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Golf Tips: Best bets for Arnold Palmer Invitational and Puerto Rico Open

Max Liu
01 March 2023
3:00 min read

Jon Rahm is the pre-tournament favourite at this week's Arnold Palmer

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The best bets for this week's PGA Tour events the Arnold Palmer Invitational and Puerto Rico Open from Steve Rawlings, Dave Tindall and more experts...

Steve backs Matt Fitzpatrick at Bay Hill
Zalatatoris leads Dave's three e-w picks
Kirk backed at 50/1 to kick on in R1
Chappell backed at 119/1 in Puerto Rico
Course info, form and ones to watch

Arnold Palmer Invitational: Fitzpatrick to get going

Steve Rawlings says: "Although the last two winners have been Americans, overseas players have a great record here.

"Norway's Viktor Hovland was alongside Hatton and Billy Horschel in second last year, the second and third in 2021 and the first three home in 2020 were all from overseas and, having won the Honda Classic the week before, Keith Mitchell, who finished tied sixth, was the only American inside the top-nine places four years.

"The five winners before Bryson were all overseas players and that 2019 edition was the first event since the 2010 Open Championship that no Americans were in the top-five in a PGA Tour event. And it was the first time in at least 15 years that no American had finished inside the top-five in a PGA Tour event on American soil...

"Last year's US Open winner, Matthew Fitzpatrick, hasn't really got going yet this year.

"He finished a respectable seventh at the Sentry Tournament of Champions in his first start of 2023 but he's missed two cuts since with an uninspiring 29^th at the Phoenix Open in-between the two weekend's off.

"That's quite a negative but his course form is so strong that I'm happy to chance him at 44.043/1."

Steve's bet: Back Matthew Fitzpatrick @ 44.043/1

Arnold Palmer Invitational Each-Way Tips: Zalatoris to be king of the Hill

Dave Tindall says: "My bet from the top end of the market is World No.7 Will Zalatoris at 20/1.

"Scheffler ranked 1st in Strokes Gained Approach when winning at Bay Hill 12 months ago while 2020 champion Tyrrell Hatton was 2nd in that category. Corey Conners was 1st for SG: Approach in 2021 and finished third. At 89th in SGA this season, Zalatoris perhaps doesn't leap off the page but there was a real uptick in his performance in that regard at Riviera last time.

"Zalatoris ranked 10th for SG: Approach at the Genesis Invitational, hitting a series of quality iron shots, especially in round four where he closed with a 64 to bank fourth place.

"History says strong iron play and putting make the difference for Zalatoris so it's pleasing to see that he's recorded positive SG: Putting figures in all four of his starts since the calendar flipped to 2023."

Dave's bet: Back Will Zalatoris each-way @ 21.020/1

Arnold Palmer Invitational First-Round Leader Tips: Carry on Kirk

Dave Tindall says: "What's the most likely thing to happen to Chris Kirk after he ended his eight-year wait for a PGA Tour win in dramatic style at last week's Honda Classic?

"It's easy to indulge in cod psychology and blurt out 'mental let-down' and maybe it will be the case that his focus will be insufficient to do much this week. But there's another scenario that says he rides the wave of confidence and bursts out of the blocks at Bay Hill.

Chris Kirk at the Honda.jpg

"And why not? Kirk won on a tough Florida track last week and that's the deal again this week.

"What's more, Kirk is a big fan of this par 72. He made the top five last year and that was the American's fifth top 15 in his last six appearances at Arnie's event."

Dave's bet: Back Chris Kirk each-way @ 51.050/1

Arnold Palmer Invitational 2023: Course and current form stats

Andy Swales: "Large water hazards come into play on eight holes, while there are a handful of interesting dog legs too. The various changes upped Bay Hill's total par from 71 to 72 and, more recently, the Bermuda grass greens have all been re-surfaced.

"This parkland course is located around eight miles south-west of downtown Orlando, close to Florida's Butler Lake. Bay Hill is a course which tends to get tougher the closer a golfer gets to the green. Hitting fairways is generally not overcomplicated, but finding the putting surfaces is certainly more problematic...

"Jason Day has shown some encouraging form this year, and has already risen more than 50 places up the World Ranking to No 47 - since the start of 2023. A former world No 1, and the 2016 winner at Bay Hill, his last three outings have yielded finishes of 9th-5th-7th."

Andy's Player to Watch: Jason Day @ 32.031/1

Puerto Rico Open: Veteran outsiders worth chancing

Steve Rawlings says: "Out of form veterans seem to do really well here. Playing on the final start of his Minor Medical Extension, Brehm won at the age of 35 last year (his only PGA Tour win to date, DA Points had just turned 40 when he won six years ago, and the 2015 champ, Alex Cejka, was winning on the PGA Tour for the first time at the age of 45.

COCO BEACH 2023 3.jpg

"The first five editions went to experienced vets, although none of them were prolific, and the top-class Grace, Finau and Hovland are the only Puerto Rico Open winners to win anywhere else subsequently.

"Grace was very well backed two years ago, Hovland went of favourite 12 months earlier, Finau was matched at a high of 55.0, and Chesson Hadley was around that price ten years ago too, but every other winner has been matched at a triple-figure price before the off...

"I'll have another look at the market before the off and if Brice Garnett drifts a bit I'll play him."

Find Me a 100 Winner: Chappell can contend again at 119/1

Steve Rawlings says: "The 2017 Texas Open winner Kevin Chappell has lost his way since finishing sixth in the Open Championship in 2018 and in three previous visits here he's never made it through to the weekend.

"But he caught the eye last week in the Honda with three rounds in the 60s after an opening 72 to finish in a tie for 29th.

"He needs to build on that to win but, with two top-seven finishes in the Arnold Palmer Invitational, in 2016 and 2018, he'll feel that he should be operating at a higher grade in Florida this week and that might just inspire him."

Steve's bet: Back Kevin Chappell @ 120.0119/1

Puerto Rico Open 2023: Course and current form stats

Andy Swales says: "Heavily influenced by coastal breezes, which sweep in from the Atlantic Ocean, Grand Reserve is a low-lying layout where water comes into play on 14 holes.

"Fairways are reasonably generous, with areas of dense vegetation dotted around the venue. This long layout certainly encourages players to launch into their tee shots.

"All previous tournaments have been staged in either February or March, and held the same week as another more prestigious PGA Tour event...

"Ryan Gerard is the Monday qualifier who finished fourth at last week's Honda Classic. This remarkable performance followed his tie-for-third on the Korn Ferry Tour two weeks' earlier. Can the 23-year-old maintain his good form in this week's seriously mediocre field?"

Andy's Player to Watch: Ryan Gerard @ 32.031/1

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