Farmers Insurance Open: Hot favourite, Rahm, looking for his fourth win in five

• Red-hot Rahm the man to beat at favourite venue

• Strong scrambling and putting the keys to success

• Read my Dubai Desert Classic preview here

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Tournament History

Originally called the San Diego Open and first staged in 1952, the Farmers Insurance Open is now in its 71st year. It's been played at Torrey Pines since 1968.

The event is played over two courses, with the entire field playing both the North and South Courses over the first two days before the weekend play is staged entirely on the tougher, longer, South Course.

The South Course was also the venue for the 2021 US Open, won by the 2017 Farmers Insurance Open winner, Jon Rahm, who is in search of his fourth win in five starts after last week's success at the American Express.

The Farmers Insurance Open starts on Wednesday this week so get your bets on nice and early.

Venue

Torrey Pines, La Jolla, California.

North Course, par 72, 7,258 yards, stroke average in 2022 - 68.77
South Course, par 72, 7,258 yards, stroke average in 2022 - 72.35

Both courses were designed by Billy Bell Jr. and were opened in 1957.

The South Course was extensively revamped in 2001, by Rees Jones; after it had been awarded the 2008 US Open, and it was tweaked again ahead of last year's renewal.

This piece here details the renovation staged before the 2021 edition.

The North Course had always differed quite significantly to the South but it underwent a renovation of its own, by Tom Weiskopf, prior to the 2017 renewal and the scoring differential between the two narrowed considerably after that.

In the two renewals prior to the North Course overhaul, there was a 3.57 strokes differential in the bad weather of 2016 and a difference of 3.29 in 2015 but for the first four years after the changes the differential was less than two strokes.

The North Course has consistently averaged less than the South and that differential is starting to widen again.

Differential between the North and South Courses since the North's renovation
2017 - 1.49
2018 - 1.5
2019 - 1.89
2020 - 1.96
2021 - 3.21 (US Open year)
2022 - 3.58

Weather Forecast

TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 17:30 on Wednesday

Last Seven Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2022 - Luke List -15 95.094/1 (playoff)
2021 - Patrick Reed -14 36.035/1
2020 - Marc Leishman -15 80.079/1
2019 - Justin Rose -21 19.018/1
2018 - Jason Day -10 26.025/1 (playoff)
2017 - Jon Rahm -13 55.054/1
2016 - Brandt Snedeker -6 19.018/1

What Will it Take to Win the Farmers Insurance Open?

Other than putting, nothing really jumps out statistically here and, unsurprisingly for a championship course, most winners rank fairly-highly in all or almost all other categories.

The South Course is long so distance off the tee is advantageous.

Last year's winner, Luke List, ranked 12th for Driving Distance and four of the 10 winners before him ranked first or second for DD but the two winners before List, Patrick Reed and Marc Leishman, ranked only 51st and 34th for DD so a lack of length can be overcome.

I'd slightly favour DD over Driving Accuracy though. The first five home 12 months ago ranked 44, 62, 27, 29 & 23 for DA and Leishman only ranked 58th when winning three years ago.

Jon Rahm ranked number one for Strokes Gained off the Tee six years ago and the playoff protagonists last year ranked fifth and first but the two winners before List ranked 49th and 31st for that stat so we shouldn't get too hung up on the driving metrics.

We haven't seen any winner top the Greens In Regulation stats since Bubba Watson in 2011 and Reed ranked a remarkable 63rd two years ago (as well as only 39th for Strokes Gained on Approach) but 16th was the worst any of the previous six victors ranked for GIR and three of the four winners before Reed ranked inside the top-five for SGA.

List ranked 11th for GIR and fourth for SGA and the runner-up, Will Zalatoris, ranked second and first.

The last two winners have ranked sixth for Scrambling and although the 2019 winner, Justin Rose, had poor Scrambling figures, it's usually a key stat.

When Jason Day won the title for the first time eight years ago, his Putting Average ranking was only 33rd and List only ranked 28th last year but Reed ranked number one in 2021, five of the last seven winners have ranked fourth or better, and nine of the last 11 winners have ranked inside the top-ten for Putting Average.

A magical touch on and around the greens is usually the key to success at Torrey Pines.

Is There an Angle In?

Jon Rahm went against the grain six years ago as he was the first debutant to win at Torrey Pines since the event moved there 50 years previous and even if we disregard seven-time winner, Tiger Woods, course form has been a huge indicator.

Although a big outsider, List had finished 12th in 2018 and 10th in 2021, Reed had finished sixth 12 months before he won and the 2020 winner, Leishman, had twice finished runner-up in the event previously.

