• Points system ranks those likeliest to contend

• Will it be a home player again? Read on to find out...

• Get a free bet for every first round birdie your US Open selection scores. T&Cs apply.

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The trends have done well in identifying the winner of the first two majors of 2025 - although, let's be honest, they were fairly obvious to locate.

That said, the numbers certainly helped us decide when to back the top two in the world.

For the US Masters, the trends made Rory McIlroy the joint-top points scorer but marked Scottie Scheffler down due to the poor record of those defending the Green Jacket.

It played out. Rory finally got over the line at Augusta while Scheffler never got in a blow.

For the US PGA, there were two players well clear of the rest when the trends numbers were crunched: Scheffler and Bryson DeChambeau. McIlroy lost points on nationality and age for a major typically won by an American in their 20s.

And, again, it worked out well with Scheffler winning, DeChambeau posting tied second and McIlroy finishing a disappointing 47th after many presumed he would reel off another major straight away.

In short, the message to trends followers is keep the faith!

Right, time to crack on and list the categories involved for the 2025 US Open at Oakmont, host venue in 2007 and 2016 when Angel Cabrera and Dustin Johnson were the respective winners.

I've listed 10 categories: World Ranking, Nationality, Age, US Open Form, US Open Experience, Recent Majors Form, Major Winner, Current Form, Course Fit and Freshness.

The maximum score is 73 and a few weren't far off it. All will be revealed later but, for now, here's a look at each category.

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World Ranking

For new readers to this column, let's use this category to explain the points system again.

The key is frequency - how many times something has happened in the last 10 years of the US Open.

Looking at world rankings, each of the last 10 winners were ranked inside the top 32 in the OWGR. Breaking it down further, nine of those were ranked inside the world's top 25 so anyone inside the world's top 25 gets 9pts. 

As noted in the first two majors this season, this category has been slightly thrown into chaos due to the false rankings of LIV players, whose tour isn't awarded any OWGR points.

Therefore, as is the norm now, I'm going to switch to the world rankings provided by Datagolf.

LIV players who make the top 25 under Datagolf's system are Bryson DeChambeau (3), Jon Rahm (4), Joaquin Niemann (8) and Tyrrell Hatton (17). In the actual world rankings, Rahm is 76th and Niemann 77th. Yes, really.

Ranked 1-25 in Datagolf rankings = 9pts
Ranked 26th or higher = 1pt

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Nationality

Rahm and Matt Fitzpatrick struck a blow for Europe in 2021 and 2022 but the other eight winners in the last 10 years were all home American players.

That means, all American players score 8pts and Euros 2pts.

Bryson DeChambeau added to strong record of US players last year when pipping Rory McIlroy at Pinehurst No.2.

American = 8pts
Europeans = 2pts
Rest of World = 0pts

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Age

The average age for a US Open winner over the last 10 years is 28.1 although we'll round that down to 28 - the exact age of Scottie Scheffler!

That's around seven years younger than the average age of an Open Championship winner across the same period by the way. In other words, if you fancy an older winner of a major, it's best to wait until Royal Portrush next month.

Although five of the last 10 winners of the US Open were in their 20s it seems unfair to award a bunch of points to someone aged 21 but hardly anything to someone who has just turned 30. The latter is far closer to that average age of 28.1.

DeChambeau had just turned 30 last year so benefitted from most points being awarded to those in the sweet spot age-wise. 

So, those up to five years either side of 28 score 8pts while those beyond those parameters score just 2pts. That seems fair given that eight of the last 10 winners were aged between 23 and 33. The exceptions were 21-year-old Jordan Spieth in 2015 and 35-year-old Gary Woodland in 2019.

Aged 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33 = 8pts
Aged 22 or under/34 or over = 2pts

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US Open Form

Last year's winner DeChambeau also won the US Open in 2020 and nine of the previous 10 US Open champions had already posted a top 25 in the event. Five of those had recorded a top 10.

In short, history says it's a big plus to have shown some past form in a US Open.

Top 10 in a US Open = 5pts
11th-25th in a US Open = 4pts
No top 25 in a US Open = 1pts

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US Open Experience

Webb Simpson won the US Open at Olympic Club in 2011 on just his second start in the event. Wyndham Clark was playing in just his third but winning it so soon is rare.

Conversely, it hasn't been a good tournament for those who have played in it many times with none of the last 10 winners having appeared in 10 or more.

DeChambeau was appearing in his ninth last year and, overall, seven of the last 10 US Open winners had played between five and nine times inclusive in the event.

Played from five to nine previous US Opens = 7pts
Played in two to four previous US Opens = 3pts
Played in 10 or more or zero to one US Opens = 0pts

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Recent Majors Form

The idea that major winners don't come out of thin air is one we lean on in all these trends previews.

Before his win in this event last year, DeChambeau had just finished runner-up in the US PGA while wind back a month earlier and he'd placed sixth in the US Masters.

