Valero Texas Open: Look to the long-shots at San Antonio says the Punter

What happened last week? Woodland wins again and long odds-on Chacarra gets caught in India

Gary Woodland, who had undergone brain surgery and suffered PTSG since he last won on the PGA Tour, at the 2019 US Open, won the Houston Open in emphatic fashion on Sunday.

The pre-event 110.0109/1 shot sat second after round one before moving three clear of the field at halfway when he was trading at around 5/23.50 and he still held the lead with 18 to play.

Denmark's Nicolai Hojgaard closed to within a stroke of Woodland with a round to go and the market narrowly favoured the younger man as the final round tee-times approached.

The pair had both traded at 2.26/5 on  Sunday morning but Hojgaard shortened up before the final round and he touched odds-on as they played the opening hole, hitting a low of 1.9420/21, but Woodland holed a par putt from 13 feet before Hojgaard missed his par save from nine and the 41-year-old never looked back after that, eventually going on to win by five.

Woodland went on to win comfortably in Texas but it was a very different story on the DP World Tour where the defending champ, Eugenio Chacarra, who had led by four with 18 to play, hit a low of just 1.162/13 when he led by five after the turn.

The Spaniard looked in control but at a layout as quirky as DLF, anything can happen in a hurry and as Alex Fitzpatrick put in a charge on the back nine, the Spaniard hit the skids.

Although he'd begun the day tied for second and trading at 8.415/2, Fitzpatrick looked highly unlikely to win when he trailed by six after he'd played his first five holes on Sunday in two-over par but the pre-event 30.029/1 chance birdied eight holes in a 12 hole stretch from the sixth and after Chacarra had bogeyed three in-row from the 15^th, Fitzpatrick could afford a double-bogey seven at the last and still win by two!

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Valero Texas Open Tournament History 

Having first been staged in 1922, and always played in the San Antonio area of Texas, the Valero Texas Open is one of the older events on the PGA Tour.  

The tournament was staged at La Cantera Golf Club between 1995 and 2009 before switching to its current venue, TPC San Antonio, back in 2010, and having signed up until 2028, this is going to be the host course for some time to come. 

There was no event in 2020 because of the pandemic but as was the case in 2013, and for the last six years, the Valero Texas Open is the last event before the year's first major championship - the US Masters - next week at Augusta.  

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Venue 

TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course), San Antonio, Texas.

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Course Details 

Par 72, 7,438 yards 
Stroke Average in 2025 - 72.48

This tough Greg Norman-designed track opened in January 2010 and fellow Aussie, Adam Scott, won the inaugural staging here just a few months later.   

As you'd imagine with a course called the Oaks, the track winds its way through stands of oak trees.  
Although fairway widths vary, it's not an especially tight track but avoiding the trees is essential.   

A unique feature of the course is that all downhill holes play into the prevailing wind, while the uphill holes play downwind. TPC San Antonio is yet another track laid to Bermuda grass and the greens, which are overseeded with bentgrass and poa, usually run at around 11 on the Stimpmeter.  

The greens are set to run slower than the average but that's necessary given how often the wind blows here.  

The Oaks also hosted the TPC San Antonio Championship on the Korn Ferry Tour in July 2020.  

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Weather Forecast 

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TV Coverage 

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 13:30 on Thursday.

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Last 10 Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices 

2025 - Brian Harman -9 160.0159/1
2024 - Akshay Bhatia -20 75.074/1 (playoff) 
2023 - Corey Connors -15 30.029/1 
2022 - J.J Spaun -13 220.0219/1 
2021 - Jordan Spieth -18 15.014/1 
2020 - Event Cancelled (Covid) 
2019 - Corey Conners -20 260.0259/1 
2018 - Andrew Landry -17 150.0149/1 
2017 - Kevin Chappell -12 32.031/1 
2016 - Charley Hoffman -12 30.029/1 

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What Will it Take to Win the Valero Texas Open? 

The first four home last year ranked 44^th, 60^th, 24^th and 14^th for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and that's a good indication of how unimportant the driving metrics are here.

Akshay Bhatia ranked eighth for Driving Distance two years ago but Brian Harman only ranked 46^th last year and the six winners before Bhatia ranked only 52^nd, 46^th, 23^rd, 28^th, 46^th and 25^th for DD so length off the tee is far from imperative. 

Driving Accuracy was an important stat in 2019, with the top five ranking tied-seventh, tied-seventh, first, 26^th and fourth and Corey Connors ranked third for DA when winning the event for a second time in 2023 but in the four renewals in-between, 25 players finished inside the top-five and ties and only four of them ranked inside the top 20 for Driving Accuracy and DA has been an irrelevant stat over the last two years too. 

Harman only ranked 11^th for Greens In Regulation last year but Maverick McNearly in third topped the standings and the 2018 winner, Andrew Landry, Connors in both 2019 and 2023 and the 2024 winner, Bhatia, all topped the Greens In Regulation stats, so that's clearly a key stat. And a good week with the putter is usually essential too... 

Connors only ranked 33^rd for Putting Average in 2023 but the runner-up, Sam Stevens, ranked first, the first two home ranked one and two last year, and the playoff protagonists in 2024 ranked seventh and first. 

As many as eight of the last 11 winners have ranked inside the top-five for Putting Average and three winners in-a-row between 2019 and 2022 (no event in 2020), like Harman last year, all topped the PA rankings.

Although Harman only ranked 27^th 12 months ago, Scrambling is often a key stat here, and it was again two years ago, with the front three ranking eighth, first and second. 

