Valero Texas Open Open 2026: Dave Tindall's each-way picks from 20/1 to 70/1

---

Introduction to the Valero Texas Open

With the US Masters hitting our screens next week, it's a surprise that some of the leading contenders haven't teed it up in the last few events.

Scottie Scheffler normally has a warm-up in Texas (his home State) in the build-up while a fifth place in last year's Houston Open acted as the perfect warm-up for Rory McIlroy's thrilling Masters triumph.

Overall, seven of the top eight in the Masters betting (click here for the latest on the Betfair Sportsbook) won't have played in either of the last two weeks.

But there are a fair few Augusta hopefuls taking part, with Ludvig Aberg, Russell Henley and Tommy Fleetwood 12/113.00 co-favourites here.

It's an understatement to say the betting is bunched as no less than 20 players are quoted at 35/136.00 or less. 

The Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio is a Greg Norman design. Par is 72 on the 7,438-yard tree-lined track which only opened in 2010.

Greens are a little slower than PGA Tour standard due to the strong winds often felt on the property.

It'll certainly blow again this week although Thursday and Saturday offer a little respite. Sunday is interesting as winds hover around 15-18mph.

To find the winner, you're best rummaging around in a box called ball-striking rather than scrambling or putting.

Corey Conners - a flusher who lacks short-game magic - has just two PGA Tour wins to his name. Both came here.

In the most recent win (2023) he ranked 1st for both Tee To Green and Approach while in the other (2019) he was 2nd and 1st in those same two categories. It's a big surprise not to see him in the field this week.

The last two winners, Brian Harman and Akshay Bhatia, ranked 2nd and 1st respectively for Approach. 

Also note that three of the last four champions were in the top 10 for SG: Off The Tee.

Architects often design golf courses in their image so it's no surprise that Norman would put a value on hitting fairways and driving it well.

---

Bet 1: Sepp Straka @ 20/121.00

With the betting so cramped, a deciding factor in my eyes is who actually puts wins on the board.

There are five players shorter than Sepp Straka in the betting this week but the Austrian has more wins than any of them (four) since 2022.

Two of Straka's victories came last year and the one that leaps out is May's triumph in the Truist Championship.

That came the week before the USPGA and formed part of a series of strong results in his final start before a Major.

Straka was also third at Memorial in his last outing before the US Open and then seventh at the Scottish Open a week before going into battle for the Claret Jug.

In short, the Ryder Cup star is very good at focusing on the task in hand rather than letting his mind wander.

While his course form looks average, Straka closed 70-70-69 to post 22nd on his most recent start here in 2023. I'm happy to overlook 67th and MC before that as he wasn't the same player.

In addition, past winners had hardly ripped the place up previously. Bhatia's course form was 46-MC before his 2024 victory while Harman's previous four efforts at the course before his win 12 months ago read: 25-MC-51-MC.

I'm more interested that Straka has the game and form to win here.

He ranks 13th Tee To Green this season and 12th for Approach while 42nd for Driving Accuracy is reassuring too.

In his last five starts he can boast a second place at Pebble Beach, eighth at the Players Championship, 13th at Bay Hill and 18th in Phoenix.

---

Bet 2: Jordan Smith @ 50/151.00

I backed Jordan Smith at last week's Houston Open and will give him another go here.

In truth, this course should suit him better given that he's an elite driver and that's what we're looking for.

Smith did absolutely nothing wrong at all last week, shooting four rounds in the 60s but not making enough birdies for a tournament won with 21-under.

But it built upon his excellent third place at the Valspar and added to a body of work which also includes 16th in Phoenix and 23rd at the Cognizant Classic. 

On the stats, Smith has ranked 13th and 4th for Off The Tee in the last two events and 26th and 2nd Tee To Green.

He's 17th (OTT) and 26th (TTG) in the season-long charts and, most impressively, a scan of the Ball Striking table finds Smith in 3rd. That is no surprise to those who have watched him for many years on the DP World Tour.

Smith's game is translating well to America (he previously had a US Open top 20 to his name) and he should be looking forward to this test.

For the record, in 14 starts on Greg Norman designs he's had 11 top 30s and never missed a cut. 

---

Bet 3: Tony Finau @ 70/171.00

I'm struggling to get excited about any of that massive bunch between 20/121.00 and 35/136.00.

Ryo Hisatsune at 28s - just eight points bigger than compatriot Hideki Matsuyama? In fact, that makes me think Matsuyama is interesting.

Marco Penge drifting to 45s looks an overreaction to one bad round last week but I'll look a bit further down the board.

Tony Finau isn't far away from a big week and is worth a go here at 70/171.00.

So far this season he has an 11th (Torrey Pines), two 18ths (Pebble Beach and Valspar) and a 28th (Riviera). 

Last week he was 39th in Houston and, despite a feeling that he's still a bit flakey, Finau has shot 71 or lower in each of his last eight rounds.

I also like the Greg Norman angle for him.

Finau has a first (2023) and a second (2022) at Norman's Vidanta Vallarta, a couple of top 10s at El Camaleon and also a third place here.

He's only played one of the last three editions of this event but returns knowing only a win will do if he's going to line up in his ninth straight Masters.

Finau ranked 6th Tee To Green and 8th for Approach at the Valspar two starts ago and gained strokes with the putter last week after negatives in the previous two. Note he was 1st for SGP at Pebble. 

There was also better news with the driver in Houston as Finau recorded positive OTT numbers for the first time in six starts.

It's all a puzzle that needs putting together but the pieces are sprinkled right there in front of us. Hopefully Finau can connect them. 

---

Now read Steve Rawlings' in-depth Valero Texas Open preview

---

*You can follow me on Twitter @DaveTindallgolf

---