In addition to last year's renewal, TPC Craig Ranch was used for the Korn Ferry Tour Championship in 2008 and 2012.
Craig Ranch played as a par 71 on the Korn Ferry Tour with the 12th hole playing as a tough par four but it was a par five last year, averaging 4.49 and only the par five 18th played easier at 4.45.
Weather Forecast
TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 12:45 UK time on Thursday behind the Red Button with main coverage beginning at 18:30
Last Six Winners with Pre-event Exchange Prices
2021 - KH Lee -25 250.0249/1 2019 - Sung-Hoon Kang -23 180.0179/1 2018 - Aaron Wise -23 80.079/1 2017 - Billy Horschel -12 (playoff) 200.0199/1 2016 - Sergio Garcia -15 (playoff) 30.029/1 2015 - Steven Bowditch -18 (par 69 rounds 3, 4 & 5) 500.0499/1
What Will it Take to Win the Byron Nelson Championship?
We don't have much to go on but we do have three results to evaluate so here are the leaderboards with stats for the two editions of the Korn Ferry Championship held here, as well as last year's edition of this event.
2008 Korn Ferry Championship 1st Matt Bettencourt -17 DD 8th, DA 39th, GIR 12th, SC 17th, PA 1st 2nd Jeff Klauk -16 DD 31st, DA 4th, GIR 19th, SC 1st, PA 12th T3rd Colt Knost -15 DD 28th, DA 2nd, GIR 2nd, SC 5th, PA 27th T3rd Bryce Molder -15 DD 25th, DA 11th, GIR 3rd, SC 10th, PA 8th 5th Peter Tomasulo -14 DD 24th, DA 20th, GIR 6th, SC 38th, PA 17th
2012 Korn Ferry Championship 1st Justin Bolli -16 DD 43rd, DA 48th, GIR 4th, SC 39th, PA 6th 2nd James Hahn -14 DD 14th, DA 15th, GIR 11th, SC 5th, PA 1st T3rd Adam Hadwin -13 DD 24th, DA 15th, GIR 11th, SC 1st, PA 9th T3rd Morgan Hoffman -13 DD 7th, DA 19th, GIR 11th, SC 11th, PA 1st 5th Justin Hicks -12 DD 28th, DA 2nd, GIR 1st, SC 47th, PA 8th
2021 Byron Nelson Championship 1st KH Lee -25 DD 35th, DA 41st, GIR 5th, SC 18th, PA 2nd 2nd Sam Burns -22 DD 27th, DA 49th, GIR 5th, SC 18th, PA 27th T3rd Daniel Berger -21 DD 25th, DA 9th, GIR 4th, SC 60th, PA 7th T3rd Patton Kizzire -21 DD 17th, DA 66th, GIR 11th, SC 10th, PA 22nd T3rd Charl Schwartzel -21 DD 7th, DA 53rd, GIR 8th, SC 5th, PA 46th T3rd Scott Stallings -21 DD 8th, DA 49th, GIR 17th, SC 38th, PA 1st
DD = Driving Distance DA = Driving Accuracy GIR = Greens In Regulation SC = Scrambling PA = Putting Average
We can ignore the driving metrics with neither length nor accuracy proving key in any of the three events and the most important stat appears to be Greens In Regulation.
Just looking at the three top-fives above show that accurate approach play was important but it's even more obvious looking at the expanded leaderboards. Kyle Reifers finished tied for 11th when ranking first for GIR in 2008 and in 2012. The top-10 for GIR all finished inside the top-18 places.
Will Zalatoris could only finish tied for 17th when ranking number one for GIR last year but in addition to the first and second ranking tied fifth for GIR. The three players to rank second, third and fourth all finished inside the top-10.
The top-tree and ties last year ranked second, first, fourth, fifth, 19th and 26th for Strokes Gained Tee to Green so finding the dancefloors is important. But with so many contenders hitting so many greens, it's no surprise to see that putting is also key.
I've written on numerous occasions how tough these low scoring birdie-fests are to predict as all it takes is a hotter than average flat-stick. That appears to be what happened with KH Lee last year.
There isn't an awful lot to split any of the pros on the PGA Tour so a small and subtle change can make all the difference and Lee's alteration last year was a new putter in the bag.
Is There an Identikit Winner?
Texans usually fare well in their home state - they have an outstanding record, for example, in the Valero Texas Open - but they don't have a great recent record in this event.
