AT&T Byron Nelson First-Round Leader Tips: Wolff can win Thursday race

Dave Tindall
11 May 2022
3:00 min read

Matthew Wolff can start fast

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The PGA Tour heads to Texas and Dave Tindall has three picks to be First-Round leader at TPC Craig Ranch...

"We're never quite sure what we're going to get but he should be sharper than last week where he was playing for the first time in a month and the lengthy TPC Craig Ranch should suit Wolff who ranks 8th in Driving Distance."

Back Matthew Wolff each-way at 81.080/1

Weather forecast for Thursday: It's going to be a hot one in Dallas, with temperatures starting in the 80s and climbing into the 90s in the afternoon. It's Texas so there's a steady wind of around 15mph. The very early starters may have it slightly lighter for an hour but it's fairly consistent throughout the day.

Make it Matt

Matthew Wolff's early PGA Tour career is a mix of highs and lows but that sort of profile makes him a good bet in this market.

Go back to last August's WGC-St Jude Invitational and there are plenty of low opening laps sprinkled around.

A 64 put him second after 18 holes at TPC Southwind while a stunning 61 gave him the first-round lead at Mayakoba just five starts later.

Between those two, another Thursday 64 placed Wolff fifth on the R1 leaderboard at the Shriners in Las Vegas.

It's been the usual Wolff rollercoaster in 2022 but the good stuff includes a day one 65 at the Saudi International and another opening lap of 65 at last week's Wells Fargo Championship which put him third after the first round.

We're never quite sure what we're going to get but he should be sharper than last week (he slipped to T25 at the finish) where he was playing for the first time in a month and the lengthy TPC Craig Ranch should suit Wolff who ranks 8th in Driving Distance.

Wolff, an appealing 80/1 shot, tees off at 12.55pm local.

Riley can roar early

Davis Riley helped land us some each-way cash with a top five in the Mexico Open last time and prior to that he'd finished fourth alongside Will Zalatoris at the Zurich Classic pairs event.

In other words, he heads to Dallas in fine form.

Riley is another with an afternoon tee-time at 12.22pm and that may be the ideal time for him. Why? He's generally a good starter due to his ranking of 34th in the overall R1 Scoring Average charts but on the Late R1 Scoring Average table he's 14th.

He boosted his position in that list when shooting an opening 65 from an afternoon slot at the Valspar Championship to sit fifth. Riley's third-round 62 there showcased his ability to shoot the lights out.

With his confidence up and hit putter hot (Riley ranked 1st for SG: Putting in Mexico last time) he's well worth a R1 leader punt at 50s.

Aaron looks a Wise play

From the early wave, the one I like is Aaron Wise at 50s.

I tipped him in this market at 40/1 in the Mexico Open and he shot a 65 to finish tied seventh after round one.

A closing 64 secured a top six finish for the week and built on a top 20 at Hilton Head.

Wise is a birdie machine and there are plenty of low first-round scores when thumbing through his stats. They include an opening 64 at this week's course last year, a number which put him in third spot.

He was also second after round one of the following week's US PGA Champoinship, a position he occupied again thanks to a Thursday 63 at the Mayakoba in November.

Wise's average score from a Thursday a.m. tee-time is 67.38 and that ranks him fifth for Early R1 Scoring Average.