Valero Texas Open tips and predictions
The Punter's Preview: Steve Rawlings on an Identikit Winner
Steve Rawlings: When I first read about the course, back in 2010, it was said to have an Aussie feel about it. The bunkers certainly have that sand belt look about them and Steven Bowditch confirmed the link when he won in 2014, saying that the course was like a lot of courses back home so it's perhaps not surprising that we've had a couple of Aussies win but the locals have fared best.
The 2021 winner, Jordan Spieth, is a Texan, the 2018 winner, Andrew Landry, was born in Port Neches, Texas, and he now lives in Austin, three of the top-four were Texans that year, and 11 of the last 28 Valero Texas Open winners have been Texans.
Spieth went of favourite five years ago, Scott was well-fancied in 2010, and so was Jimmy Walker in 2015.
The 2024 winner, Bhatia, was a 75.074/1 chance, the 2023 champ, Connors, the 2017 winner, Chappell, and the 2016 winner, Charley Hoffman, all went off at around 30.029/1 but the other eight course winners all went off at a triple-figure price so don't be discouraged if you fancy an outsider and if he's a Texan then that's all the better.
Generally a 220.0219/1 chance at the off, Spaun was matched at a whopping 450.0449/1 when the market first opened in 2022, Harman was matched at as high as 290.0289/1 on Monday last year, and when he won here the first time in 2019, Conners was matched at a high of 420.0419/1 when he first entered the market after Monday qualifying.
Each-Way Tips: Back Straka at 20/121.00
Dave Tindall: There are five players shorter than Sepp Straka in the betting this week but the Austrian has more wins than any of them (four) since 2022. Two of Straka's victories came last year and the one that leaps out is May's triumph in the Truist Championship. That came the week before the USPGA and formed part of a series of strong results in his final start before a Major.
Straka was also third at Memorial in his last outing before the US Open and then seventh at the Scottish Open a week before going into battle for the Claret Jug. In short, the Ryder Cup star is very good at focusing on the task in hand rather than letting his mind wander.
While his course form looks average, Straka closed 70-70-69 to post 22nd on his most recent start here in 2023. I'm happy to overlook 67th and MC before that as he wasn't the same player. In addition, past winners had hardly ripped the place up previously. Bhatia's course form was 46-MC before his 2024 victory while Harman's previous four efforts at the course before his win 12 months ago read: 25-MC-51-MC. I'm more interested that Straka has the game and form to win here.
Back Sepp Straka each-way (8 Places)
Find Me a 100 Winner: Take a chance on Taylor at 99/1100.00
Steve Rawlings: It's now 10 years since Taylor sat sixth with a round to go here on debut and, although he shot 73 on Sunday to slip to tied 21st, that was a great effort on his first visit.
This is a venue that takes some getting to know, and a debutant hasn't won here since Ben Curtis took the third renewal at TPC San Antonio back in 2013, so course experience looks vital. This is Taylor's eighth visit. He doesn't have a great bank of course form but he finished 15th last year and I'm happy to chance him at a triple-figure price given how prolific he is.
Taylor has won three times in the last three years and, although he hasn't been in sparkling form since he finished 13th when defending his Sony Open title in January (tied for the lead at halfway), that's not in the least bit off-putting given he was out-of-form before he won all five of his previous PGA Tour titles.
Back Nick Taylor (2Us)
First Round Leader Picks: Mitchell a great fit at 50/151.00
Dave Tindall: Keith Mitchell was a great first-round lead follow last year when, in a six-tournament run, he topped the R1 leaderboard three times and sat second on two other occasions.
In the last four events, he's twice been ninth after the first lap while Mitchell has momentum after closing with a 65 to finish 14th in Houston last week.
Two of those fast starts mentioned in his run of great Thursdays came in Texas and they include the 64 he fired on day one here 12 months ago. That was good enough for second place after 18 holes.
Mitchell finished in the top dozen last year and has improved his result on each visit to TPC San Antonio: 26-17-14-12.
This season, the man in the visor is 9th Off The Tee and 18th Tee-To-Green while he's ranked in the top 15 for Approach in three of his last four events.
Those are the sort of numbers that can help him get off to another flyer from his 1:54pm start from No.10.
Back Keith Mitchell each-way for FRL
Course and current form stats
Course Form Pick:
A winner here in 2021, who was 12th last year and 10th in 2024, the three-time Major champion could well be a contender this week. He was born in Dallas and attended the University of Texas so is a Lone Star State boy through and through, and that will probably count for plenty again.
Jordan Spieth