Golf Tips: Bets for Farmers Insurance Open and Dubai Desert Classic

• Steve Rawlings' backs another Rahm raid

• It's Day each-way for Dave Tindall

• Swede tipped at 169/1 to go well in desert

• Matt Cooper backs Lee to bounce back

• MacIntyre backed at 40/1 for first round leader

• Course info, player form stats and ones to watch

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Farmers Insurance Open: Hot favourite Rahm looking for his fourth win in five

Steve Rawlings says: "Last year's winner, Luke List, ranked 12th for Driving Distance and four of the 10 winners before him ranked first or second for DD but the two winners before List, Patrick Reed and Marc Leishman, ranked only 51st and 34th for DD so a lack of length can be overcome.

"I'd slightly favour DD over Driving Accuracy though. The first five home 12 months ago ranked 44, 62, 27, 29 & 23 for DA and Leishman only ranked 58th when winning three years ago.

"Jon Rahm ranked number one for Strokes Gained off the Tee six years ago and the playoff protagonists last year ranked fifth and first but the two winners before List ranked 49th and 31st for that stat so we shouldn't get too hung up on the driving metrics...

"Having backed Jon Rahm in Dubai, Hawaii and again last week when he's won, I've left a few pounds on the table at 5.8 but I'm not sure I'd be backing him if I hadn't been following him over the last few months.

"He's putting a Tiger Woods like run together and I suspect it will end sooner rather than later but I'm happy to chance him once again at his favourite track."

Steve's bet: Back Jon Rahm @ 5.85/1

Farmers Insurance Open Each-Way Tips: Day can challenge for treble

Dave tindall says: "The Aussie is a two-time winner of this event (2015 and 2018) but his strong course record doesn't end there.

"Day was runner-up in 2014 after a ninth in 2013, made the top five when defending in 2019 and added a third place last year when his form was more patchy than it is now.

"The former World No.1 is showing consistency again, a tied 18th at The American Express last week representing a fifth finish of 21st or better in his last six events.

"Strong tee-to-green play rather than flashy putting is the bedrock of those good finishes and in four of the five where Strokes Gained was in operation, Day ranked in the top 20 for TTG."

Dave's bet: Back Jason Day each-way @ 29.028/1

Farmers Insurance Open 2023: Course and current form stats

Andy Swales says: "Torrey Pines, situated around 16 miles north of downtown San Diego, is one of golf's most iconic locations.

"Both courses have undergone major renovations during the past decade, with the South being lengthened to more than 7,650 yards ahead of staging the 2021 US Open.

"A number of its greens were relocated closer to hazards, while every putting surface was re-contoured to provide multiple pin positions. The South's undulating greens are smaller than their counterparts on the North Course which was upgraded by the late Tom Weiskopf seven years ago...

"Tony Finau, the American, is looking in great shape, if you examine a number of Strokes Gained categories on the PGA Tour this season. He's 11th for Approach the Green, 5th in Putting, 8th Tee-to-Green, and 2nd for Total. He has a solid record at Torrey and his last four PGA Tour starts read: Won-7th-7th-16th."

Andy's Player to Watch: Tony Finau @ 15.014/1

Dubai Desert Classic: Could hot putting and Portuguese form be the key to success?

Steve Rawlings says: "Although the 2021 winner, Paul Casey, only ranked 24th for Driving Distance, length off the tee has been key for years and big hitters tend to shine.

"Last year's winner, Victor Hovland, ranked 13th for DD, with Rory McIlroy in third ranking first, and the 2020 winner, Lucas Herbert, ranked ninth for DD with Dean Burmester and Adri Arnaus, who finished tied for third, ranking first and sixth for DD.

"Monstrously long, Bryson DeChambeau, only ranked a curiously shot 26th for DD when he won here four years ago but the six winners before him ranked 14th, fourth, 10th, first, fifth and fourth...

