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Golf Tips: Best bets for Byron Nelson Championship and Soudal Open

Max Liu
11 May 2022
3:00 min read

Flag at the AT&T Byron Nelson Championship

World number one Scottie Scheffler starts as favourite at the Byron Nelson

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With just one week before the US PGA Championship get the best bets from Steve Rawlings, Dave Tindall and more for this week's Bryon Nelson Championship and the Soudal Open...

"The Canadian ranks 17th for Strokes Gained: Approach this season and has picked up at least 3.2 strokes over the field in six of his last six seven individual strokeplay events."

Back Adam Hadwin each-way @ 51.050/1

Byron Nelson Championship: Outsiders set to shine in Texas

Read Steve Rawlings' in-depth preview of the Byron Nelson Championship in Texas ahead of Thursday's start...

Steve says: "Texans usually fare well in their home state - they have an outstanding record, for example, in the Valero Texas Open - but they don't have a great recent record in this event.

"Overseas players have a strong record in the tournament though and only nine of the 21 winners this century have been American. If recent history is to be believed, it's the Australians and the Koreans who deserve most respect.

"Aussies always tend to do well in windy Texas and we've seen three recent winners in the shape of Adam Scott, Jason Day and Steven Bowditch. Lee is the third Korean to win in eight renewals. Like the Aussie contingent, the Koreans clearly enjoy the windy conditions too.

"Sergio Garcia is the only recent winner who was fairly-well fancied, going off at 30.029/1, and this has been a terrific tournament for longshots with seven of the last eight winners all matched at a triple-figure price before the off."

"I came close to backing Joaquin Niemann, Will Zalatoris and Aaron Wise... Niemann has been in fine fettle this year and he enjoys a low-scoring birdie-fest. Zalatoris is putting much better of late and he showed an aptitude for the venue 12 months ago. The former event winner, Wise, caught the eye last time out in Mexico."

Byron Nelson Each-Way Tips: Hadwin can take title in Texas

As the PGA Tour heads back to Texas, Dave Tindall recommends three each-way tips for the action at TPC Craig Ranch starting with a Canadian who tends to do well in the American south...

Dave says: "With the US PGA Championship taking place next week (look out for my trends preview this Wednesday), a few glamour names are taking part and the identity of a couple of them is no surprise given their Texas conditions.

"Masters champ Scottie Scheffler heads the betting at 9/1 while fellow Texan Jordan Spieth is third favourite at 16s. The field also includes 12/1 Justin Thomas and 18/1 Dustin Johnson. All deserve respect but for my main bet I'm going to scroll down to 50/1 and put up Adam Hadwin.

"The Canadian ranks 17th for Strokes Gained: Approach this season and has picked up at least 3.2 strokes over the field in six of his last six seven individual strokeplay events.

"During that time period he had a string of strong finishes in the Southern States with tied ninth at The Players Championship, tied seventh at the Valspar Championship and tied fourth at the Valero Texas Open."

Dave's bet: Back Adam Hadwin each-way @ 51.050/1

Byron Nelson First-Round Leader Tips: Wolff can win Thursday race

Who will make a fast start at TPC Craig Ranch on Thursday? Dave Tindall has three picks for the first round leader betting...

Dave says: "Matthew Wolff's early PGA Tour career is a mix of highs and lows but that sort of profile makes him a good bet in this market.

"Go back to last August's WGC-St Jude Invitational and there are plenty of low opening laps sprinkled around.

"A 64 put him second after 18 holes at TPC Southwind while a stunning 61 gave him the first-round lead at Mayakoba just five starts later. Between those two, another Thursday 64 placed Wolff fifth on the R1 leaderboard at the Shriners in Las Vegas.

"It's been the usual Wolff rollercoaster in 2022 but the good stuff includes a day one 65 at the Saudi International and another opening lap of 65 at last week's Wells Fargo Championship which put him third after the first round.

Dave's bet: Back Matthew Wolff each-way at 81.080/1

Find Me a 100 Winner: Red-hot Kitayama backed again

The PGA Tour takes in a terrific event for outsiders - the AT&T Byron Nelson Championship - and our man has four picks

Steve says: "Although there have only been three events staged at TPC Craig Ranch in the last 12 years - last year's renewal and two editions of the Korn Ferry Championship (2008 and 2012) - we can already see that the key to winning at this easy track is to find plenty of greens and to putt well.

"The three course winners have ranked 12th, fourth and fifth for Greens In Regulation and the top-three and ties last year ranked second, first, fourth, fifth, 19th and 26th for Strokes Gained Tee to Green so finding the dancefloors is important and that's something Kurt Kitayama has been doing brilliantly of late.