And they were far from the first to give us an indication that they liked the place...

Scott Stallings hadn't made a cut here before winning eight years ago but he was very much the exception rather than the rule and it's worth noting that he followed up his win with a second 12 months later.

Brandt Snedeker was winning here for a second time when he got lucky with the draw in foul conditions seven years ago and Jason Day has also won the event twice.

He was also ninth in 2013, second in 2014 and third last year.

Justin Rose struggled to get to know the place but he had been fourth and eighth in the two years prior to his 2019 victory.

Ben Crane, Nick Watney and even shock 2004 winner, John Daly, had all finished inside the top-10 in at least one of their previous two tournament appearances.

Despite the 2017 result, think very carefully before backing someone with little or no previous at the track. With the benefit of hindsight, Rahm's victory six years ago makes total sense now.

Glen Abbey, which has hosted many a Canadian Open, provides far and away the strongest course correlation and it's a shame we haven't been there since 2018.

In his only visit there back in 2013, Reed finished ninth, Rahm was runner-up in the Canadian Open in 2016, after Luke List had led at halfway, Jhonattan Vegas, who's won two editions of the Canadian Open at Glen Abbey, finished third here on debut in 2011.

Farmers winners, Jason Day and Bubba Watson, finished one and two in Canada in 2015, and recent Glen Abbey winners, Brandt Snedeker and Tiger Woods are multiple Torrey Pines winners.

Is There an Identikit Winner?

There have been only three winners in the last 30 years that wouldn't be described as absolutely top-class.

At the age of 37, and after years of trying, Luke List was finally getting off the mark for the very first time on the PGA Tour 12 months ago, the 2014 winner, Scott Stallings, was something of an anomaly.

Although a multiple PGA Tour winner, Ben Crane couldn't be described as top class either but every other winner going right the way back into the last century has been straight out of the top drawer and I'd think very carefully about backing a raft of outsiders.

The 2020 winner, Marc Leishman, has won a FedEx Cup playoff event, he's finished inside the top-ten at the US Masters three times, and he's been placed in an Open Championship three times too.

The 2009 champ, Nick Watney, has won a WGC event, a FedEx Cup playoff event and should arguably have won the 2010 USPGA Championship and Snedeker, successful in 2012 and 2016, is a FedEx Cup winner with multiple wins on the PGA Tour and a plethora of high finishes in major championships.

Every other winner dating all the way back to 1996 has won a major championship.

Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2022 - Luke List - T19th - trailing by five 290.0289/1
2021 - Patrick Reed -tied for the lead 4.131/10
2020 - Marc Leishman - T7th - trailing by four 48.047/1
2019 - Justin Rose led by three strokes 1.4840/85
2018 - Jason Day T4th - trailing by three 8.88/1
2017 - Jon Rahm T13th - trailing by three 55.054/1
2016 - Brandt Snedeker T27th - trailing by six 200.0199/1

In-Play Tactics

In contrast to this week's DP World Tour event, the Dubai Desert Classic, where unless the wind blows hard, you need to concentrate on the leaders from very early on, the winners here can overcome a snail-like start.

Reed was always in the van in 2021 and Justin Rose was up with the pace throughout too. He sat second and one back after round one in 2019 and he was never headed after that, but they're the exceptions rather than the rule.

List sat tied for ninth after an impressive opening 67 around the South Course (trailing by four) and he was still only four back at halfway after a 68 around the North Course on Friday, but a 72 on Saturday saw him trailing by five in a tie for 19th after 54 holes.

List was trading at around the 300.0299/1 mark prior to the off on Sunday and he was matched at as high as 450.0449/1 in-running.

Leishman was 17th and six behind at halfway three years ago and he was still four adrift before round four. And he's far from the only winner to overcome a pedestrian beginning to the tournament...

Incredibly, Jason Day sat tied for 113th and fully eight strokes off the lead after the opening round in 2018, following a one-over-par knock around the South Course, and after an opening level-par 72 around the South Course, Rahm sat tied for 77th and seven off the lead after round one five years ago.

The 2016 result was barmy. Snedeker sat seven, eight and six adrift after rounds one, two and three before firing a quite remarkable three-under-par 69 in round four in vile conditions.

That saw him close to within one of the lead and when play was eventually called for the day the leader, and most of the field, returned on Monday to finish off and none of them could post better than Sneds as the wind and rain continued to punish.

Although that was an unusual renewal, weather wise, winning from off the pace here is far from unusual, even in decent conditions.

