Dubai Desert Classic: In form Lee can contend again

• Strong putting the key to success

• Links lovers likely to figure again

• Course clues to be found in Portugal, South Africa and Qatar

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Tournament History

First staged as long ago as 1989, the Dubai Desert Classic was the first event to be staged on the Arabian Peninsula. There was no event in 1991 so this is the 34th edition.

Venue

Emirates Golf Club, Dubai, UAE.

Course Details

Par 72, 7,428 yards
Stroke Index in 2022 - 72.7

Apart from the 1999 and 2000 renewals, the Majlis course, designed by Karl Litten and opened in 1988, has hosted this event since its inception.

The fairways are fairly generous and the rough isn't often brutal.

The front nine ends with three tough holes in four - the sixth, eighth and ninth and it's the stronger of the two nines. It can play up to two strokes harder than the back-nine.

The front nine last year, which has a par of 35, averaged almost a stroke over-par at 35.88 whereas the back nine, which contains three par fives, averaged 36.82 -below its par of 37.

The Majlis is a typically exposed desert track, so the wind is very often a factor and if it gets up, the scoring is much harder than in calm conditions.

As an indication of how different the course plays in the wind, the 2020 winner, Lucas Herbert, won in only nine-under-par (the highest ever tournament aggregate score) but 12 months earlier, Bryson DeChambeau got to -24, which was the event's record low score.

The greens, that are usually set at around 11.5 on the stimpmeter, were completely renovated prior to the off 12 months ago and this is what Mohammed Buamim, the Emirates club's manager, told Gulf News during the renovation.

"It was discovered that the greens, in particular, were not in the condition we would like them to be and therefore decided to have them rebuilt.

"We have also taken this opportunity to return them to their original size and shape, which means that they will get bigger and by that open up more choices for interesting pin positions. I'm confident that it will improve the course significantly."

The new putting surfaces are Bermuda TifEagle and the whole course is laid to Bermuda grass. Water in play on ten holes.

Weather Forecast

TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 4:00 on Thursday.

Last Seven Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices

2022 - Victor Hovland -12 (playoff) 11.010/1
2021 - Paul Casey -17 25.024/1
2020 - Lucas Herbert -9 230.0229/1 (playoff)
2019 - Bryson DeChambeau -24 11.010/1
2018 - Li Haotong -23 180.0179/1
2017 - Sergio Garcia -19 22.021/1
2016 - Danny Willett -19 48.047/1

What Will it Take to Win the Dubai Desert Classic?

Although the 2021 winner, Paul Casey, only ranked 24th for Driving Distance, length off the tee has been key for years and big hitters tend to shine.

Last year's winner, Victor Hovland, ranked 13th for DD, with Rory McIlroy in third ranking first, and the 2020 winner, Lucas Herbert, ranked ninth for DD with Dean Burmester and Adri Arnaus, who finished tied for third, ranking first and sixth for DD.

Monstrously long, Bryson DeChambeau, only ranked a curiously shot 26th for DD when he won here four years ago but the six winners before him ranked 14th, fourth, 10th, first, fifth and fourth.

Although Hovland ranked third for Driving Accuracy and Sergio Garcia ranked fourth six years ago, you don't have to hit it especially straight here.

Hovland and Garcia apart, no other winner has ranked any better than 15th for fairways found and the average DA ranking of the ten winners before Hovland was just 37.1.

Hovland only ranked 10th for Greens In Regulation but Casey ranked fourth in 2021 and three of the top-five ranked sixth or better.

As many as 12 of the last 17 winners have ranked inside the top-five for GIR.

The 2020 and 2021 winners only ranked 22nd and 21st for Putting Average, and 41st and 14th for Strokes Gained Putting.

However, that could have been something to do with the deterioration of the old greens as up until 2020, putting had been absolutely key. Last year's beaten playoff protagonist, Richard Bland, ranked first for PA and second for SGP. The winner ranked 18th and 14th.

The 2019 winner, DeChambeau, ranked second for PA, Li ranked first in 2018 and so did Danny Willett when he won here in 2016.

Is There an Angle In?

There are four venues that seem to correlate nicely with the Emirates - Dom Pedro Victoria, Doha, the Gary Player Country Club and the Abu Dhabi Golf Club.

Dom Pedro Victoria hosts the Portugal Masters and there's plenty of evidence to suggest that's a tournament that correlates very nicely with this one.