Overseas players have a strong record in the tournament though and only nine of the 21 winners this century have been American. If recent history is to be believed, it's the Australians and the Koreans who deserve most respect.
Aussies always tend to do well in windy Texas and we've seen three recent winners in the shape of Adam Scott, Jason Day and Steven Bowditch. Lee is the third Korean to win in eight renewals. Like the Aussie contingent, the Koreans clearly enjoy the windy conditions too.
Great Event for Outsiders
Sergio Garcia is the only recent winner who was fairly-well fancied, going off at 30.029/1, and this has been a terrific tournament for longshots with seven of the last eight winners all matched at a triple-figure price before the off.
Aaron Wise only went off at 80.079/1 four years ago but he was well-supported having been matched for plenty at between 100.099/1 and 120.0119/1 and the other six went off at huge odds.
I've listed the Exchange prices for the last six winners above, and it's perhaps worth noting that Lee was matched a high of 500.0499/1 last year, but the two winners prior to Steven Bowditch in 2015 both went off at juicy odds too. Brendan Todd was a 170.0169/1 chance in 2014 and Sang-Moon Bae was a largely unconsidered 200.0199/1 chance 12 months earlier.
Keep an Eye on the Market for Next Week
As highlighted in the De-brief earlier, money came for the Wells Fargo Championship winner, Max Homa, in next week's US PGA Championship and anyone in-contention here will move in that market too.
Conversely, the current US PGA favourite, Scheffler, may lengthen in price if he doesn't perform in his home state this week. You can guarantee that anyone who contends strongly here, however, will shorten up considerably so keeping an eye on the USPGA Championship market is imperative if one or two of your fancies for Southern Hills is playing this week.
In-Play Tactics
Low scoring birdie-fests tend to suit frontrunners, so it makes sense to concentrate on the leaders from early on. Having sat tied for seventh and just two off the lead, the front two were in the van throughout (inside the front three from halfway) last year and it was a similar story here on the Korn Ferry Tour.
Matt Bettencourt was four off the lead after rounds one and two in 2008, but he was never outside the top-10 places and he was tied for the lead with a round to go. Four years later, Boli won from two back after three rounds, having led after round one and having been inside the front three places all week.
Market Leaders
World number one, Scottie Scheffler, heads the market and he has some very solid form in his home state.
Scheffler won the WGC Matchplay at Austin Country Club back in March having finished runner-up a year earlier and having finished second at the Houston Open in his penultimate Texan start last November so he's clearly comfortable playing at home.
Prior to his 18th place finish in the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, playing alongside fellow Texan, Ryan Palmer, last time out, Scheffler had been on a remarkable run of form since the start of February. Will he bounce back to that sort of level here?
He won the Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the Match Play and the US Masters all in the space of two months. His 57th at the Players Championship was his only disappointing performance but he might be one to swerve this week after a lengthy break.
Scheffler finished only 47th in this event last year and (as there is with all the fancied contenders at next week's US PGA Championship) there's a distinct possibility that this week is all about preparing for next.
Justin Thomas has 2022 form figures reading 5-20-8-6-33-3-25-8-35 and his tee-to green numbers are superb. But this is his first visit to the venue and that's a slight negative.
Jordan Spieth was ninth last year after a fast start and he tends to play well in his home state but he's looking to go back-to-back having won the RBC Heritage last time out.
Dustin Johnson and Xander Schauffele are both making their course debuts and Sam Burns makes more appeal after last year's fourth. Having won the Valspar Championship in his previous outing, Burns was matched at a low of 2.0421/20 last year but having led by a stroke with a round to go, he ran out steam on Sunday.
Selections
I came close to backing Joaquin Niemann, Will Zalatoris and Aaron Wise, for various reasons.
Niemann has been in fine fettle this year and he enjoys a low-scoring birdie-fest. Zalatoris is putting much better of late and he showed an aptitude for the venue 12 months ago. The former event winner, Wise, caught the eye last time out in Mexico.
But given this looks like such a great event for outsiders, I'm going to be backing a few longshots only before the off and they'll all feature in the Find Me a 100 Winner column either tomorrow or Wednesday.
*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter
Cash out when you want with no suspensions on your outright and each way golf bets on the Betfair Sportsbook. T&Cs apply.
T&Cs apply.
.728x410.jpg)