Kitayama ranked 10th for Strokes Gained tee to Green and 11th for GIR when coming up close for the column two weeks ago in Mexico (finished tied second) and he ranked second for SGT2G and eighth for GIR when finishing 15th at the Wells Fargo Championship.

"Add in the fact that he's ranked fifth and ninth for Putting Average in each of the last two weeks and Kitayama looks a terrific fit."

Steve's bet: Back Kurt Kitayama @ [150.0

Byron Nelson Form Stats: Burns to star in the south

Andy Swales provides the tournament history, course info, player stats and explains which players we should be keep a close eye on in Texas...

Andy says: "At TPC Craig Ranch there are few large water hazards to contend with, although Rowlett Creek crosses the course 14 times and will probably be a threat to top class professional golfers on nine holes.

"Despite its location in the southern state of Texas, the greens are laid with Bentgrass, rather than the usual Bermuda which is normally favoured in this hot summer climate.

TPC CRAIG RANCH 2022 2.jpg

"Nine members of the world's top 20 golfers are teeing-up, ahead of next week's second major championship of 2022.

"Sam Burns was runner-up at TPC Craig Ranch last year. The 25-year-old from Shreveport, Louisiana, has a strong record in the southern states. He has won twice in Florida and once in Mississippi, on the PGA Tour, while his sole success on the Korn Ferry Tour came in Georgia."

Andy's Player to Watch: Sam Burns @ 22.021/1

Soudal Open: Kenyan form could be the key in Belgium

The DP World Tour returns to Belgium for the first time in three years and Steve Rawlings is looking to Africa for clues.

Steve says: "This is track where players that have prospered on tight layouts have thrived. (Last week's winner) Ashun Wu is a logical pick given the man he overhauled on Sunday in Kenya, Ewan Ferguson, was a beaten semi-finalist when Migliozzi won here in 2019 And Migliozzi endorses form in Kenya too.

"The Italian won his Kenya Open at Karen, whereas Wu won his at Muthaiga but both courses are short, tight, tree-lined layouts.

"Last week's venue, the Belfry, and Valderrama, may also correlate nicely with this venue but the event that kept cropping up when I was digging around was the Austrian Open, even though the host course, the Jeremy Pern designed Diamond Course, isn't a tight tree-lined venue...

"Sebastian Soderberg could very easily suffer from a bit of mental let-down after last week's disappointment, but he won the 2016 Kenya Open at Karen Country Club and he finished tied for 11th after the stroke play element of the 2019 Belgian Knockout, shooting rounds of 67 and 69 when badly out of form at the time."

Steve's bet: Back Sebastian Soderberg @ 80.079/1

Soudal Open Each-Way Tips: Ashun can Wu the win again

Matt Cooper has three selections for the tournament in Belgium with the Betfair Sportsbook paying seven places...

Matt says: "A player who is comfortable between the trees is the order of the week and China's Ashun Wu was already won in such circumstances this season, at Muthaiga in the Kenya Open.

"Moreover, even outside of that peak, he's been ticking along in pretty good form this year and quotes of 40/1 and bigger look handy to me this week.

"He's added six top 30s to the win, two of them in the last fortnight at PGA Catalunya and The Belfry. In his back history, he has plenty of success on parkland, tree-lined courses in Japan and he is a four-time winner on the DP World Tour so likes the thrill of the Sunday chase for victory.

"If you look at scoring for the last six months the likely candidates are up there and priced accordingly: Sam Horsfield, Ryan Fox, Thomas Pieters, Oliver Bekker, Adrian Meronk, Thorbjorn Olesen, Bernd Wiesberger. Wu comes next, he's a much bigger price, he's already won this year and he has it in him to do so again.

Matt's bet: Back Ashun Wu each-way @ 51.050/1

Soudal Open: Form stats for this week's tournament in Belgium

Andy Swales provides the course info and player form stats as well as picking his ones to watch for this week's DP World Tour event...

Andy says: "Located around 10 miles north-east of Antwerp city centre, Rinkven International is a traditional parkland course which opened for business 40 years ago.

"On the two previous occasions the Tour visited Rinkven, the tournament was called the Belgian Knockout.

"This comprised of a 36-hole strokeplay qualifier, after which the leading 64 players advanced to a weekend of knockout competition, involving a series of medal match-play ties, each staged over nine holes. This week, however, the Soudal Open will be contested over the traditional 72 holes of strokeplay.

"New Zealander Ryan Fox is enjoying a strong run of form on the DP World Tour with four successive top-15 finishes, including a victory in the Middle East."