The last two winners have never played in the Portugal Masters but the 2020 winner, Herbert, finished second in Portugal in 2018, and Garcia, who won here six years ago, finished seventh in his one and only appearance there in the same year.

The 2016 winner, Danny Willett, has finished inside the top-seven there three times and the three men to win this event before Rory McIlroy in 2015 - Alvaro Quiros, Rafa Cabrera-Bello and Stephen Gallacher, who won this event back-to-back, all have a top-three finish there...

In addition, Andy Sullivan, who finished alongside Cabrera-Bello in tied second here seven years ago, has finished first and second at the Portugal Masters and the 1997 DDC winner, Richard Green, has also won the Portugal Masters.

The Qatar Masters most used venue - Doha - is a course that's well worth close inspection with regards to this event.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout, who was beaten by Herbert in extra time two years ago, finished second there in 2019 and as many as five players have won here and at Doha - Ernie Els, Henrik Stenson, Thomas Bjorn, and the two Spaniards, Quiros and Sergio.

As many as seven players to win the Nedbank Golf Challenge at the Gary Player Country Club have won this event and five Gary Player Course winners - Bezuidenhout, Alex Noren, Lee Westwood, Martin Kaymer and Retief Goosen have finished second here.

Form in the desert holds up well so last week's result at the Yas Links will provide clues.

Tyrrell Hatton contended in both events last year, Hovland finished fourth before winning here 12 months ago and Cabrera Bello, who won this in 2011 finished second at Yas Links last year.

Form at the old Abu Dhabi venue holds up well here too. Casey has won there twice, and at the halfway stage of the 2021 renewal, the last to be staged at the Abu Dhabi Golf Club, four of the top-six had previously won this event.

In addition to the various course correlations, links form is well worth looking at given six of the last 15 players to win this title have also won an Open Championship and that Hovland was tied at the top with a round to go at St Andrews last year.

The course is fairly wind-exposed and it tends to get faster and harder as the week wares on which explains why links exponents do so well here.

Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four

2022 - Victor Hovland - T13th trailing by six 48.047/1
2021 - Paul Casey - lead by a stroke 1.991/1
2020 - Lucas Herbert - T13th trailing by six 300.0299/1
2019 - Bryson DeChambeau led by a stroke 1.9620/21
2018 - Li Haotong led by a stroke 3.711/4
2017 - Sergio Garcia led by three strokes 1.738/11
2016 - Danny Willett led by a stroke 2.6813/8

Following Victor Perez's victory last week, this is the second Rolex Series event of the year, so I've listed all the previous series winners to date below.

The cream tends to rise to the top in Rolex Series events and only one of the last 12 has gone off at a triple-figure price.

Rolex Series Winners

BMW PGA Championship 2017 - Alex Noren 22.021/1 1/2
Open de France 2017 - Tommy Fleetwood 25.024/1
Irish Open 2017 - Jon Rahm 18.017/1 1/3
Scottish Open 2017 - Rafa Cabrera-Bello 65.064/1
Italian Open 2017 - Tyrrell Hatton 20.019/1
Turkish Airlines Open 2017 - Justin Rose 9.28/1 1/2
Nedbank Golf Challenge 2017 - Branden Grace 18.017/1
DP World Championship 2017 - Jon Rahm 13.012/1 2/3
BMW PGA Championship 2018 - Francesco Molinari 22.021/1
Italian Open 2018 - Thorbjorn Olesen 130.0129/1
Open de France 2018 - Alex Noren 19.537/2 2/2
Irish Open 2018 - Russell Knox 27.026/1
Scottish Open 2018 - Brandon Stone 1000.0999/1
Turkish Airlines Open 2018 - Justin Rose 5.85/1 2/2
Nedbank Golf Challenge 2018 - Lee Westwood 55.054/1
DP World Championship 2018 - Danny Willett 150.0149/1 1/2
Abu Dhabi Championship 2019 - Shane Lowry 90.089/1
Irish Open 2019 - Jon Rahm 10.09/1 3/3
Scottish Open 2019 - Bernd Wiesberger 46.045/1
BMW PGA Championship 2019 - Danny Willett 80.079/1 2/2
Italian Open 2019 - Bernd Wiesberger 55.054/1 2/2
Turkish Airlines Open 2019 - Tyrrell Hatton 20.019/1 2/2
Nedbank Golf Challenge 2019 - Tommy Fleetwood 20.019/1 2/2
DP World Championship 2019 - Jon Rahm 8.07/1 4/4
Abu Dhabi Championship 2020 - Lee Westwood 140.0139/1 2/2
Scottish Open 2020 - Aaron Rai 110.0109/1
BMW PGA Championship 2019 - Tyrrell Hatton 22.021/1 3/3
DP World Championship 2019 - Matthew Fitzpatrick 22.021/1
Abu Dhabi Championship 2021 - Tyrrell Hatton 14.527/2 4/4
Scottish Open 2021 - Min Woo Lee 330.0329/1
BMW PGA Championship 2021 - Billy Horschel 36.035/1
DP World Championship 2021- Collin Morikawa 11.010/1
Abu Dhabi Championship 2022 - Thomas Pieters 46.045/1
Dubai Desert Classic 2022 - Viktor Hovland 11.010/1
Scottish Open 2022 - Xander Schauffele 21.020/1
BMW PGA Championship -Shane Lowry 19.018/1 2/2
DP World Tour Championship - Jon Rahm 6.25/1 5/5
Abu Dhabi Championship 2023 - Victor Perez 44.043/1