The draw is tough to work out now. List started on the South Course last year but the three winners before him all started on the North Course.

That might be a three-year blip though as the eight winners before them all started the tournament on the South Course.

It depends how you want to interpret those results, is it only one of the last four winners have started on the South Course? or nine of the last 12 winners have started the week on the South Course?

Reed, two years ago, was the first - first round leader to go on to win since 1996 and Tiger Woods (2008 and 2013) and Rose four years ago, are the only halfway leaders to convert and third round leaders tend to struggle here as a rule.

Like Rose four years ago, Woods was never headed in 2008 and 2013, once he'd hit the front at halfway, and he was also in front after round three in 2003 but other than Reed in 2021, the only other third round leaders to go on to win this century are Phil Mickelson in 2000 and John Daly in 2004, and the latter needed to win a three-man play-off.

The last seven pre-round figures are above but prior to that, Stallings was three back and trading in excess of 30.029/1 nine years ago, Snedeker trailed by seven strokes after 54 holes in 2012 (when Kyle Stanley lost having led after the first three rounds and having been matched in-running at 1.011/100), and Watney had been five back three years earlier.

This is most definitely an event in which to take on the leaders and two men traded at odds-on before getting beat last year.

Rahm hit 1.910/11 and the beaten playoff protagonist, Will Zalatoris, who looked the most likely winner for much of Sunday, was matched at a low of just 1.341/3.

Market Leaders

Since finding his putting touch at Wentworth in September, where he finished runner-up to Shane Lowry in the BMW PGA Championship, Jon Rahm has been in sparkling form, putting up form figures reading 1-4-1-8-1-1.

He's back up to number three in the Official World rankings and he's back at his favourite venue, so he's the very obvious favourite to go in again.

Rahm's form figures here read 1-29-5-2-7-1-3 and it will take a brave layer to take him on.

As highlighted above, he's the only debutant to win the event in more than 50 years and his second victory at Torrey Pines was in the 2021 US Open. He traded at odds-on last year before finishing third and even at odds of around 4/1, it's hard to argue that he's too short, although a strong case can be made for most of the market leaders.

It took Californian, Xander Schauffele, quite some time to show something at Torrey Pines as a pro. His first five visits produce figures reading MC-MC-MC-25-MC which was simply bizarre for the San Diego born superstar, but things changed in dramatic fashion in this event two years ago after a slow start.

Schauffele sat 48^th after round one and 40^th at halfway before he shot 68-69 over the weekend to finish tied for second- ranking second for Scrambling - and he contended strongly here at the US Open a few months later before going on to finish seventh so his tied 34^th was something of a disappointment 12 months ago.

Schauffele signed off last week's American Express with an impressive ten-under-par 62 to finish third so he commands plenty of respect.

Tony Finau has threatened to win here on numerous occasions and with course form figures stretching back to 2015 that read 24-18-4-6-13-6-2-MC-MC he too needs to be respected.

His seventh in the Sentry Tournament of Champions and his 16^th last week are fair efforts and no more given how well he finished 2022 but it would be no surprise to see him contend given his obvious aptitude for the venue and he can put his last two uncharacteristic missed cuts here behind him.

We haven't seen Justin Thomas since he opened up 2023 with a disappointing 25^th in the Sentry TOC and with course form figures reading 10-MC-19-20, he's the only player towards the head of the market I was happy to dismiss readily.

Collin Morikawa has only played this event once previously, finishing 21^st in 2020, but he was fourth in the US Open in 2021 so the South Course suits him but he needs to bounce back after his collapse at the Sentry TOC last time out when he was caught and passed by Rahm having led by six through 54 holes and having been matched at a low of just 1.021/50.

Selections

Having backed Jon Rahm in Dubai, Hawaii and again last week when he's won, I've left a few pounds on the table at 5.85/1 but I'm not sure I'd be backing him if I hadn't been following him over the last few months.

He's putting a Tiger Woods like run together and I suspect it will end sooner rather than later but I'm happy to chance him once again at his favourite track.

I've backed one outsider that I'll detail in the Find Me a 100 Winner piece later and I've also had a very small wager on Max Homa, who I thought was a fair price at 28.027/1 given he's won three of his last six starts in his home state.

His course form figures read only an ordinary MC-MC-MC-9-18-MC-MC but it really should suit him and he caught the eye when third at the Sentry TOC in his only appearance to date this year.

Selections:

Jon Rahm @ 5.85/1

Max Homa @ 28.027/1

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter