Open Championship 2025: 10-year trends point to...

• Our resident golf data guru Dave sifts through the key stats 

• Points system ranks those likeliest to contend at Royal Portrush

• Will it be an American holding the Claret Jug again?

• Or can a European emulate recent winners like Lowry?

• Read on to find out...

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Xander Schauffele ranked a clear second in last year's Open trends.

And they proved a good guide as the American held firm to win his first Claret Jug, scoring a two-shot victory at Royal Troon with 9-under.

This year's trends previews have also gone pretty well.

For the US Masters, the trends made Rory McIlroy the joint-top points scorer to finally win at Augusta and he got over the line.

For the US PGA, Scottie Scheffler and Bryson DeChambeau were well clear of the rest when the trends numbers were crunched.

They proved on the money with Scheffler winning and DeChambeau finishing tied second

Okay, J.J. Spaun proved something of a trends buster when winning the US Open at Oakmont but that will happen from time to time. Let's not lose the faith.

For this year's Open at Royal Portrush, also the venue in 2019, I've listed nine categories: World Ranking, Nationality, Age, Open Form, Winning Form, Recent Majors Form, Majors Excellence, Current Form and Week Before.

Let's enjoy this walk through the last 10 years of Open history and see which players come out as the best fit for Portrush.

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World Ranking

For new readers to this column, let's use this category to explain the points system again.

The key is frequency - how many times something has happened in the last 10 editions of the Open. We need to say editions rather than years given that the pandemic meant no Open was played in 2020.

Looking at world rankings, six of the last 10 winners were sat inside the top 10 in the OWGR. Therefore, those in that category this year score 6pts.

But it hasn't been a monopoly: Harman was 26th when winning at Hoylake in 2023, Shane Lowry 33rd at Royal Portrush in 2019, Zach Johnson 25th at St Andrews in 2015 and Francesco Molinari 15th at Carnoustie in 2018 so players currently ranked 11th to 35th score 4pts. Anyone outside the top 35 gets zero points.

As is the norm now, I'm going to switch to the world rankings provided by Datagolf as they take into account performances on the LIV Tour.

LIV players who make the top 35 under Datagolf's system are Jon Rahm (2), Bryson DeChambeau (3), Tyrrell Hatton (9), Joaquin Niemann (10) and Patrick Reed (32). In the actual world rankings, Niemann is 88th!

Ranked in Datagolf's top 10 = 6pts
Ranked 11th to 35th by Datagolf = 4pts
Ranked over 35th by Datagolf = 0pts

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Nationality

Americans have won the last two Opens - Xander Schauffele at Troon and Brian Harman at Hoylake - but they haven't had it all their own way recently despite enjoying periods of dominance in this event.

They've won five of the last 10 (so score 5pts) but Europeans have lifted the Claret Jug four times in the study period.

Cam Smith's win at St Andrews in 2022 stops a full American/Euro sweep. 

American = 5pts
Europeans = 4pts
Internationals = 1pts

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Age

Players in their 20s or at least just sneaking into a third decade have dominated the other three majors over the last 10 years.

But using the age categories below, you'll see that this is the best event for those a little longer in the tooth which makes sense given that this is far removed from a bog standard PGA Tour event dominated by younger big hitters. Craft and guile are needed on the links.

Yes, 35 or over is the most represented age bracket in the last 10 editions with four (Zach Johnson, Henrik Stenson, Francesco Molinari and Brian Harman). Rory is now 36 by the way.

Aged 35 or over = 4pts
Aged up to 25 = 3pts
Aged between 26 and 34 = 3pts

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Open Form

Two years ago, Brian Harman seemed a surprise winner but he'd finished sixth at St Andrews just 12 months earlier.

Meanwhile, 2024 champion Xander Schauffele was a previous Open runner-up.

Overall, eight of the last 10 Open winners had already posted a top 10 in the event. That's a strong trend.

Of the two that hadn't, Cam Smith's previous best was 20th while Collin Morikawa was making his Open debut.

Top 10 in an Open = 8pts
11th-20th in an Open = 1pt
Debut = 1pt

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Winning Form

Having a win earlier in the season has been common to eight of the last 10 Open champions so that's another strong trend. 

Schauffele added to it last year as he'd won the US PGA just five starts earlier.

Of the two exceptions, Zach Johnson had managed a third before his win on the Old Course in 2015 while Harman had a second place to his name before beating the field at Hoylake.

Won this season = 8pts
Posted a second or third this season = 2pts

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Recent Majors Form

As we've noted in all these trends previews, winners at this level almost always don't come out of thin air unless they're called J.J. Spaun.

Typically an Open champion has usually advertised his credentials with a good performance in a recent major.