In-Play Tactics

As highlighted above in the course notes, how windy it is here is a determining factor as to how hard the course plays and it also has a huge bearing on how the tournament pans out.

The 2020 winner, Herbert, won with the highest winning total (-9), the previous record high had been -11 (Alvaro Quiros in 2011), and Hovland and Bland only got to 12-under-par 12 months ago.

It's no coincidence that those are the only three editions in which the winners have come from off the pace...

The tricky blustery conditions caused mayhem three ago and although they'd been up with the pace earlier in the tournament, both the playoff protagonists, Herbert and Bezuidenhout, had trailed by six with a round to go yet they finished two strokes clear of the remainder having traded at 1000.0999/1 during the final round!

Having been matched at a high of 95.094/1 in-running, Hovland finished birdie-eagle-birdie, but it still wouldn't have been enough without a poor finish from Rory McIlroy, who was matched at a low of 1.392/5.

Alvaro Quiros' victory here in 2011 was remarkable for a number of reasons.

He made three eagles, including a two on the par four second hole, and a hole-in-one during the final round, and he also made a pair of triple-bogeys; one on day one, at the par five 10th, and one at the eighth hole on day four but the most remarkable thing about his win was how far off the pace he had been before winning.

He trailed by eight strokes after both rounds one and two and up until 2020 that was the furthest any winner had trailed by a country mile.

Although he trailed by six after round three, Hovland started nicely enough (ninth and three back after round one and fifth and four adrift at halfway) and Mark O'Meara, who was six adrift in 2004 and Quiros, who trailed by eight in 2011, are the only winners this century that weren't within four of the lead after round one.

Herbert had sat third and two off the lead before dropping to 11th and four back at halfway three years ago and he's just the third tournament winner to be outside the top-ten at the halfway stage.

Quiros 12 years ago and Robert-Jan Derksen, the shock 2003 champ, who sat tied for 20th and five off the lead, are the other two. Every other course winner here has been inside the top-six places at halfway.

DeChambeau sat second after round one in 2019, just one behind the early pacesetter, Matthew Fitzpatrick, but he led all the way after that and the 2017 winner, Garcia, was the sixth player to win wire-to-wire.

Only two of the last ten 54-hole leaders have been beaten (Ashun Wu in 2020 and Justin Harding 2022) and in 21 of the 33 editions staged to date, the third round leader has gone on to win.

Market Leaders

After a missed cut in 2006, a tied 52nd in 2007, and another weekend of in '08, Rory McIlroy's first pro win came at the Emirates back in 2009 and he's finished inside the top-ten here in his eight subsequent starts.

He even managed third 12 months ago (traded at a low of 1.392/5) despite opening with 71 to sit six adrift in a tie for 46^th and that was an unusually slow start for the Northern Irishman here given that was the first time in nine starts that he hadn't ended day one inside the top-six and that he's led or co-led here after round one four times.

Rory clearly loves the venue but we haven't seen him since he finished fourth behind Jon Rahm in the DP World Tour Championship more than two months ago so at around 7/2, he's short enough for me in the win market.