The front three in 2021 ranked fourth, second and first and in the 10 renewals before last year's edition, at least one placed player has ranked fourth or better for Scrambling, but I don't think we can class it as absolutely critical given JJ Spaun only ranked 57^th four years ago and Conners, ranked only 70^th in 2019!  

Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and Strokes Gained: Approach look key stats.

Spaun ranked fifth for SG: Tee to Green and only 23^rd for SG: Approach four years ago but Harman ranked fifth and second for those two metrics, Bhatia ranked first for both two years ago, and Connors ranked ninth and first in 2023. And the four winners before Spaun all ranked inside the top-four for those two metrics.  

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Is There an Angle In?

Although none of them won at Sawgrass, the last five winners here have all been placed in the Players Championship and form at the Sony Open, the Puerto Rico Open, the World Wide Technology Championship, (when it was staged at Mayakoba) and the Procore Championship at Silverado is all worthy of consideration.

San Antonio winners, Brendon Steele and Jimmy Walker, have both won the Procore at Silverado, the 2018 Procore winner, Kevin Tway, has finished third here, and the 2014 Valero Texas Open champ, Steven Bowditch, finished runner-up at Silverado in the same year. 

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Is There an Identikit Winner? 

When I first read about the course, back in 2010, it was said to have an Aussie feel about it. The bunkers certainly have that sand belt look about them and Steven Bowditch confirmed the link when he won in 2014, saying that the course was like a lot of courses back home so it's perhaps not surprising that we've had a couple of Aussies win but the locals have fared best.  

The 2021 winner, Jordan Spieth, is a Texan, the 2018 winner, Andrew Landry, was born in Port Neches, Texas, and he now lives in Austin, three of the top-four were Texans that year, and 11 of the last 28 Valero Texas Open winners have been Texans.  

Spieth went of favourite five years ago, Scott was well-fancied in 2010, and so was Jimmy Walker in 2015.   

The 2024 winner, Bhatia, was a 75.074/1 chance, the 2023 champ, Connors, the 2017 winner, Chappell, and the 2016 winner, Charley Hoffman, all went off at around 30.029/1 but the other eight course winners all went off at a triple-figure price so don't be discouraged if you fancy an outsider and if he's a Texan then that's all the better.  

Generally a 220.0219/1 chance at the off, Spaun was matched at a whopping 450.0449/1 when the market first opened in 2022, Harman was matched at as high as 290.0289/1 on Monday last year, and when he won here the first time in 2019, Conners was matched at a high of 420.0419/1 when he first entered the market after Monday qualifying.   

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Winner's Position and Exchange Price Pre-Round Four 

2025 - Brian Harman - leading by three 1.748/11
2024 - Akshay Bhatia - leading by four 1.341/3 
2023 - Corey Conner- solo 2^nd trailing by one 2.89/5 
2022 - J.J Spaun - tied for the lead 8.07/1 
2021 - Jordan Spieth - tied for the lead 2.26/5 
2020 - Event Cancelled (Covid) 
2019 - Corey Conner- solo 2^nd trailing by one 5.04/1 
2018 - Andrew Landry - tied for the lead 4.3100/30 
2017 - Kevin Chappell - led by a stroke 5.49/2 
2016 - Charley Hoffman - tied third trailing by two 8.07/1  

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In-Play Tactics 

The Lone Star State is notoriously windy so an ability to play well in breezy conditions is usually essential and we've seen some huge draw biases in the past. 

Bhatia was the first wire-to-wire winner and the three winners before him were all inside the top five and within three strokes after every round. Being up with the pace appears almost essential here...  

Having sat third, trailing by three, after round one last year, Harman led by four and three strokes after rounds two and three, Connors sat first or second after every round in 2024 and in the 15 renewals here to date, 12 winners have been inside the first three places at halfway.  

As many as 10 of the 15 winners here have been leading or co-leading after three rounds so concentrating hard on the pacesetters makes sense. 

The front nine is harder than the back-nine and the finish to the course offers up a few chances to score. The par five 14^th was the easiest hole again last year, for the 10^th time in 11 years, and the drivable par four 17^th ranked the third easiest. The par five 18^th tends to vary from year to year depending on how they set it up. 

It averaged over-par in 2018, ranking as the 11^th easiest, but it was the second easiest hole in 2024 and the fourth easiest last year, averaging 4.94.

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Keep an eye on the Masters market 

Anyone that plays well here will shorten up significantly for next week's US Masters, so be prepared to jump on anyone you like for next week if they start well here. 

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Morikawa the sole San Antonio selection 

EDIT: Since Steve's preview went live Collin Morikawa has withdrawn from the Valero Texas Open. Check back on Saturday morning for Steve's in-play verdict and potential bets and check out his Find Me a 100 Winner column here for his two long-shot selections.

Collin Morikawa hasn't been sighted since he withdrew from the Players Championship after one hole when he tweaked his back on the tee so he's a bit of a risky play this week.

There's a chance he's only in the line up to test his wellbeing ahead of next week's US Masters and the fact that he missed the cut here two years ago on his only previous visit can't be construed as a positive either. But I'm still happy to chance him modestly at around 25/126.00.

Morikawa has finished seventh in the Genesis Invitational and fifth in the Arnold Palmer Invitational since he won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and not only has he been in incredible form, he's a brilliant fit statistically having ranked no worse than eighth for either Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and SG: Approach in each of those three starts.

The world number four also ranked inside the top 10 for Driving Accuracy in each of those three starts and that could be a decisive factor too this year given the primary rough is up an inch to three inches since the 2025 edition.

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Now read more Golf tips and previews here.

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