Matt Fitzpatrick is another good example. The 2022 US Open winner had posted fifth in the US PGA and 14th in the Masters so was in the groove majors-wise.

Overall, the numbers are very strong: nine of the last 10 US Open winners had posted a top 10 in at least one of their previous two majors.

Top 10 in one of their last two majors = 9pts
No top 10 in last two majors = 1pt

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Major Winner

Although having a strong run in a recent Major is seen as a big plus, is it an advantage to have won one already?

History says not. Looking at the last 10 US Open winners, only DeChambeau (2024), Brooks Koepka (2018) and Jordan Spieth (2015) already had a major in the bank.

Won a major = 3pts
Not won a major = 7pts

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Current Form

Common sense says you don't go into the US Open searching for your 'A' game. And there is decent evidence that you have to be in good nick to meet the demands of a testing US Open track.

That's shown by eight of the last 10 winners posting a top 12 in one or both of their previous two PGA Tour starts. Looking at the last three years, Bryson had finished runner-up in the US PGA, Clark 12th at Memorial in his final warm-up and Fitzpatrick 10th in Canada.

Dustin Johnson, who won the most recent US Open at Oakmont in 2016, arrived in fine form after fifth (St. Jude) and third (Memorial) in his two other June starts.

Even Angel Cabrera was coming in hot despite his 2007 Oakmont triumph registering as a big surprise. The Argentine had finished fifth in the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth on his previous start and had won on the Latinoamerica tour two tournaments earlier.

Top 12 in one of two previous PGA Tour starts = 8pts
No top 12 in one of two previous starts = 2pts

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Course Fit

With the tournament moving around, previous course form is limited (2007 and 2016). But there are certainly some trends that emerge when looking back at the last 10 years and they should apply again at Oakmont.

It's fair to say that a US Open winner needs to be a good driver and a look down the list of recent winners will produce plenty of nods and 'yeps'.

Heading to Oakmont showing good form with the big stick is definitely a plus and, looking at the stats, no less than nine of the last 10 US Open winners had ranked in the top 16 for SG: Off The Tee in one of their previous two starts

LIV don't provide that stat which is a problem. The best we can do is rate them in that category from their performances in the US PGA. To be fair, this week's LIV event in Houston will be their only outing since then so the US PGA counts as one of their last two starts.

DeChambeau added to this stat 12 months ago as he'd been 2nd for Off The Tee in the US PGA before ranking 4th in that category when winning at Pinehurst.

Top 16 for SG: Off The Tee in one of last two starts = 9pts
No top 16 for SG: Off The Tee in one of last two starts = 1pts

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Freshness

Is it a smart idea to play the week before what many regard as the most gruelling tournament of the season?

Some might say it's best to stay tournament sharp by teeing it up; others may argue it's better to go in fresh. In addition, having the week off would allow players to get to the tournament site earlier which is especially helpful if it's an unfamiliar course as it is to the vast majority this year.

The evidence is mixed but seven of the last 10 winners had at least one week off in the previous fortnight ahead of their US Open win. The stat is good for LIV players but not so for those playing both Memorial and Canada in the build-up such as Tommy Fleetwood and Shane Lowry.

Had at least a week off in one of the previous two = 7pts
Played both the previous two events = 3pts

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And that's all 10 categories complete. So...

The Top Points Scorers

The scores are in and - drumroll - these are the top nine:

73 Scottie Scheffler
71 Harris English
67 Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele
66 Bryson DeChambeau
65 Ben Griffin
62 Joaquin Niemann
61 Patrick Cantlay, Sam Burns 

This may look an underwhelming result on first glance but, actually, it's one of the more interesting trends outcomes.

Scheffler hasn't been awarded a bundle of points for winning lots of tournaments recently.

Doing that and driving it well has helped but he's also the ideal profile in terms of world ranking, age, nationality and experience.

But below Scheffler, the 11/43.75 favourite, it gets really surprising.

Harris English in second!

Had he been a couple of years younger he'd actually have scored maximum points (77) and beaten Scheffler.

English picks up points across the board but it just so happens that he has a third, a fourth and an eighth in the last five US Opens.

Add in three top 25s in his last four Masters and joint-second in last month's US PGA and he plays his home majors very well.  

He's currently 100/1101.00 on the Sportsbook (1/5 Odds, 6 Places). That's definitely worth a bet.

In-form Ben Griffin is the other eyepopping name in the top six and is also worth an each-way punt.

Again, this isn't just because he has a win and a second in his last two starts although it's that form which has thrust him into the top 15 of the Datagolf World Rankings (he's also 15th in the actual OWGR).

As a 29-year-old American he scores well but Griffin bumps his score up with an eighth in the US PGA last month and some strong recent driving.

To conclude, those backing Scheffler perhaps now have further evidence to do so while the trends also highlight a couple of big-priced in-form Americans seeking a first major.

Also note that Joaquin Niemann has appeared high up the trends for the first time. That's helped by him finally posting a top 10 in a major when eighth in the US PGA.

Niemann could be interesting at 40/141.00.

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