With course form figures reading MC-55-8-3-3-38-22-4, Tyrrell Hatton is a very obvious danger to Rory following his never nearer seventh last week in Abu Dhabi.

The Englishman couldn't buy a putt on Thursday as he recorded 18 straight pars but the flatstick warmed up a bit after that and for the third event in-a-row he finished the week ranking inside the top-ten for Putting Average.

He lost his way on Saturday 12 months ago having sat second at halfway and having been backed at a low of 2.3211/8 and that happened to him at the DP World Tour Championship in his penultimate start too.

It's only a matter of time before he wins again and this place suits Hatton's eye perfectly.

Things need to fall right for Tommy Fleetwood to win and as highlighted before the off in Abu Dhabi last week, where he finished a disappointing 38^th, since getting off the mark on the DP World Tour ten years ago, every one of his subsequent five wins have come from off the pace, so he's rarely an attractive price before the off. And even less so at a venue like this that tends to suit frontrunners.

This is Tommy's 12^th visit to the Emirates and he has just two top-ten finishes - 10^th in 2013 and sixth in 2018 - so he makes no appeal.

Shane Lowry finished poorly last week - shooting 40 on the back-nine on Sunday -having been tied for the lead at halfway, so his tied 28^th is a little misleading.

Not remotely interested in finishing second, the Irishman will have been deflated once his chance to win was gone and he clearly played better than his finishing position suggests but like Fleetwood, he doesn't have a sparkling portfolio at the Emirates with his 11^th in 2020 his best effort from eight starts.

Selections

Given Rory's penchant for a fast start (he's led or co-led after round one 33 times!) I was happy to back him in the 1^st Round Leader market at in excess of 14.013/1 and should he oblige (for the fifth time here!), I'll put the winnings towards taking him in on in the win market.

He often makes for a great back-to-lay vehicle in the Middle East, and if he leads after round one, he'll almost certainly be too short (converted just five of 33 round one leads and none of his last 14!) but I'd rather throw a few pounds in his direction in the 1^st Round Leader market than take a larger position in the win market at short odds.

Having constructed form figures reading 3-3-9-12-4-3 since missing the cut at the Italian Open way back in September, Min Woo Lee came close to taking Victor Perez to a playoff in Abu Dhabi last week.

The shot that nearly forced a play-off#ADGolfChamps #RolexSeries @Minwoo27Lee pic.twitter.com/wErYFsM5Ht

-- DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) January 22, 2023

Matt Cooper makes a strong case for the Australian in his each-way piece here and as Matt points out, we can ignore his poor debut on his only previous appearance as he was playing deplorably at the time.

This venue should suit the in-form Lee perfectly and I thought 25.024/1 was more than fair.

A second placed finish at the aforementioned Portugal Masters in 2021 is a strong pointer for Denmark's Nicolai Hojgaard who will defend his Ras Al Khaimah Championship title next week and I thought he was a decent price at 65.064/1 after back-to-back top-tens on the DP World Tour.

Hojgaard missed the cut on debut here 12 months ago but he's a very in-and-out performer so that doesn't bother me at all given the venue looks perfect for his aggressive style.

Hojgaard started slowly last week in Abu Dhabi with an opening 71 before rounds of 67, 69 and 69 saw him climb to tenth and if he'd have putted slightly better he would have finished much closer.

He ranked first for Driving Distance and Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, fourth for Greens In Regulation and sixth for Scrambling but only 49^th for Putting Average and 61^st for Strokes Gained Putting. If he plays like that well from tee-to-green and putts a bit better he'll be there or thereabouts.

My third pick was going to be included in the Find Me a 100 winner column which I'll publish late but since I took 130.0129/1 yesterday the price about Sami Valimaki has collapsed.

The 24-year-old Finn, who won the Oman Open in 2020, has been poor here so far, finishing 51^st on debut in 2021 before missing the cut last year but he was playing poorly at the time on both occasions.

Valimaki lines up on Thursday on the back of a scintillating 62 in Abu Dhabi on Sunday and that came four starts after he'd finished runner-up at the Joburg Open. He was also 11^th at the Mauritius Open before Christmas, having been tied for the lead at halfway so a second win may not be far away.

Selections:

Rory McIlroy @ an average of 14.527/2 in the 1^st Round Leader market

Min Woo Lee @ 25.024/1

Nicolai Hojgaard @ 65.064/1

Sami Valimaki @ 130.0129/1

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter