Valero Texas Open 2026 First-Round Leader Tips: Dave Tindall's three to back up to 80/1

Valero Texas Open weather forecast for Thursday

In terms of wind speeds, Thursday looks the calmest day of the tournament. The very early starters will face winds of around 7mph before it picks up and peaks around 13mph at 1pm. It could drop again later.

Temperatures rise from the high 60s to just below 85 degrees in the afternoon. Rain is also in the forecast in the morning which could soften the course.

We've had a solo first-round leader in each of the last five years here and four of those went off in the afternoon.

Twice it was achieved with a 63 (twice 64 and once 65).

First Round Leader Bet 1: Jhonattan Vegas @ 100/1101.00

With the focus on approach play at TPC San Antonio, it was notable to see Jhonattan Vegas get back to near his ball-striking best in last week's Houston Open.

The Venezuelan ranked 9th for SG: Approach and shot rounds of 67-67-68-68 to post 14th.

That was actually his second top 20 in the last three starts while in the last four he's had first-round positions of 4th, 11th and 18th.

Vegas has been both second and third after 18 holes here previously and we only have to go back to May last year to see him leading after round one of the US PGA.

That was a week after sitting second after day one of another Texas event, the Byron Nelson.

Vegas tees off at 1:06pm from the 10th and several roads lead to him at 100/1101.00.

First Round Leader Bet 2: Keith Mitchell @ 50/151.00

Keith Mitchell was a great first-round lead follow last year when, in a six-tournament run, he topped the R1 leaderboard three times and sat second on two other occasions.

In the last four events, he's twice been ninth after the first lap while Mitchell has momentum after closing with a 65 to finish 14th in Houston last week.

Two of those fast starts mentioned in his run of great Thursdays came in Texas and they include the 64 he fired on day one here 12 months ago. That was good enough for second place after 18 holes.

Mitchell finished in the top dozen last year and has improved his result on each visit to TPC San Antonio: 26-17-14-12.

This season, the man in the visor is 9th Off The Tee and 18th Tee-To-Green while he's ranked in the top 15 for Approach in three of his last four events.

Those are the sort of numbers that can help him get off to another flyer from his 1:54pm start from No.10. 

First Round Leader Bet 3: Marco Penge @ 45/146.00

Seeing courses for the first time isn't stopping Marco Penge making an impression in the first round of tournaments.

He was the 18-hole and 36-hole leader at the Genesis Invitational and was fifth at halfway in the Valspar Championship before finishing fourth.

Although the Englishman missed the Houston Open cut last week, he was actually sixth after round one thanks to a 66.

Last year on the DP World Tour, Penge was the first-round leader at the BMW International Open and the Danish Golf Championship. There were plenty of other quick starts too.

Penge looks a fair bet at 45s and he's my morning starter at 08:30 from the 10th.

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