Despite some slightly surprise winners of the Claret Jug, eight of the last 10 had posted a top 20 in one of their previous two majors so it's a very strong pointer.

Top 20 in one of their last two majors = 8pts
Posted a 21st-25th in last two majors = 2pts

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Major Excellence

Although having a good run in a recent major is seen as a big plus, is it an advantage to have won one already? It's worth asking the question but no trend exists. Five of the last 10 had already won one and five hadn't.

But if we widen the lens to near misses, we scoop up everyone as all of the last 10 Open winners had already posted a top two in a major during their careers.

For those who make you question the stat, let's deal with any furrowed brows: Harman was a former US Open runner-up while Molinari had previously finished second in the US PGA. 

Top two in a major = 10pts
No top two in a major = 0pts

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Current Form

Although links golf can be regarded as a unique test that sees the specialists come to the fore whatever their current form, the numbers say it's important to have had a good recent finish - even on a very different style of course.

Again Harman is a good example to hold up. Heading to Hoylake he had form figures of 12-9-2.

Overall, nine of the last 10 Open champions had posted at least one top 10 in one of their three previous starts.

The conclusion seems to be, if you're in form, that translates well to an Open course even if it is a completely different test on paper.

The odd man out, surprisingly, was McIlroy. His best was a 14th before winning at Hoylake in 2014.

Top 10 in one of three previous starts = 9pts
Finish of 11th-15th in one of three previous starts = 1pt

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Week Before

Is it a smart idea to play the week before and, if so, where?

It makes sense that playing some links golf ahead of the Open would be a smart ploy but we've seen fairly recent Open winners lift the Claret Jug a week after contesting the John Deere Classic, despite that course being nothing like a links track.

With the co-sanctioned Scottish Open now occupying the pre-Open slot, it's become more and more likely that the Claret Jug winner will have warmed up on the links.

Overall, eight of the last 10 Open winners had teed it up the week before.

Played previous week = 8pts
Had previous week off = 2pts

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And that's all 9 categories complete. So...

The Top Points Scorers

The scores are in and - drumroll - these are the leading points scorers:

65 Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau
62 Viktor Hovland
58 Jon Rahm
57 Keegan Bradley, Harris English, Patrick Reed
56 Robert MacIntyre, Russell Henley 
54 Tyrrell Hatton, Sepp Straka
53 Collin Morikawa

Okay, probably not the result I was hoping for in terms of someone unusual popping up.

Scrambling, so often key in Opens, was a pretty important stat at Royal Portrush in 2019 so could I have used that to help get a different result?

No. DeChambeau is ranked 1st for Scrambling on LIV while on the PGA Tour Scheffler is 3rd and McIlroy 25th. All would have scored maximum points had that been used in a Course Fit category.

At current prices (seven days before they tee off at Portrush), it's 4/15.00 Scottie Scheffler, 15/28.50 Rory McIlroy and 20/121.00 Bryson DeChambeau.

It's easy to think of them as the top three players in golf but how about their links skills?

Well, let's tweak the Open Form category a little. If we note that six of the last 10 Open winners had previously enjoyed a top six in the event, while three others had finished 7th to 9th, we then get some separation.

McIlroy is an Open winner with seven top sixes in the tournament. Scheffler, meanwhile, has a best of seventh while DeChambeau's highest finish is eighth. Rory is clearly the Open specialist while the two Americans still have something to prove.

Therefore, after a tie-break, your trends winner is Rory McIlroy. What a story it would be if he could add an Open victory in front of his home crowd to his stunning Masters win from April.

I'll also play Viktor Hovland, who is alone in fourth in the rankings and well clear of fifth.

Hovland was fourth at St Andrews in 2022 and 12th and 13th in the Opens either side.

He's good at majors, finishing tied seventh in the 2023 Masters, tied second in the 2023 US PGA, solo third in the 2024 US PGA and solo third in last month's US Open.

The Norwegian, a winner at the Valspar in March, is 25s on the Sportsbook but currently much bigger on the exchange.

A few more notes...

Russell Henley would have finished top (by a point) had he had a previous top two in a major. He hasn't.

American trio Keegan Bradley, Harris English and Patrick Reed all have victories this season and are joint sixth in the trends rankings. 

Reed (4th for Scrambling on LIV) is interesting at a three-figure price on the exchange as he was 10th at Portrush in 2019 (his best Open finish). He's also had a 12th and a 20th in this event.

English's only top 40 in nine Open starts is 15th at Muirfield 12 years ago.

Bradley has missed his last five Open cuts! He did though post three top 20s in four visits between 2013 and 2016.

Finally, Jon Rahm could get to 64pts - one back from the trio at the top on 65 - with a win on the LIV Tour this week. Don't rule it out given that that tournament is on home Spanish turf at Valderrama.

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