"A second placed finish at the Portugal Masters in 2021 is a strong pointer for Denmark's Nicolai Hojgaard who will defend his Ras Al Khaimah Championship title next week and I thought he was a decent price at 65.0 after back-to-back top-tens on the DP World Tour.

"Hojgaard missed the cut on debut here 12 months ago but he's a very in-and-out performer so that doesn't bother me at all given the venue looks perfect for his aggressive style."

Steve's bet: Back Nicolai Hojgaard @ 65.064/1

Dubai Desert Classic Each-Way Tips: Take Min, Herbert & Valimaki

Matt Cooper says: "It would be entirely understandable if Min Woo Lee had tossed and turned in bed a bit since missing a tiddler on the penultimate green last week. Had he holed it, and still made birdie at the last, he'd have forced a play off.

"But I also sense that the brother of LPGA star Minjee is unlikely to be tortured by what ifs. He's on the rise, he's contending more or less every time he tees it up, he's confident, he'll be expecting more opportunities (it is golfers who rarely sniff wins who mostly dwell unhealthily on the missed chances).

"Lee has finished in the top four in five of his last seven starts a run that includes third at the Open de Espana, third at the Andalucia Masters, fourth in the Australian PGA, third at the Australian Open and second last week."

Matt's bet: Min Woo Lee 1pt each-way @ 23.022/1

Dubai Desert Classic First-Round Leader Tips: Make it MacIntyre

Dave Tindall says: "Robert MacIntyre should be nicely up to speed after contesting the Hero Cup team event and taking tied 20th at Yas Links in the last two weeks.

"The Scot ranked 1st for Strokes Gained: Off The Tee in the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship and recent winners here in Dubai have placed highly in that category.

Third for SG: Tee To Green at Yas Links, the only weak point was his putting but that can come and go and he can certainly get the flatstick hot. MacIntyre missed the cut last year but on his first two visits he finished eighth on debut in 2020 and third in 2021.

"He carded three 67s across those two events and an opening 5-under lap in 2021 put him in the top five after 18 holes."

Dave's bet: Back Robert MacIntyre each-way @ 41.040/1

Find Me a 100 Winner: Hot putting Swede can contend again

Steve Rawlings says: "Sebastian Soderberg, the 32-year-old Swede, has drifted all the way out to 170.0 and that looks huge given how strongly he contended last week in Abu Dhabi.

"Matched at a low of 3.5 on Sunday, Soderberg pushed the eventual winner, Victor Perez, throughout Sunday around Yas Links (a course almost certain to correlate very well with the Emirates in the fullness of time) before eventually settling for a tie for second.

"Having putted nicely at the Nedbank Challenge around the Gary Player Country Club (a course that correlates brilliantly with this one) to finish fifth in November, Soderberg ranked first for Putting Average and fourth for Strokes Gained Putting again last week and a repeat of that will see him contend again.

"The Swede's course form figures read an ordinary MC-70-MC-73 but that fifth in South Africa, and his seventh at the Portugal Masters in 2017, suggest there's no reason why he shouldn't perform well here."

Steve's bet: Back 2u Sebastian Soderberg @ 170.0169/1

Dubai Desert Classic 2023: Course and form stats

Andy Swales says: "Water comes into play on eight holes, while the greens are reasonably tame and uncomplicated. However, the greens did undergo a major renovation two years ago. Director of Agronomy at Emirates Golf Club, Matthew Perry, told Dubaigolf.com: 'We re-created the original size of all 18 greens, as designed by Karl Litten in the 1980s.

"'This has resulted in an overall 33% increase in green size, while bringing many more greenside bunkers into play. On the first hole, the size of the putting surface increased by as much as 67%.

"'The greens have been rebuilt using layers of drainage, gravel and sand. This classic course has been brought into the 21st century and it now measures 7,400 yards from the back tees.'

"Tyrrell Hatton has two previous podium finishes at Emirates. The Englishman made a slow start in Abu Dhabi last week but posted a closing 65 to finish tied-seventh."

Andy's Player to Watch: Tyrrell Hatton @ 14.013/1